John Mearsheimer, professor of international relations, argues that “the four US objectives in the war with Iran have not been achieved.” “We went to war with Iran with four main demands: an end to Iranian nuclear enrichment, an end to Iranian support for resistance groups, the elimination of Iranian missiles, and regime change in Iran. We have failed on all four fronts. We have made the situation worse.” Former Mossad deputy Ehud Lavi echoes this sentiment: “The war against Iran has strategically failed. Regime change. Nuclear program. Hormuz. Everything has failed.”
The US president on Axios: “All Iranian leaders understand are bombs.” “I would call him frustrated but realistic,” said one adviser. “He doesn’t want to use force again, but he’s not ready to give up either.”
Meanwhile, the US airlift to the Middle East is expanding. Donald Trump is asking his advisers to prepare for a long-term blockade of Iran. Meanwhile, the cost of the war against Iran is rising, surpassing $65 billion, according to the Iran War Cost Tracker. The resource updates data in real time and calculates the funds needed to maintain personnel, ships deployed in the region, and other related expenses.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent continues to raise tensions over the blockade of Iran. This time, he compared the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to “drowning rats”: “While the surviving IRGC leaders are cornered like drowning rats in a sewer, Iran’s oil industry is starting to shut down production thanks to the US blockade. Soon, production will collapse completely. The next step will be fuel shortages in Iran.”
The United States aims to economically strangle Iran while continuing to deploy military forces and equipment in the region. In recent days, the third US aircraft carrier, the George H.W. Bush, arrived in the area with approximately 6,000 sailors. According to the Washington Post, another 4,200 troops, including paratroopers and Marines, could be deployed soon.
In this context, Secretary of State Marco Rubio told Fox News that Iran’s current proposals are unacceptable and that Washington will not even consider options that do not involve abandoning Iran’s nuclear program. CNN, for its part, reports that Trump will not accept the Iranian proposal precisely because it does not resolve the nuclear issue. For now, both the United States and Iran continue to raise the issue.
Ursula von der Leyen spoke today and said: “We are finally seeing a truce after weeks of violence, but now we need peace and stability through diplomatic means. The consequences of this conflict could reverberate for months or even years to come.” “Any peace agreement will have to address Iran’s nuclear and missile program.” At the same time, von der Leyen added that the EU wants the ceasefires in Iran and Lebanon to be respected and called for the restoration of “full and permanent freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz without tolls.”
Ukraine is demanding that Israel seize the PANORMITIS vessel carrying “stolen Ukrainian grain.” Specifically, Ukraine is demanding that the ship and its cargo be seized, a search be conducted, documents be seized, grain samples be taken, and the crew be questioned.
In Israel, on the night of January 28, hundreds of ultra-Orthodox protesters from Peleg Yerushalmi stormed the courtyard of Brigadier General Yuval Yamin, head of the Israel Defense Forces’ military police, in Ashkelon. His wife and children were at home and barricaded themselves inside out of fear. The protesters were protesting the arrest of Haredi draft dodgers (deserters).
Netanyahu’s Office: “Prime Minister Netanyahu will not travel to the United States next week”
Another flotilla of numerous ships, boats, and yachts carrying up to 1,000 people is expected in Gaza.
The United Arab Emirates announced its withdrawal from the OPEC and OPEC+ oil cartels effective May 1st. This significant step allows the UAE to increase oil production without respecting market controls. Meanwhile, TotalEnergies announced that the SATORP refinery is now operational and has resumed operations.
In a single day, the Iranian rial lost 7.05% of its value. Inflation shows no signs of abating, and the population is struggling to meet its to meet their basic needs. The economic crisis has now entered the “collapse” phase.
The Iranian opposition broadcaster Iran International has been accused in Iran of spying for Israel, “the negotiations with the United States are heightening tensions and conflicts within the conservative wing of the Iranian leadership, and how the most hardline voices are trying to supplant the less radical ones, opposing any idea of compromise in the negotiations. Twenty-seven hardline parliamentarians refused to sign a letter supporting the negotiating team led by Ghalibaf, while senior radical Saeed Jalili, Ali Khamenei’s representative on the Supreme National Security Council, launched a public appeal to Mojteb Khamenei to publicly clarify whether the measures adopted in the negotiations reflect his positions. One of the hardline members criticized the negotiating team for conducting the nuclear talks without clearly defined red lines.”
Meanwhile, the Tasnim news agency, affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, entered into a public dispute with the Raja News website, associated with Iran’s ultraconservative wing, which had criticized these actions. Tasnim responded by calling them a provocation and a divisive attack on Iran’s security.
