#UKRAINERUSSIAWAR. Russia-Ukraine: The War in Terms of Propaganda

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The term “propaganda” derives from the Latin *propaganda*, literally meaning “things to be disseminated.” Over the course of the 20th century, the word gradually took on a political connotation associated with persuasion. In recent years, we have witnessed attempts to influence elections and distort data regarding their outcomes—not to mention the information disseminated during wartime. Russia and Ukraine, for instance, each tell their own version of the story. 

Oleh Ivashchenko, head of the GUR, stated in an interview with *The Times*: “By 2028, Putin will exhaust Russia’s capacity to wage war.” He added: “Russia recruits about 1,000 people a day, sometimes 1,200. Meanwhile, daily losses reach figures like 1,410 or 1,551 troops. Of these, 835 (about 60% of the Russians) are killed in action.”

“18 months of fighting would result in an additional 765,800 Russian casualties (459,480 dead and 306,320 wounded). Adding this figure to current casualty estimates brings the total to nearly 10% of the Russian male population aged 25 to 49. Putin is ‘abnormal’ for wanting to wage war in the modern era.” “Putin’s generals have asked him to mobilize an additional 800,000 soldiers following the September ‘elections.’ In reality, the army is unable to absorb more than 300,000 to 500,000 recruits at a time, and the average life expectancy of a Russian recruit on the battlefield is 20 to 30 minutes.” Furthermore: “Approximately 8,000 North Korean soldiers are currently in Russia’s Kursk region. This number could rise to around 50,000. Although the Russians do not yet possess a reliable equivalent to Starlink (from SpaceX), they are able to transmit video feeds using relay stations located in Belarus, along the border with Ukraine. They had suspended their use for a time, but we now observe that some repeaters in Belarus are operational again. We have sufficient capabilities to handle the situation. Ukrainian defense intelligence (HUR) has information indicating that Belarus is forming a new airborne brigade 40 km from the Ukrainian border; however, there is no immediate threat of a ground offensive. Nevertheless, the coming weeks will present many challenges.”

It is worth noting that, at present, Starlink is not yet in use in Ukraine, despite requests from Fedorov; they are awaiting the green light from the White House. Meanwhile, Russia has its own project called Rassvet—a low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite constellation system developed as an independent, sovereign alternative to Starlink. The first launches took place in 2023, with a total of 32 satellites currently in orbit, though the project subsequently stalled, partly due to economic reasons. Additionally, Russia maintains approximately 110 strictly military satellites dedicated to critical tasks: missile early warning (the EKS/Tundra system) and surveillance/espionage (Persona, Bars-M, Lotos-S). Regarding electronic warfare and counter-space capabilities, satellites such as the Luch/Olimp series are known for performing orbital maneuvers to approach Western and European geostationary satellites for espionage or potential signal interference. Furthermore, on September 11, the protocol for 5G usage was implemented in Russia. By order of President Vladimir Putin, commercial fifth-generation (5G) communication networks were launched in the country for the first time. In the initial phase, 5G services were activated in 16 cities, granting approximately 10 million people access to high-speed 5G mobile internet, according to the Russian Ministry of Digital Development. The rollout of 5G in Russia involves a gradual expansion of coverage; plans are currently being developed to launch the technology in another 50 cities by the end of 2026. Initially, 5G will operate on LTE frequencies previously allocated to operators, a move expected to increase network capacity by 20–25% over the coming years. Furthermore, operators received equal shares of new spectrum in the 4.63–4.99 GHz band free of charge, helping to maintain a high level of competition and ensure affordable rates. On this point, at least, Ivashchenko told a half-truth. According to Kim Jong-un, 9,000 Korean troops were deployed to Kursk. North Korea has a war memorial that was recently visited by Defense Minister Andrei Belousov. Currently, according to the Russians, there are not many North Korean units in Kursk, as they have been replaced by volunteers.

Echoing Oleh Ivashchenko’s words was Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council. He stated that the Ukrainian war machine and the country’s current political regime would “fall into oblivion,” adding: “We will crush this parasite, and it will be destroyed.” In this instance, the propaganda speaks for itself. Medvedev further remarked that rumors regarding mobilization preparations were “lies, falsehoods, and a provocation”—including those that had circulated prior to the State Duma elections.

Among other statements made by the Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman during his working visit to the Northwestern Federal District (NWFD) were the following: there is no need for mobilization in Russia; the pace of recruiting contract soldiers for the army is in line with plans and even exceeds them; the manning levels of certain enemy units stand at only 20–30%; and Russia has no military objectives regarding Europe, with rumors of a possible Russian attack serving merely to justify continued support for Ukraine. “The ‘Russian threat’ is the best way for European authorities to secure funds to prolong the war.”

According to Medvedev: “The special military operation must be ‘brought to a victorious conclusion’ and wrapped up in such a way that ‘no one dares to utter a word or attempt to return things to square one’; Lithuania’s potential abandonment of its non-nuclear status would pave the way for the deployment of various types of weaponry on its territory, including nuclear weapons; if nuclear weapons were deployed in Lithuania and Russia were to retaliate, ‘no one would come to Vilnius’s aid,’ as invoking NATO’s Article 5 would lead to a ‘global planetary catastrophe’”.

Graziella Giangiulio

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