As the year draws to a close, Russian analysts have begun to take stock of the situation on the front line of what they call SVO, Special Operation, and what Vladimir Putin recently called a civil war. Among Russian analysts, the first to take stock is Boris Rozhin, who headlines one of his articles: ‘The year ends in Russia’s favour, but we must not fall into euphoria’.
The main achievement of the Russian army, according to Rozhin, was to win two major battles: the defensive operation at Zaporozhye, which had serious strategic consequences for the Ukrainians, and the battle of Bachmut. The total number of Ukrainian casualties in these two battles was about 190,000: 125,000 in the southern direction and 65,000 in the battle of Bachmut.
The Ukrainians, on the other hand, according to the Russian analyst, ‘did not achieve comparable success in 2023, despite their attempts to do so. So, from a purely military point of view, the year ends in Russia’s favour.
Although the Western media speak of a minimal change (in percentage terms) in territorial control by 2023. For Rozhin, there is no stalemate. On the contrary: ‘Towards the end of the year we are seeing the consequences of the failure of the summer offensive of the Ukrainian armed forces, which have already led to a number of advances at the tactical level in favour of the Russian armed forces, as well as the emergence of conditions for a more serious advance of the Russian armed forces in a number of directions: Avdiivka, Maryinka, Bachmut, Svatove-Kupyansk. So the front has become more mobile than it was in October.
However, there are clouds on the horizon that need to be dispelled as soon as possible, according to the analyst: “However, there are objective trends towards positionality linked to the growing role of drones, technical reconnaissance and the problem of force concentration in the context of the increasing effectiveness of long-range precision weapons.
Not only did the summer offensive in Ukraine fail, but the culprit is now being hunted. The numerous scandals involving overpricing or the disappearance of weapons do not help matters. According to Rozhin, the Ukrainian problems are also the cause of an internal political crisis in the US. Actually, we would say that perhaps the opposite is true: Ukraine, as well as the Israel-Hamas issue and Taiwan, are once again political exploitation in view of the upcoming round of US elections.
And then the analyst continues: “Of course, one should not confuse a won battle with a won war. In 2024, the Ukrainians will naturally try to take into account the unsuccessful experience of 2023, so one should not be euphoric about the current problems. There is a long and serious struggle ahead, in which the US and NATO will try to make up for their failures. According to Rozhin, the issue of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is not destined to end with 2024; on the contrary, it will be the driving force behind it in the years to come.
“The defeat of the Ukrainian armed forces in the south raises the question of replacing Kiev’s personnel with the US, and arms supplies to Ukraine will certainly continue, despite the current problems with the allocation of official funds for 2024. Negotiations between Republicans and Democrats are ongoing and are likely to be resolved by a compromise by the end of January 2024. In the meantime, the US remains constrained in its ability to fund Ukraine and is relying on its European satellites to increase supplies, which is already happening. In the long run, it would even be beneficial for the US to reduce its financial involvement and shift the main costs to Europe, further increasing Europe’s financial and military dependence on the US. One should not seriously believe that Ukraine will be completely removed from the list.
Nor does Rozhin believe there will be a coup in Ukraine, as the Ukrainian media are suggesting: “A military coup in Ukraine is only relevant if the US decides to get rid of Zelensky (South Vietnam scenario). An independent coup in Ukraine without US approval is impossible. The Zelensky gang is aware of this threat, which is why we are witnessing a campaign to discredit Zaluzhny and attempts to get rid of him, even though the US has made it clear that it is completely satisfied with Zaluzhny at the moment.
“In this regard, it cannot be ruled out that the ‘accidental death’ of Zaluzhny could be a way of solving the strategic problem of Zelensky’s gang. The main thing to remember is that this is a showdown between American puppets. Zaluzhny and Zelensky are not process servers, so from the US point of view they are completely interchangeable parts.
Graziella Giangiulio
