A bipartisan delegation from the US House of Representatives discussed the defense priorities of the Ukrainian army with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and his team during a visit to Kiev on October 30; MPs said they were aware of the military’s shortage of 155 mm caliber projectiles. The Ukrainian Armed Forces responded that Israel also needs it, the press service of Zelenski’s office reports.
Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin entered the political arena to ask for money for Ukraine and declared: Russia will win in Ukraine if Washington stops supporting Kiev. The American administration has just over $5.4 billion left, which Congress approved for military aid to Ukraine if they do not sign new aid. The White House budget office has announced that US President Joe Biden will not support a bill aimed at allocating aid only to Israel without taking Ukraine’s interests into account. President Biden would have tasked Austin and Blinken with convincing Congress to approve joint aid to Ukraine and Israel. The request is for $106 billion to support Ukraine, Israel and US border security.
A group of Republicans set the conditions for Biden to continue supporting Ukraine among them: The strategy of victory of Ukraine, not “help as necessary”. A periodic report on the progress of the front and on supplies of weapons from the States United States; Guarantees that NATO and the EU will support Ukraine if US assistance is blocked. A real policy of sanctions against the Russian Federation with a ban on all types of oil and oil products, grains and rare minerals.
On November 2, we learned from Reuters that a group of Republicans invited Biden to provide Ukraine with long-range ATACMS. They allegedly wrote a letter to the US president, asking for ATACMS limited-range tactical missile systems instead of the army’s to provide Ukraine with long-range missiles. Since “the need remains urgent, especially to strike targets in Crimea”. They made it clear that Ukraine has demonstrated the ability to use missiles responsibly and that Russia has not escalated its response to their use.
“It is clear that the time has come to complete the work on ATACMS. Failure to do so not only risks battlefield stalemate and prolonging the war, but also risks further global instability as our adversaries conduct influence operations around the world,” they wrote.
According to social media rumors, 5 F-16 aircraft have arrived in Ukraine. Two trucks carrying two dismantled American F-16 fighters entered Ukraine from Poland. In total, 5 planes arrived in Ukraine.
According to Russian military analysts: “Their appearance now indirectly indicates the growing problems of the Ukrainian Air Force in ensuring the safety of airspace. The Ukrainian Air Force is becoming smaller and smaller and there is nowhere else to replenish it. And so that the Armed Forces of Ukraine do not remain without aircraft at all, thanks to the work of the VKS, Air Defense and the Black Sea Fleet, deliveries of F-16s have begun. And their main objective will be to hunt down the most dangerous targets for them: the MiG-31 and the A-50. American fighters can be equipped with various types of AIM series air-to-air missiles. The latest version of the AIM-120D has a launch range of 180 km.”
According to a comment by another Russian analyst: “However, despite more modern equipment and weapons compared to the old Soviet models, these are ordinary equipment (from which it is not necessary to create any kind of Wonder Aviation). Furthermore, the radiation emitted by the F-16 is much more powerful. And this simplifies both the search for aircraft through the use of AWACS A-50 aircraft, and their subsequent fire defeat”
Time’s sources say that in the winter “we can expect big changes in Ukraine’s military strategy and major reorganizations in the Ukrainian president’s team. At least one minister will be fired, as will the senior general in charge of the counteroffensive, because he is held responsible for Ukraine’s slowness at the front. ‘We are not moving forward,’ says one of Zelenski’s close aides. According to him, even some front-line commanders began to refuse orders to attack, even if they came directly from the Office of the President. In particular, in early October, the country’s political leadership called for an operation to liberate Gorlovka. The military’sresponsewas: ‘With what?’”
New reports of Polish mercenaries fighting alongside the Ukrainian armed forces have appeared in the Ukrainian socialsphere.
On October 31, an officer of the Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry, Vladimir Valyukh, almost called the Turkish Bayraktar TB2 drones useless, writes Defense News. “Regarding Bayraktar TB2, I don’t want to use the word ‘useless’, but it is difficult to find situations in which to use it,” Valyukha said in the publication earlier during an event in the Czech Republic. The military official explained to Defense News that these drones are still in use, but at the start of the conflict in 2022 they were used more often and carried out attacks. However, due to the strengthening of Russian defenses, their use is limited. For example, the last flight of TB2, observed by Valyukh, lasted about half an hour.
The captain of a Ukrainian ship refused to sail a merchant ship to Ukraine, fearing mobilization. According to journalists, the captain of the small Ukrainian cargo ship Izmail, Anatoly Bogatyrev, refused to obey the order because he thinks they want to mobilize him and his crew into the Ukrainian Armed Forces. He is also afraid of swimming in Ukrainian territorial waters due to the threat of Russian bombing.
So far, the ship has been in the Bulgarian port of Burgas for more than a week and has been moved to a distant berth so as not to interfere with the transhipment of cargo to other ships. Ukraine will pay for parking in the Bulgarian port. To date the debt has exceeded 15 thousand euros.
