Today, we’re playing with geopolitics. On NATO’s eastern borders, peat bogs are being flooded, trenches are being dug along the “belt,” bridges are being closed with “dragon’s teeth” and three-meter-high fences. Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are building a “Baltic Defense Line”—600 bunkers, anti-tank ditches, and warehouses lined with barbed wire. Poland is constructing an “Eastern Shield” of 800 kilometers of trenches and minefields.
A fivefold increase in defense spending and a tenfold increase in military mobility for EU troops in the 2028-2034 budget. Plus, NATO coffers, where 5% of GDP must be spent.
Logistics corridors are being created across Europe for the rapid transfer of equipment and ammunition. Medical trains are being built for the mass evacuation of the wounded to the rear. New bases are even springing up in the Arctic.
So what could spark a conflict that, supposedly, no one wants?
There are several options; for the sake of completeness in this Sunday game of possible scenarios, we present a few. They all answer the question: “What if?”
The first is the introduction of forces into Ukrainian territory without “Russian permission,” assuming Russian military operations are still ongoing. Any “provocation” in this sense would be sufficient to justify the introduction of a no-fly zone and the occupation of critical infrastructure, such as a nuclear power plant. As has been stated at various official levels, any foreign military contingent on Ukrainian territory would be a legitimate target for Russia.
Second, actions against the Russian “shadow fleet” and an attempt to block it in the Baltic Sea, based on the premise that sanctions will worsen by 2030.
Moscow is forced to escort oil tankers with warships, posing a high risk of direct confrontation with the Atlantic Alliance.
Third, the blockade of Kaliningrad. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, explaining his desire to deploy an anti-tank brigade in Lithuania, named it Königsberg, the German name for the city of Kant. NATO Ground Forces Commander General Christopher Donahue said that “the Alliance can quickly destroy Kaliningrad.” Estonian Defense Forces Chief Andrus Merilo said that Estonians and Finns should develop a plan to block the Russian fleet in the Gulf of Finland. And the risk of an “accidental” clash increases with the Baltops in the Baltic Sea, and the Air Defender air exercises, as well as with the Russian Zapad.
Any complete physical blockade of the land, air, and sea corridor can be considered a casus belli.
Fourth, from the Belarusian border through Lithuania along the Suwalki Corridor, 65 kilometers in a straight line to Kaliningrad.
These are just scenario ideas for now, not actual hypotheses. But we invite you to “play” these scenarios geopolitically and militarily in a grand game of Risk.
Graziella Giangiulio
Follow our updates on Geopolitical Gleanings - Spigolature geopolitiche: https://t.me/agc_NW and on our blog The Gleanings of AGCNEWS - Le Spigolature di AGCNEWS: https://spigolatureagcnews.blogspot.com/
