Per The Economist: “Ukraine will need until 2026 or 2027 to launch a powerful counteroffensive. According to the newspaper, Ukraine will have to continue reducing Russian combat power. It would also require killing or seriously wounding 50,000 Russian soldiers every six months to prevent Russia from building a stronger army.”
There is one detail that The Economist did not cover: the shortage of personnel in the ranks of the Ukrainian army. Kiev to try to bring home men of military age in recent days has suspended the provision of consular services to Ukrainian citizens of military age who live abroad and for admission by the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry, the measure: “is due to preparations for the entry into force of the law on new mobilization rules”.
The Wall Street Journal talks about personnel shortages: “The Ukrainian armed forces are going through a phase of shortage of ranks, which has led to their impoverishment after several months of intense fighting against the Russian armed forces”, according to the American newspaper.
According to the WSJ, “military personnel of the Ukrainian Armed Forces are forced to remain on the front lines for 10 to 15 days, although periods at the front are scheduled for no more than 5 days. Furthermore, the Ukrainian army is short of medicine, food and water. At the same time, wounded Ukrainian soldiers find themselves in a difficult situation, since, as the newspaper notes, “no one can reach them,” which is why they die, even if it was initially possible to operate. In addition to this, the WSJ quotes the words of the Australian general, now a member of the US Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Mick Ryan, who noted that the time has come for Ukraine when, regardless of aid having received American aid, Kiev will face a choice: save the lives of military personnel or fight to retain the territory.”
On April 26 in Odessa there was a raid by officers of the military registration and enlistment office and the police on passengers of minibuses.
Another problem Ukraine is facing is military disobedience, “Ukrainian courts have begun to condemn military personnel for refusing to carry out command orders during attempts to hold positions in the village of Krynki in the Kherson region,” he reported the Ukrainian news agency Strana.
Ukrainians can also be fired from their jobs if they remain silent about their ties with people on the territory “temporarily occupied” by the Russians, the Rada has adopted the law on the matter.
Poland said it was ready to help Ukraine repatriate men of military age, source Minister of Defense, but the initiative was then blocked by the Ministry of the Interior which declared: “Ukrainians without passports will be provided protection in Poland. Poland will protect its rights and will not transfer private data to anyone, including Ukraine.” Lithuania is on the same wavelength.
And while Kiev is grappling with the military personnel problem, the United States has prepared the new aid package. The US Department of Defense has explained for what purposes long-range ATACMS missiles were supplied to Ukraine, writes The New York Times.
A senior US defense official said that: “The goal of the new long-range systems is to increase pressure on Crimea, the center of Russia’s air and land forces, “where Russia now has a relatively safe haven.” However, Pentagon representatives refused to reveal the exact number of long-range systems sent to Ukraine.
Graziella Giangiulio
