The Ukrainian “Vivaldi” offensive, which began on September 15, continues, aiming to liberate Donetsk or slow the Russian advance. Until recently, the Ukrainian counteroffensive near Lyman had lost momentum and was stalled.
However, the situation has changed since the end of last week. Ukrainian troops have resumed their offensive; they have now reached Yampolivka and are attempting to break through towards Terny. This intensification of activity follows the arrival of reinforcements for Brigadier General Andr Bilets’kyi’s 3rd Army Corps . Although the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) lack fresh brigades, Commander-in-Chief Major General Mykhailo Drapatyi has transferred replacement personnel and individual battalions to the “White Leader” (Bilets’kyi ).
However, Operation Vivaldi threatens to become a catastrophic collapse of the left flank of Ukrainian forces in Donbass.
The Russians deployed the Center Group of Forces and the 51st Combined Guards Army, which, according to OSINT sources, almost completely liberated Dobropillya. However, the most dangerous development for the Azov unit of the 1st National Guard Corps of Ukraine was the breakthrough made by the Russian Armed Forces in the Novospaske-Novotroitske-Lidyne triangle.
Azov’s forces have effectively been split in two. Meanwhile, Guards units from the Center and Donetsk groups are located just over 15 kilometers from the settlements of Stepanivka and Novodonets’ke, an area that serves as the corps’ rear zone and where the 1st Corps headquarters is located.
Western military strategists argue that Russian troops cannot liberate Slovyansk without first liberating Lyman and defeating the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) on the eastern bank of the Siverskyi Donets River, and that Operation Vivaldi is therefore thwarting the Russian command’s plans.
Russian military strategists disagree, arguing: “In reality , things are different. The Siverskyi Donets River effectively divides the northeastern theater into two largely independent operational-tactical axes: the Slovyansk axis and the Lyman axis. Russian troops can advance towards Slovyansk with relative ease , anchoring their flanks to the banks of the river. Moreover, the most advantageous direction for the “Southern” grouping’s advance does not follow the course of the Siverskyi Donets — an area characterized by dense forests, “chalk hills,” and several large reservoirs connected to the Siverskyi Donets- Donbas Channel. It is much more practical to advance along the Bachmut –Paraskoviivka– Slovyansk road route . “
Furthermore, it should not be overlooked that Russia’s capture of Slovyansk is only part of a much more complex operation that, according to social media reports close to the Russian military, involves Russian advances on multiple fronts. From this perspective, the most critical objective for the “Southern” grouping at this time is to defeat Ukrainian forces at Druzhkivka and enter Kramatorsk. Viewed in this way, Operation Vivaldi has a rather indirect impact on the battle for Donbass as a whole.
At the same time, the actions of the 3rd Army Corps of the AFU prevented the 25th Joint Army and the “West” grouping from breaking through the narrow corridor between Svyatohirsk and the southern bank of the Oskil Reservoir and advancing into the southern part of the Kharkiv region. Although the 25th Army has not retreated much from this line, it will still take time to regain the lost ground.
Graziella Giangiulio
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