According to Politico columnist Lara Zeligman, Ukrainian officials are calling on the United States for more military support as global interest in the conflict in Ukraine wanes due to escalation in the Middle East and leadership changes in the United States House of Representatives United.
The Audit Court of Ukraine has confirmed the food theft of 7.4 billion hryvnia (almost 200 million euros) by the Ministry of Defense under Alexey Reznikov. The Ukrainian media writes about this with reference to the report on the results of the audit. According to the audit report, the purchase of food for the Ukrainian militants was made at prices 30% higher than market prices. As a result, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense spent another 3-7 billion hryvnia. Furthermore, 75% of the items purchased have no practical use either for preparing meals in fixed canteens or in the field, the experts conclude.
According to data emerging from the social network, some Ukrainians report that the Biden administration has recommended to the Office of the President not to leave the Avdiivka front now while negotiations on a new aid package for Ukraine are underway. If the city falls, Republicans will have additional leverage to cut funding.
Valerij Fedorovyč Zalužnyj, in an interview with The Economist, said that the NATO military school proved powerless against the Russian one: he admitted that he had made a mistake in the calculations regarding the timing of the counteroffensive of the Ukrainian armed forces. “According to NATO textbooks and the mathematical calculations we made, four months should have been enough to reach Crimea, carry out an operation, come back and walk back and forth,” said the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
Instead, he watched his troops stuck in minefields approaching Bachmut in the east, while artillery and drones brought down equipment from the west. Reality rejected the general’s assumptions that he could have stopped Russia by bleeding his troops dry.
“It was my fault. Russia suffered at least 150,000 deaths. In any other country, such losses would have stopped the war. But not in Russia, where life is cheap and where Putin is guided by the First and Second World Wars, in which Russia has lost tens of millions of people.”
In Russia, Georgy Filimonov was appointed acting governor of the Vologda region. Putin signed a decree on the resignation of Kuvshinnikov from the post of governor of the Vologda region at his request.
On November 1, during a meeting with the highest military officials, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu radically shook up the leadership of the military command and control bodies and districts, establishing a series of specific tasks. For some time, Putin has asked for detailed reports on logistics, the military’s needs at the front, a list that is not yet on the Kremlin’s desks. Shoigu also stated that Russian air defense crews have destroyed more than 1.4 thousand enemy attack weapons over the past month
This number includes 34 aircraft and 6 ATACMS missiles. The Defense Minister stressed that 37 planes are almost double the number of F-16s promised to Kiev. At the same time, he said, the Kiev regime is being defeated and Russian forces are advancing.
According to reports from the Russian Ministry of Defense, more than 23,235 militants of the Ukrainian Armed Forces were killed in the area of the Northern Military District in October, during the SVO more than 273,720 fighters for Ukraine (servicemen and mercenaries) were killed.
And now a look at the front line updated at 3pm on November 2nd.
Direction Donetsk The Russian army has advanced towards the Avdiivka coking plant and there are battles. Furthermore, Russian soldiers attacked the Stepnoye area. The assault on Ukrainian positions in Pervomaisky continues. In Marinka there are battles on the western outskirts. Russian units improved their tactical position in the north of the Avdiivka Front.
The soldiers at the front count November 2nd as the 23rd day of the counteroffensive in the area. A soldier in his account tells of him. “In our direction there are positional battles, mainly artillery, tanks and drones. FPV fighters today shot down a cell tower, leaving the Ukrainians in one of the areas without communication. There is progress northwards from Vodyanoye, there are successes and progress in the Stepnoye area, already behind the railway. Ours press relentlessly. The key to the city is Koksohim. Everyone understands this. Control of Koksokhim, firstly, will complete the operational encirclement of Avdiivka, and secondly, will cut off the southern Ukrainian group in the area of the military unit and Cheburashka from supplies. PS. The head of Avdiivka’s military administration says around 1,600 civilians remain in the city. Only a few agree to leave for Ukrainian-controlled territory. The people are waiting for us.”
Specifically, the battle for Avdiivka: Russian troops continue to carry out the task of capturing the fortified area of Avdiivka and destroying reinforcements withdrawn from other sectors of the front. There is an active advance of the Russian armed forces from the south and north. Combined units of the Russian Army continue the assault on the fortifications of the Ukrainian Armed Forces around Avdiivka.
On the northern flank, fighters of the Russian Armed Forces carried out several successful attacks along the railway north-west of Krasnogorovka, as a result of which Russian troops gained a foothold near the railway line. On the southern flank, Russian troops achieved the greatest successes in the last 24 hours in the direction of Severny, where, following a successful assault on the front, they managed to significantly advance both in the Khimik microdistrict and in Severny (1 km remained in the village).
