As Russian formations advance towards the Seversky Donets-Donbass Canal, intense fighting continues on the Western Front and the southern flank of the Bachmut Group of the Russian Armed Forces. According to estimates from most Ukrainian open sources, social and mass media, the balance of power is 3:1 in favor of Russia
The main battles are now taking place in the Khromovo, Bogdanovka and Ivanovskoye area. The central part of Bogdanovka is located in the gray zone. The densest Ukrainian concentration is observed on the opposite outskirts of the settlement, as well as in the south-west, closer to Kalinovo (the canal border). In recent days, after gaining a foothold in the northern part of the village thanks to the successful assault on the Ukrainian resistance, Russian units cut the road from the Grigorovka side (4.5 km to the west), which was previously under fire control of artillery in the high ground area near Dubovo-Vasilievka. Passing through Bogdanovka, it provided communication to Ukrainian units located in the Khromovo-Ivanovskoye section.
The units of the 17th tank, 24, 42 and 93rd mechanized, 77th aircraft and 92nd assault brigade (made up of 10 battalions) are currently concentrated in the area 100, 107, 112, 114, 120, 127th and 241st Land Defense Brigades (consisting of 7 battalions), 10th GUR MOU Special Forces Detachment, 214th Assault Battalion and 58th, 419th, 426th rifle battalions.
From what appears from the social sphere, Ukrainians evaluate their position in the area as “critical”. According to data analyzed by the OSINT units of the social sphere which also collect the conversations of the Ukrainian military, the command of the OTG Soledar and Bachmut has problems with rotation. One post reads: “Ukrainian servicemen who are mobilized (mainly from the territory of the Kharkov region) are sent to the LBS without much preparation, plugging the holes. Local commanders are busy making additions to service and combat documentation, without reflecting on the real picture of the number of assignments and conscientious objectors, the number of which is growing. The most combat-ready units come from volunteer formations, from the Special Operations Forces, from the Special Forces of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the MOU, where the motivated part of the “military forces” is collected”.
The research group Frontelligence Insight, which analyzes the situation in the Northern Military District area using data from American commercial satellites, notes that the Russian command has concentrated large forces in Bachmut. And they came to the conclusion that, as part of the launched winter campaign, the advance of the Russian Armed Forces towards Chasov Yar, along with offensive actions in the Seversk direction will become a key topic. Analyzing space reconnaissance data, Western experts note that the Russians will advance with wide coverage: in the south – from Kleshchiivka, Andriivka and Kurdyumovka; in the north-west – from Bogdanovka and Grigorovka (operation carried out essentially by Wagner Group PMC in May last year).
Furthermore, as emerges from the social sphere, there is an active use of counter-battery and electronic warfare systems by the Ukrainian armed forces in this area to minimize the effectiveness of Russian attacks. At the same time, the Russians have an advantage in terms of ammunition and artillery, which suggests a possible tactical success of the Russian armed forces.
At the moment, it seems that the absolute advantage has become a partial gap in the logistics of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Graziella Giangiulio
