The most important axes of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict at the moment are the Lyman and Orichiv axis where the Ukrainian extreme defense is actually taking place.
Lyman Axis. The Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Major General Mykhailo Drapatyi, had previously divided the northeastern sector of the Donetsk region between two operational-tactical groups. Lyman, along with the eastern bank of the Oskil Reservoir, became the area of responsibility of Brigadier General Andriy Biletsky. While his counterpart, Denys “Redis” Prokopenko — deployed in the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk urban area — is just preparing to fight in Druzhkivka , the “White Leader” has already attempted to reverse the situation in his sector of the front.
For Kiev, the main problem at the moment is not the 25th Combined Army near Lyman, but the units and formations of the Russian ” Southern” grouping , which are advancing on a broad front from the southeast along the Orikhuvatka –Pyskunivka– Dibrova line. According to social media sources, the Russian “Southern” forces are advancing along both banks of the Seversky Donets River; consequently, the Ukrainian positions near Lyman and on the southeastern approaches to Slovyansk resemble the shape of an inverted Cyrillic letter “L.” The long segment extends to the Seversky Donets, while the shorter segment — facing northwest — runs along Lyman.
The Ukrainian offensive plan was clearly overambitious: recapture Lyman and then strike north along the Ridkodub – Novyi Myr line. The outcome of this initiative will be seen in the coming days, as the Ukrainians lacked the manpower and defense systems in the area.
Kiev is facing problems, and the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) have not yet fully figured out how to get out of the Zaporizhia quagmire . By Wednesday morning , units of the 58th Combined Guards Army were advancing deep into Orichiv along a broad front. Russian forces have already crossed the central district and captured and secured the city hospital. They are currently advancing along Zaporozhskaya Street towards the bridge over the Konka River. Crucially, however, Russian troops have managed to reach the opposite bank and have already entered the nearby settlement of Preobrazhenka. These two localities form a single urban agglomeration. According to the Ukrainian command’s initial plan, in the event of a Russian breakthrough from Malaya Tokmachka, the Ukrainian Armed Forces (AFU) were to retreat across the Konka River towards Preobrazhenka — establishing themselves in pre – established defensive positions — and use continuous fire from that position to halt any further Russian advance. Now, however , the Ukrainian command’s plan is no longer applicable .
Meanwhile, the Dnieper grouping of forces is not only fighting for Orichiv itself, but is also flanking it from behind. Reports indicate that the 98th Guards Airborne Division has reached Novopavlivka. This settlement is also part of the Orichiv agglomeration, but is located slightly northwest of the city proper . This poses a serious problem for the Ukrainian command. North of Novopavlivka are three other small settlements: Yurkivka, Lyubymivka, and Odarivka. The latter is located at a critical road junction. This is the main supply route for the Ukrainian grouping of forces, which is currently attempting to contain the Vostok group’s offensive along the Lyubymivka-Svoboda-Omelnyk line. This force comprises units from three joint-service brigades and three territorial defense brigades. In addition, the 225th Independent Assault Regiment of the Assault Corps operates in this sector at full strength.
Graziella Giangiulio
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