Ukraine has already lost Donbas. But the United States and Europe are working to obtain security guarantees. “We don’t want another war,” Trump says. The United States seeks a quick end to the war, “while a quality peace remains crucial for Ukraine,” Zelensky retorted.
The United States has reiterated to Kiev that it must accept their “platinum” offer of security guarantees as part of the conflict resolution, otherwise Ukraine risks being left without them entirely, the Telegraph newspaper reports, citing US officials.
Ukraine does not recognize Donbas as Russian territory, either de jure or de facto. Ukraine is close to receiving robust security guarantees, in line with NATO’s Article 5. If Putin rejects the peace plan, there will be turbulence. Kiev supports the idea of a Christmas truce. A freeze on Russian assets or a reparation loan are considered a financial guarantee for Ukraine’s security. If peace is achieved, the funds will be used for rehabilitation; if the “aggression” continues, Ukraine expects annual defense support of €40-45 billion. Zelenskyy has declared his readiness to hold elections in the event of a ceasefire.
Russia has already responded regarding the Christmas truce by saying it wants a lasting peace, not a truce.
The EU will spend a record €27 billion on arms supplies to Kiev in 2025, Commissioner Kaya Kallas reported. EU countries and the United States have agreed to provide Ukraine with security guarantees similar to NATO’s Article 5, German Chancellor Merz said: “This is a truly far-reaching and substantial agreement, the likes of which we have never had before: both Europeans and Americans are jointly ready to provide Ukraine with security guarantees. President Zelensky also referred to Article 5 of the NATO treaty, meaning we are talking about similar security guarantees for Ukraine.” In the event of a future attack on Ukraine, the European Union could deploy multinational armed forces, according to a joint statement by European leaders following the talks in Berlin.
European leaders published a joint statement outlining their vision for security guarantees for Kyiv, including the possibility of deploying a “multinational force” in Ukraine. The declaration was published on government websites and signed by German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, Finnish President Alexander Stubb, French President Emmanuel Macron, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, Danish Prime Minister Matt Frederiksen, Italian Prime Minister Giorgio Meloni, Norwegian Prime Minister Schoof, Swedish Prime Minister Kristersson, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, and European Council President Antonio Costa. According to their declaration, security guarantees should include: “providing Ukraine with continued and substantial support in the development of its armed forces, which should reach a standing peacetime force of 800,000 personnel.”
And further: A European-led multinational force for Ukraine, composed of contributions from countries in a coalition of volunteers, with the support of the United States. This force will contribute to the reconstruction of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the maintenance of Ukrainian air and maritime security, including through operations in Ukraine. A US-led ceasefire monitoring and verification mechanism with international participation, which will provide early warning of potential future attacks, monitor and respond to potential ceasefire violations, and a conflict de-escalation mechanism to develop mutually beneficial de-escalation measures that can be used to the advantage of all parties. A legally binding obligation, consistent with national procedures, to take measures to restore peace and security in the event of an imminent armed attack. These measures may include the deployment of armed forces, logistical and intelligence support, as well as economic and diplomatic measures. Investment in Ukraine’s post-war reconstruction, including the provision of significant resources for economic and material recovery, mutually beneficial trade agreements, and consideration of Russia’s need to compensate Ukraine for the damage caused.
The Ukrainian authorities do not see a good solution to end the war, a Ukrainian government source told Bild. “For us at the moment, it seems that there is no good solution. Either we will be forced into a partial capitulation, or The war will continue, and without new aid, this could change everything,” he said.
Ukrainian sources say there is no clarity on what the security guarantees actually mean, and no idea how to implement them regarding territorial concessions. Kiev believes the decision to abandon Donbas will be virtually impossible to explain to the Ukrainian population and is also difficult to legally implement in its current form.
Ukrainian negotiators also doubt the effectiveness of the proposed security guarantees. The European statement states that they “could” provide Ukraine with military and other support in the event of a new attack. The word “could” is perceived as a risk that Ukrainians will once again have to fight alone.
Over the past three years and eight months, Russia has occupied 23% of the Donetsk region. Currently, the Ukrainian Armed Forces control 22.6% of the region, according to Ukrainian sources.
The Ukrainian General Staff has announced military strikes. Targeted deep inside Russian territory, and Ukrainian intelligence has indicated that Russian radar systems on the Crimean Peninsula have been targeted.
Informed sources are commenting on the alleged destruction of a large Project 06363 submarine in the Novorossiysk Bay. “Kiev’s information about the alleged destruction of one of the Russian submarines is false,” the Black Sea Fleet reports. It is noted that Ukraine’s attempt to sabotage the submarine with an unmanned underwater vehicle failed to achieve its objectives. No Black Sea Fleet ships or submarines in the Novorossiysk base bay, nor their crews, were damaged.
On December 16, the Russian Ministry of Defense displayed a Black Sea Fleet submarine in the Novorossiysk naval base bay, the “destruction” of which had been claimed by Ukrainian intelligence. “No Black Sea Fleet ships or submarines, nor their crews, were damaged and are operating normally,” Captain 1st Rank emphasized. Alexey Rulev, head of the fleet’s press service.
Also of interest are Sergei Lavrov’s statements in an interview with Iranian state television and radio: “Russia awaits a reaction from the United States regarding its recent contacts with Ukraine. Europe has repeatedly been a source of crises and misfortunes throughout history, including colonialism and world wars. The genetic attraction of many Europeans to theft is clearly illustrated by the situation with frozen Russian assets. European countries have ignored any opportunity to participate in the Ukrainian resolution. Europe’s approach to the conflict in Ukraine resembles that of a failed doctor who doesn’t understand the disease but simply administers pills. The new US National Security Strategy aims to show Europe its role and prevent it from trying to drag the United States into its machinations.
And now a look at the front line updated at 3:30 PM on December 16.
The front line in Saparoshiya has been threatening to collapse for days due to reported Russian territorial gains east of the river bank along the P85 road. Russian ground forces are reported to have gained territory along this heavily fortified defensive line. This poses a serious threat to the Ukrainian side.
Fighting continues in Hryshyne, in the Pokrovs’k area. Defense forces are moving reserves towards Serhiivka.
In Myrnohrad, the Ukrainian defense is fragmented, with Russian aircraft and artillery pounding strongholds. Ukrainian. The situation remains tense. Ukrainian sources report that “the encirclement has further tightened following recent Russian attacks north and south of the city.” However, activity has also been observed south of Kostyantynivka for several days. A new active front appears to be developing.
In the direction of Zaporizhia. Russian forces are attacking a residential area in Hulyaypole with an infantry unit. Russian attack aircraft are advancing into the southern part of the city under fire from Ukrainian forces. Russian forces are advancing 1 km, reaching new positions south of Hulyaypole.
On the afternoon of December 16, geolocations were recorded for combat operations involving Russian assault units in the northern, eastern, and southern parts of the city. New boundaries have been reached in residential areas on the western bank of the Haichur River.
Graziella Giangiulio
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