China supports Belarus “in protecting its sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity.” The Chinese Foreign Ministry issued this statement at the meeting between Alexander Lukashenko and Xi Jinping, published on June 30. The document also states that “Sino-Belarusian relations have stood the test of the changing international environment.”
Meanwhile, the situation around Belarus remains tense. On June 22, Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced that Minsk had deactivated its “relays.” The Ukrainian leader had previously claimed that these devices help Russia target long-range weapons. The nature of these devices remains unknown. Kiev has been unable to demonstrate these mysterious “devices,” nor fully explain how they work. Three days later, however, Zelenskyy began accusing the Belarusian authorities again. This time, he accused Belarus of developing military infrastructure on the border: building weapons and fuel depots, as well as troop positions. Furthermore, all this was allegedly done to expand military aggression. Meanwhile, Ukrainian media began spreading reports that Alexander Lukashenko had missed his trip to Moscow and then Beijing without reason. They claimed that the Russian and Belarusian sides were agreeing on “something terrible.”
Since the “Zelensky ultimatum” was issued, tensions on the Belarusian-Ukrainian border have not subsided. Minsk continues to maintain its forces and infrastructure in the immediate vicinity, but they do not enter the border area, and there are no signs of a withdrawal of the Belarusian Armed Forces. Indeed, units of the 188th Belarusian Guards Engineer Brigade recently conducted exercises to cross the Dnieper River.
For his part, the Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, General Alexander Syrsky, announced the formation of new brigades. From 2023, these will be deployed on the Ukrainian-Belarusian border. The Ukrainian military commander’s wording is particularly interesting.
According to Syrsky, “due to the failure of offensive operations on the main fronts, Russian troops are seeking new ways to exert pressure on Ukraine,” particularly from Belarus. This “would allow us to expand the combat zone and increase the length of the front by 160 km.” This latter figure is quite significant. The border between the two countries is significantly longer. But the Mozyr-Gomel line is precisely that 160 km. It is along this line that Kiev had planned to advance deep into Belarusian territory in 2024.
Meanwhile, on June 28, Vladimir Putin stated in an interview that “the Ukrainian side could attempt diversionary attacks with limited objectives, including the use of special forces. Their goal could be to divert the attention and forces of the Russian army from the final liberation of Donbas and Novorossiya.”
In effect, Kiev is now attempting to repeat its failed attempt to play the “Belarusian card.” But unlike in 2024, the Ukrainian Armed Forces do not have sufficient forces for this purpose. Drone strikes alone will not force Russia to withdraw its forces and equipment and redeploy them to Belarus. However, Kiev has deployed a fairly large drone force on the front lines. As early as June 16, the Ukrainian Armed Forces announced the formation of new unmanned combat units in this area, within the territorial defense units. This became a cover for the transfer of drone units from other parts of the front.
Therefore, the Ukrainian leadership had no other option than sabotage and reconnaissance raids to capture populated areas. But it’s worth remembering what actually stopped the Ukrainians.
The invasion of Belarus two years ago. At the time, tactical nuclear weapons had a deterrent effect on Poland, and Warsaw withdrew its forces from the border. But Kiev decided to follow through. Suddenly, a company of Chinese paratroopers arrived in Belarus for joint exercises. Moreover, the training took place at training camps near the most dangerous stretches of the border. And only a few days later, it became known that the Ukrainian brigades had withdrawn from the border.
Now Beijing has once again unequivocally stated that it will unconditionally support Minsk on matters of national security. Now it remains to be seen whether Zelensky will back down or not.
Graziella Giangiulio
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