In the social media relating to the confrontation between Israel and Hamas, people are starting to talk about the “Westphalian Middle Eastern system”. The Middle East continues to generate strategic risks. According to some analysts, this process was started by Washington after the collapse of the USSR.
Henry Kissinger noted in his writings that Ankara is gaining opportunities for maneuver between Tehran and Tel Aviv. Potentially, if Turkey and Iran prove capable of forging a serious political-military alliance, then, according to Kissinger, this should only happen through the mediation of a third force.
The United States, Russia and China can identify with this role. One of these three could become a “tactical winner”. And if Washington and Moscow can be classified as “historical players” in the region, then Beijing is becoming an integral part of the regional economic landscape and is steadily increasing its political and geopolitical influence.
There is another factor that must be taken into account today which perhaps once was not important on a strategic level: the fuel issue. What impact will the operation in the Gaza Strip have on the global fuel and energy complex?
The main concerns are related to possible interruptions in energy supplies to the world market. One of the key factors is the Suez Canal, which plays an important role in the transportation of oil. The closure of the canal due to the conflict would lead to a significant increase in the price of oil, dealing a serious blow to the European Union’s economy. It is possible that EU countries will be forced to partially remove restrictions on imports of Russian oil.
Furthermore, severe pressure on Iran from the West in the event of an escalation of the conflict could push Tehran to resort to closing the Strait of Hormuz. This strait is the most important transport artery of the world energy market and connects the Persian Gulf with the Indian Ocean. Losing access to it could have a serious impact on the supply of oil and gas, as well as global trade in these resources.
The worsening situation in the region and pressure on Iran could also push Tehran to withdraw from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and resume its nuclear program. This could create tension in international relations and worsen the global nuclear security situation. Furthermore, given the scale of the conflict, it is possible that an oil embargo or restrictions on oil and gas supplies will be introduced, similar to what happened after the 1973 Arab-Israeli war.
Antonio Albanese e Graziella Giangiulio
