In recent days, a series of analyzes have appeared in the social sphere on what could happen in the Middle East in light of Israel’s attack on the Iranian Consulate in Damascus. We report some extracts.
“Before trying to anticipate the course of the war and its future and trying to understand Israel’s movements, including the dangerous and unprecedented escalation against the Iranian consulate in Damascus, we must take a step back in an attempt to provide an answer to the question, that is, in what context did the Al-Aqsa Flood operation occur?
Regardless of the direct reasons announced by the Al-Qassam Brigades, the events of October 7 occurred in a specific geopolitical context, and the repercussions of those events are still the main determinant of the course of the battles, along with the facts of the war, the fighting and to the field data.
In recent years there has been a theoretical shift in the balance of power that has governed the Middle Eastern region for decades between Israel and the Arab and Islamic “resistance” forces.
According to the analysis: “These changes coincided with an imbalance in international balances, as a consequence of the emergence of signs of the rise of China and Russia as international poles, and the emergence of traits of decline of American hegemony in the world, accompanied from the occurrence of a strategic vacuum crisis in the region due to the impact of the American withdrawal from Iraq”.
In February 2023, the text, The Road to War, predicted that despite the lack of desire on the part of all actors active in the region for the military option, the regional imbalance could lead to some kind of military escalation in one of the arenas unstable due to the nature of historical contexts; an escalation that leads to stabilizing the changing balance of power on the ground in practice (fighting, ed.) instead of keeping them on a more theoretical level (diplomatic agreements, ed.). The Al-Aqsa Flood fits into this context, without in any way justifying the murder of civilians and soldiers that occurred on 7 October. October 7, therefore, put the regional parties face to face with the need to re-establish new balances of power, and perhaps even before the process of reshaping the entire region.
But the war that has been raging for almost six months has not yet led to defining the boundaries of the new regional balance, since none of the parties has managed to resolve the battle in their favor, nor have the regional resistance forces forced Israel to accept a ceasefire on fire that meets the conditions of the Gaza front, nor have Israel and its allies been able, in return, to nullify the effects of the Al-Aqsa Flood offensive operation or achieve any of its military objectives.
On the contrary, two other strategic dilemmas have appeared on Israel’s table since the beginning of its aggression against Gaza: first, the unity of the fronts of the axis of resistance, and secondly, an unprecedented situation that was created on the southern front of Lebanon, when Hezbollah became the first Arab force capable of emptying most of the settlements in southern Lebanon.
Therefore, as long as the fundamental balances of power in the region over which events are taking place are monitored, and as long as the conflict has not yet reached the stage of resolving the extent and boundaries of these balances, the battles are unlikely to stop.
According to Middle Eastern social analysts, “Israel will begin bombing northern Gaza and southern Lebanon again and will continue to attack Syria. The signs of this expected escalation appeared a few days ago in more than one episode: starting with the violent Israeli raids in the Deir ez-Zor countryside, followed within 48 hours by other powerful raids in the Aleppo countryside, in which a group of a significant number of Syrian army soldiers and Hezbollah militiamen were killed, finally the raid against the Iranian consulate in Damascus where the most important leaders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps who worked on the construction of the axis of the Islamic resistance were killed.”
Accordingly: “These hostile events argue in favor of the view that the recent arms deal provided by the United States to Israel, which included 1,800 heavy bombs, as well as 25 fifth-generation F-35 fighter aircraft, is considered to be aimed at to attack and destroy Iran. In fact, there is no need on the northern Gaza front for F-35 fighters since the fourth generation fighters are more than sufficient for the purpose, after all the Qassam Brigades do not have reliable air defense assets. Not even Hezbollah has air defenses capable of dealing with fourth-generation fighters, especially after two incidents in which Hezbollah shot down two advanced “Hormuz 450” drones with surface-to-air missiles, the latest of which was last February on the area of Iqlim al-Tuffah, in southern Lebanon”.
“All parties see the current war as a fatal war. Based on the balancing of the emerging balance of power in the region, the future of the region will be largely determined for decades to come. This vision is evident in the way Israel behaved in this war, when it took off all its masks and regained its first path in the Nakba war of 1948 and in the period leading up to it, when it paid no attention to the international standards, even formally, not to mention the positioning of the parties. The regional groups traditionally allied with Israel, and those who have recently allied themselves with Tel Aviv, discover, for example, the discourse of the Lebanese isolationists, discover the Israeli right which this time has become more unscrupulous and clear about its choices, in contrast with his speech, which was more conservative during the 2006 Lebanon war.”
Likewise, the discourses of those who have recently allied themselves with Israel, such as the authorities in Ramallah, are more explicit regarding their pro-Israel position: what does it mean for Israel’s intelligence services to send security personnel in coordination with the Shin? Betting on an agency in Gaza to spy on the resistance? What does it mean for the Fatah movement to issue a statement condemning what it calls “Iranian interference in Palestinian affairs”? It bears witness to Iranian support for Palestinian resistance factions with weapons, while those factions are waging a defensive battle against Israel.
The analysis concludes by stating: “All this demonstrates the conformity of the point of view of the regional parties with the analytical reading of the nature of the battle from the perspective of “political realism”. It can therefore be said that the possibilities of an escalation on the northern Israeli front have become high, if they have not already begun. The recent Israeli attack on the Iranian consulate amounts to a declaration of war against the Islamic Republic. In addition to the fact that it occurred in the context of a raging war, which places it among the acts of war and not just an occasional security operation.”
Therefore, Iran is likely to address this dangerous military development in a way that is beneficial to the course of battles. It remains to be seen what the nature and manner in which Iran and the rest of the axis will deal with what could be the beginning of a different phase of the war.
Antonio Albanese e Graziella Giangiulio
