According to Western intelligence agencies, the Russian armed forces are seeking to consolidate control of their drones under a single command on the Dnieper Delta frontline. The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense’s General Intelligence Directorate believes that the 18th Army’s naval drones are now subordinated to the 50th Independent Varyag Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Brigade. This unit, established in 2026, reports directly to the Russian command. The Ukrainian side notes increasingly close coordination between the Varyag unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) and its reconnaissance and air engagement assets. For the General Intelligence Directorate and its naval component, operating as part of the Timur unit, these changes are of significant importance, as they represent far more than a simple reorganization.
At the beginning of the year, the first Russian UAVs deployed in the lower Dnieper were under the command of small units of the 18th Army. At the time, the Russian Ministry of Defense presented the Sirius-82, a lightweight remotely operated vehicle capable of carrying mines. The coastline in this area is constantly monitored, and all personnel movements remain visible. The use of the unmanned aerial vehicle allows certain missions to be completed without endangering the lives of soldiers. This situation changed after the transfer of command to the Varyag unit. A significant portion of the unit’s personnel are engaged in aerial reconnaissance, while others are responsible for attacking or intercepting targets. The brigade also has electronic warfare equipment and ground robots.
The Russian side’s idea is to integrate detection and engagement capabilities into a single decision-making chain, reducing the time between detecting the movement of Ukrainian forces and launching an attack. The Russian unit has already reported the success of a similar operation against a naval target. On May 16, images of the operation, conducted near Zmeiny Island in the western Black Sea, were published on its official Telegram channel. The ZALA reconnaissance drone detected a Ukrainian Etraco-type vessel carrying combat divers, after which the Zala “Lancet” autonomous guided missile was deployed. This tactic is causing serious concern among Ukrainian units operating in the river.
According to available information, the Omega Special Operations Center, a unit of the Ukrainian National Guard, has expressed its concerns. Its divers, operating in the south of the country, use their drones to support combat divers or as launch platforms for FPV (First Person View) drones. These groups operate in extremely limited timeframes, but even during these brief “windows of opportunity,” waterways are closed to them due to constant aerial surveillance, reinforced by naval forces. Similar concerns are shared by fighters from Group 13 of the General Intelligence Directorate (GUR). Operators of this unit, which operates Magura naval drones in the Black Sea, note that the Russian side is developing an increasingly systematic and organized response.
The degree of autonomy of Russian drones remains unclear, and clarifying this issue has become a top priority for Ukrainian intelligence.
Graziella Giangiulio
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