In a statement released by the Israeli military at the end of the third week of the lawful ground operation: “Up to 1,200 Hezbollah members killed by the pager attack.”
The reduction of Hezbollah’s missile capacity to 30%; the defeat of Hezbollah in all border villages. Denial of Hezbollah’s ability to reinforce border villages and fight back.
However, the IDF claimed that they still needed a few weeks to fully secure the border villages (finish clearing and demolitions). Claiming that they are only working to eliminate Hezbollah’s direct ability to mount an invasion into the Galilee. That when the border villages are cleared, they will be able to allow settlers to return north. The war will end when the colonists return home in a few weeks.
Sources close to Hezbollah report that the Party of God responded to these claims in a pointed manner on October 21: “As for the toll, the Israeli military claims to have killed more than 2,000 Hezbollah members. The correct toll is closer to about 1,000 since October 8. This includes the more than 600 deaths acknowledged by Hezbollah and the ongoing war since then. The visually confirmed death toll is about 900, many not yet announced because they have increased inside the border villages.” They continue: “As for Hezbollah’s rocket array, this is an important note. It is certainly true that Hezbollah has lost many rocket and rocket launcher stockpiles during this war and before during those massive waves of attacks on the valleys. However, it is unclear how true it is that they have been reduced to 30 percent compared to before the war. It is clear that Hezbollah is maintaining a launch rate of rockets stable near the 2006 war, which is clearly a bad sign. There was no Iron Dome then, today there is and there is good close air support. However, they maintain this pace because they know the war will not be short and they need to fire at this pace for a long time? We will know in a few months. The IDF assessment is just speculation”.
Finally: “Hezbollah defeated in the border villages? More interesting to note that Hezbollah even lasted 3 weeks in these border villages that are still not safe enough. The IDF boasts that they took a border strip of villages that they attacked for a year and used the most advanced air force and war effort with 5 divisions against a few hundred working in groups of 2-4 in the border area? They have not even taken a few cities yet. In 21 days Hezbollah cleared the outskirts of Qusayr and the city of Qusayr. The IDF fought its way to a victory in the small towns on this border. Yes, these are painful losses, yes, many great men were killed, but the situation is predictable. They have been fighting for 3 weeks and they are not done yet.”
And then the same sources make a historical comparison: “If you checked the time frame of the 2006 war, it is clear that the IDF did not devote so much time, effort and power to individual villages and prioritized the advance. This exposed them to both attacks and vulnerabilities, and that is why the resistance survived longer there because the IDF did not clear the houses in the towns in one go. They were not as effective and focused.”
“The harder the battle is for the IDF, the more they advance. It is true that they are destroying all the villages in the back from the air and trying to eliminate them before they reach them, the battle is even harder for them. Longer logistics lines, better visibility, more people, etc.” “And yes, clearly the IDF is not allowing Hezbollah to reinforce the border villages, the whole south is a killzone.”
“For now, it is true that they are limiting the ground invasion to 3 km, to the first line of villages. They are not yet looking at villages deeper than that. No Bint Jbeil, no Khiyam, no Naqoura, etc. They have concentrated all those forces on those border villages and are closing in on their targets there. Their tactical successes.”
Lebanese sources comment: “However, the air strikes are not what is needed for a limited ground invasion of the south. They attacked Lebanon as if they were marching on Beirut tomorrow, causing imaginable damage everywhere in Lebanon from the south to Beqaa. Well, it is true that they are not marching on Beirut, but they wanted to damage the Lebanese in Beirut and Beqaa. This war was an opportunity to go and take wherever they wanted to attack but they could not for the last 18 years before they were discouraged.”
“So what is their ultimate plan? The current objective of the war is not to defeat Hezbollah. The current goal of the war is to bring the settlers home, but this goal was easily achieved by ending the war in Gaza. But no, the goal is to destroy Gaza and depopulate its entire north, and through this attack Lebanon to severely damage Hezbollah from an army to a small weak militia.”
“And through this, ensure a re-occupation of a border strip in Lebanon and ensure that the war does not end by ensuring the ability to constantly attack Lebanon (from south to north) to ensure that Hezbollah can never rebuild itself to the way it was. Aka endless chaos. They will continue to strike, to try to achieve this goal. For them, they are effectively besieging Lebanon, no new weapons. That is their assumption.”
This plan also includes destroying the ammunition depots in Syria.
Antonio Albanese e Graziella Giangiulio
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