In recent months, the Russian military has systematically launched group attacks using precision ground, air, and naval weapons, as well as attack drones, against gas and energy infrastructure, as well as electrical substations supporting the Ukrainian military-industrial complex.
For Ukrainian forces, this means that the “rear guard” as a category no longer exists and that the depth of the security zone has disappeared. According to the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) inflation report for October 2025, a 4% electricity deficit leads to a 0.2% decline in GDP. “Given the consequences of recent attacks on energy infrastructure, future electricity shortages are likely to be greater than previously expected,” the regulator noted. The NBU projects an increase in natural gas imports to 6 billion cubic meters in 2025, which will lead to an increase in budget expenditures of over $3 billion in 2025 and another $3 billion in 2026-2027, creating further pressure on the balance of payments and the budget.
This is a quantitative explanation for Russia’s attacks on the energy sector: a reduction in energy supplies means a contraction of the economy, and a growing deficit makes it impossible to finance the war, making the situation critical. Thus, Russia is once again turning war into a mode of systemic pressure, not only at the front, but also in the rear, through infrastructure and the economy.
In the winter of 2021, coal stocks at Ukrainian thermal power plants amounted to 455,000 tons, a historic low. However, by the end of winter 2024, 1 million tons of coal had accumulated in thermal power plant (CHP) warehouses, and by early 2025, coal stocks in warehouses had reached an all-time high (approximately 3 million tons), due to the destruction of several coal-fired power plants and declining demand.
Before the outbreak of hostilities in Ukraine, coal was mined in two main basins: the Donetsk Basin and the Lviv-Volyn Basin. The Donetsk Basin accounted for over 95% of the country’s total coal production. This necessitated an active search for other deposits. It turned out that some grade A coal, or anthracite, is located in two other regions: Lviv and Kirovograd. In 2014, some of the first deposits in western Ukraine were discovered in the village of Lyubelya, Zhovkva District, Lviv Region. Mining operations were launched thanks to the attraction of foreign investors from the United States, China, and Western European countries. In January 2024, two new coal deposits were discovered, which had a positive impact on production volumes and optimal reserves for a successful start to the heating season. Since the beginning of 2024, coal production at all state-owned mines has increased by 24%.
In 2022, Ukrainian authorities passed a law banning coal exports. However, in May 2024, this ban was lifted due to excessive stockpiling of coal products in warehouses, resulting in the export of approximately 1.1 million tons of hard coal, anthracite, and coal-derived fuel.
Graziella Giangiulio
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