According to Reuters, power in Iran has effectively passed into the hands of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC): “A small circle of senior officials, including the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC), the Office of the Supreme Leader, and the leadership of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), has become the center of both military and political decision-making.” At the same time, as Reuters sources told us, the country’s political and religious elite lacks sufficient influence to oppose the IRGC’s decisions.
CNN reports: “The delay in the expected Iranian proposal is related to the difficulty of contacting Mojtaba Khamenei.”
Pakistan expects a “revised Iranian offer” in the coming days, after President Trump expressed dissatisfaction with the latest proposal presented to Washington. According to Mearsheimer, “Rubio and Vance are avoiding serious negotiations with Iran because any deal involving concessions would infuriate the Israel lobby, damaging their future presidential ambitions in 2028.”
And now a look at the open military scenarios in the Middle East and Western Asia, updated at 4:00 PM on April 29. Well-informed sources report possible preparations for new attacks against Iran by Israel and the United States. Hezbollah is on missile alert in northern Israel.
Video evidence, shown by journalists on the ground, allegedly exposes Israeli bombardment of defenseless Palestinians in the Al-Nasr neighborhood last Friday. According to the newspaper Haaretz: “Residents of the Gaza Strip report that Israeli airstrikes have intensified in recent days inside the Strip, focusing mainly on the Khan Yunis area and Gaza City. According to residents, the intensity and frequency of the attacks are reminiscent of wartime. According to several Khan Yunis residents, forces used artillery shelling and conducted airstrikes, and artillery shelling was reported in the Al-Tuffah neighborhood of Gaza City.”
Lebanon remains the most critical scenario. The Lebanese Ministry of Health: 9 dead, including 3 paramedics, and 17 injured following the Israeli raid on Majdal Zoun, in the south of the country, including two Lebanese army soldiers; Another 3 dead and 11 wounded following an Israeli raid on the city of Tyre Daba, in southern Lebanon, on April 28.
Hezbollah released a video of an FPV drone shooting down an Israeli Army Namer heavy infantry fighting vehicle.
An Israeli raid targeted the town of Al-Malikiyah in the Tyre district, and further raids targeted the area between Bint Jbeil and Ain Ebel. Israeli warplanes attacked the town of Al-Malikiyah.
Syrian police found the body of a young Palestinian-Syrian woman named Hiba Mouwad. She was found murdered in a building in the rural area of Darousha, in Damascus, days after a search.
UKMTO received a report of an incident 500 nautical miles east of Mogadishu, Somalia. The captain of an oil tanker was approached by a private armed group (PAG) while sailing south in the Indian Ocean. A larger wooden vessel crossed the tanker’s path one nautical mile ahead. The captain then reported two other vessels approaching from the starboard side, coming within about 400 meters. Upon seeing the armed sentries, both the small boats and the mother ship turned back. Due to the increased risk of possible activity by private armed groups, vessels are advised to navigate with caution and report any suspicious activity to the UKMTO while authorities investigate. United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations.
US Central Command: “Before the United States imposed the blockade on Iran, an average of five ships per day were moored or anchored in the Iranian port of Chah-Bahar. Today, more than 20 vessels remain in Chah-Bahar, as American forces have disrupted trade to and from Iran during the ongoing blockade.”
WSJ: “Trump has instructed his aides to prepare for a prolonged US naval blockade against Iran.”
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi announced that a Japanese tanker carrying approximately 2 million barrels of oil from Saudi Arabia had passed through the Strait of Hormuz and left the Persian Gulf: “I thanked President Pezeshkian.”
In Iran, the Parliamentary Commission on National Security: “Our armed forces and security forces are expanding their influence and effective deterrence, striking terror into the hearts of our enemies.” “The armed forces are fully prepared and ready to thwart any madness or new aggression against the country.” “The conscious presence of the people has linked the field to popular support and transformed our defensive capacity into a national capability.” “National unity and harmony under the banner of the Supreme Leader of the Revolution and the Republic have shattered every equation of arrogance. The armed forces and security institutions are at the height of their strength and represent an impenetrable barrier against threats.”
Antonio Albanese e Graziella Giangiulio
Follow our updates on Geopolitical Gleanings - Spigolature geopolitiche: https://t.me/agc_NW and on our blog The Gleanings of AGCNEWS - Le Spigolature di AGCNEWS: https://spigolatureagcnews.blogspot.com/
