The description by British General Richard Shirreff, former NATO Deputy Chief of Staff, of Russia’s imminent invasion of Estonia and the war with NATO seems to have been written by the late Tom Clancy, and perhaps it is.
For fans of the genre, the novel by Tom Clancy that may have inspired the British general’s report is Command Authority, published in 2013. This magnificent work is part of the series dedicated to the character of Jack Ryan, whose screen counterpart Harrison Ford makes his debut in the wonderful The Hunt for Red October, the film adaptation of which stars Marco Ramius, played by Sean Connery.
Rereading the book, much of its material appears to have inspired General Shirreff’s report and seems to have inspired his fears, later reported in a long article for the British newspaper Daily Mail. In the report, Shirreff explains and imagines how Russia might attack NATO in the near future, detailing its actions and timing in a realistic scenario that closely resembles the one described in the American novel.
In his speech, the British general goes so far as to state that the West could “lose World War III” in just five days, with the world order completely changing, strongly resembling another uchronic novel, The Third Empire: Russia As It Should Be, by Mikhail Yuryev. In short, a nice mix that is scheduled to begin on November 3rd.
According to Shirreff, Russia could launch an attack on Beijing’s orders—the first inconsistency—as soon as China decides to seize Taiwan, “to distract the West,” the second inconsistency. Putin will certainly not appreciate this subordinate role, the British general observes. But given that “the Tsar may soon need significant financial and military resources to avoid being overthrown at home after three and a half years of war in Ukraine,” “he could therefore decide to play China’s game and thus expose all of Europe’s weaknesses.”
“The Russian president is a former KGB officer who uses phrases like ‘The fall of the Soviet Union was one of the greatest tragedies of the last century.'” It sounds just like Vladimir Putin, but in reality, it’s a review of Clancy’s 2014 book. And who was the Russian president at the time? Vladimir Putin, a former KGB officer.
“Through historical facts and situations that have occurred in and around the Russian Federation in recent years, Command Authority paints a bleak picture for Estonia. The small Nordic country is being invaded by Russian forces, in retaliation for “terrorist acts” against its eastern neighbor, and despite being a NATO member, the alliance does not appear to have intervened to its defense. Clancy’s description of the brief war, which includes a map of the southeastern Estonian city of Põlva, titled “The Battle of Põlva,” is chilling, especially for those with a connection to the country, especially because the action is so incredibly realistic that one could literally imagine it all happening,” the review continues.
“Another aspect, however, that makes it all too real is the fact that Tom Clancy is revered as a kind of prophet. The author somehow predicted the terrorist attacks of 9/11, even though in A Debt of Honor it was a Japanese pilot who crashed his plane into the United States Congress. In a sense, he also predicted the Russo-Georgian War and the capture of Osama bin Laden.”
“Fortunately for Estonia, the US president in Command Authority is not a communist-leaning peacemaker as is the case in the real world. President Jack Ryan (…) sends troops to help the Estonians defend their country. And furthermore, when the action moves south to Ukraine, he ensures that the Americans do their utmost to help the country—the very birthplace of the Russian nation—at least have a fighting chance.” The 2014 Estonian review continues, which appears to describe the British general’s article.
Shirreff suggests that the Russian attack on NATO will begin on November 3, 2025, at 2:00 PM Lithuanian time. Of course, there are no concrete indications that such a grim scenario could materialize on that exact date. But the British general presumably chooses this option to illustrate the possible dynamics and timelines after the Russian attack begins.
Shirreff then describes this scenario. The Lithuanian capital, Vilnius, and the rest of the country experience widespread power outages, which soon spread to Estonia and Latvia due to a virus on Lithuanian power lines. “Banks, offices, and hospitals are closed. Panic is rapidly growing in the Baltic states: Russian agents and supporters from Belarus are causing riots, thefts, and looting, forcing the authorities to impose a curfew,” writes the General. Many of the twists in Clancy’s novel will still keep you glued to the pages today due to their plausibility, which we find in the scenario painted by the British general.
But let’s move on to the Daily Mail article. At this point, according to Shirreff, “the power outages are also spreading to the United Kingdom, France, and Germany.” Why on what basis? What is the actual connection of the power grids between the Baltics, Germany, France, and the United Kingdom? And what about the ban on Russian cyber attacks, given that NATO’s cyber center is in Estonia? It’s not certain.
Western leaders are calling for calm. But at 7 a.m. the next day, November 4th, with Europe a lame duck, Putin announces that Russian troops in the Kaliningrad enclave have been placed on maximum alert, But in reality, they have been for some time, amassing soldiers and military equipment on the border with Lithuania, something that in reality already exists on both sides of the border. European authorities rushed to Moscow, to no avail.
After the Russian enclave opened fire on Lithuania, which responded by arresting pro-Russian militants, Putin decided to take control of the Suwalki crossing, the only border strip, about 100 kilometers, between Lithuania and Poland, connecting Kaliningrad to Belarus, and Russian planes took control of the skies above the area.
No NATO aircraft took to the skies, according to the general, no NATO intervention toward Kaliningrad: a Russian enclave in full NATO and EU territory.
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte invoked NATO Article 5. Putin continued his attack on Lithuania on November 5, faced with the paralysis of the United States, which has men and equipment in Lithuania and which US President Donald Trump promised he would not abandon. Meanwhile, Lithuania is under siege, but under the Russian control, how? The Suwalki crossing is becoming increasingly difficult for the Allies to defend.
A weighty scenario, but all it takes is a map and a good game of Risk to see that this scenario is very strange, as is the inaction of other Allied actors, especially given NATO’s proclaimed Baltic naval superiority, as stated months ago by Northern European countries themselves.
How does it end? Well, Shirreff’s dystopian story ends here. In Command Authority, in fact, this is where Jack Ryan and the US and NATO troops come into play.
According to Shirreff, the world order has been upended in just five days: China has obtained Taiwan, Putin is occupying and claiming the Baltics, despite resistance and the presence of Allied troops, and Ukraine, without saying how, and “NATO has effectively collapsed.” Yet Shirreff, who was deputy SACEUR, or deputy Allied commander, should know how certain scenarios unfold.
For those who want to find out how the story unfolds, I recommend rereading Tom Clancy’s novel, which is much more gripping than the General’s article and has a much more realistic setting, despite the fact that more than ten years have passed since its release.
Antonio Albanese
Follow our updates on Geopolitical Gleanings - Spigolature geopolitiche: https://t.me/agc_NW and on our blog The Gleanings of AGCNEWS - Le Spigolature di AGCNEWS: https://spigolatureagcnews.blogspot.com/