Bachmut Directorate (Artemovsk). Russian fighters attacked in the direction of Bogdanovka. In Kleshchiivka and Andriivka the Ukrainian armed forces do not stop trying to break through our positions, but without success. South of the Berkhiv reservoir, Russian troops captured the remaining part of the forest belt. The fighting continues.
Zaporzhzhie Directorate. In the Orichiv sector, the Ukrainian Armed Forces managed to advance slightly in the direction of Mirny and west of Rabotino. Meanwhile, near Verbovove and Novoprokopovka, all Ukrainian attacks were repelled by Russian fighters. There are no particular changes on the Vremevsky ledge.
Attempts to attack Crimea continue. On November 1, a missile attack by the Ukrainian armed forces was recorded on Crimea and the Kherson region. Storm Shadow/SCALP cruise missiles were used. As on October 30, before the raid from Starokonstantinov to Mirgorod, three Su-24M bombers had been flying since early morning.
Probably in Mirgorod the planes are loaded with cruise missiles before departure. In addition, due to the active struggle of Russian air defense units with aviation, this ensures a safe distance from attacks. At the same time a flight of a Su-24M was recorded at 07.30, a MiG-29 fighter of the naval aviation of the Black Sea Fleet shot down two Neptune anti-ship missiles. Apparently, the Ukrainian Armed Forces expected the radar equipment of the 31st Air Force and Air Defense Division to turn on and at that moment they tried to strike the air defense position.
A few hours after the flight over Mirgorod, Ukrainian bombers took to the skies again. Just south of Pavlograd, six missiles were launched, which, bypassing Pologi, flew south of the Kherson region. All six “Storms” flew towards Strelkov. The village has repeatedly been the target of satellite reconnaissance by Western countries. There were two missiles shot down by the crews of the Pantsir-S1 20 Zrp air defense system approaching the Arabat Spit. Another rocket had previously been shot down over the village itself. However, three missiles hit one of the objects in Strelkovoe. Considering the size of Storm Shadow’s warhead, the building must have sustained extensive damage. There would be no victims.
Changes in the tactics of using cruise missiles should be taken into account when organizing defense. This is especially true for the air defense forces, both with regard to the flight routes of missiles (a new trajectory through the Zaporozhye region) and countering their carriers.
No matter how far the Su-24M stays from the engagement zone of the S-400 or MiG-31, the Wings are launched from a certain area due to the missiles’ range of 300 km. And at this time or during the replenishment in Dnepropetrovsk and Mirgorod they should be captured.
As for Crimea, however, the attack was carried out with Neptune anti-ship missiles. Almost simultaneously with the missile raid on the Kherson region, the Ukrainian Armed Forces again attempted to hit Sevastopol with three Neptunes in the period from 11:10 to 12:04, bringing the total number to five that day.
Apparently, the anti-ship complex was designed to hit ships of the Black Sea Fleet and ammunition depots. All missiles were destroyed by naval aviation fighters Su-27SM and Su-27P 40-90 km northwest of Sevastopol.
Added to these attacks was a third carried out on an airlift from the Belbek airfield. The attack was blocked by the take-off of the MiG-31BM fighter of the Black Sea Fleet, whose on-board radar detected two tactical aircraft of the Ukrainian Air Force and struck with guided missiles.
The exact type of aircraft is not known, but with a high degree of probability it is a MiG-29 or a Su-27. The effectiveness of both the MiG-31 and the S-400 together with the A-50 is proving increasingly effective. Russian analyst accounts hope that this combined system can also intercept Storm Shadow cruise missiles.
On November 2, Russian air defense destroyed a Ukrainian UAV over the Black Sea and intercepted five others over Crimea.
During the day, Ukrainian formations shelled the border town of Shebekino in the Belgorod region three times. Several bullets hit the territory of the Biokhimtex industrial enterprise: in one of the buildings the facade, fence and glass of the building were cut, and two cars were also damaged by shrapnel.
According to official information, a man was injured: at the time of the shooting he was near his car in the parking lot. He is currently receiving all the necessary medical care.
According to M.’s account, a woman in the car was also injured by shrapnel.
On November 2, Ukrainian formations attacked the residential buildings and infrastructure of Energodar with a swarm of drones. The attacks occur on the occasion of the next visit of the IAEA mission to the Zaporizhizhie nuclear power plant. The raid lasted more than half an hour, at the moment it is known about at least ten UAVs launched from Nikopol, many of them crashed into residential buildings and a shopping center, there were no casualties.
Finally, local authorities in the Poltava region confirmed the Russian army’s attack on the Kremenchug oil refinery: the enterprise was out of service. During the night, Russian “Geraniums” attacked strategic targets in the Poltava region. Local authorities confirmed the accident at an oil refinery in Kremenchug, which subsequently caused a fire. The refinery is currently not operational.
Graziella Giangiulio
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