Following the escalation that is being observed in the Middle East, many are now wondering whether the United States will be able to support Ukraine again.
According to social analysts, there are at least four scenarios that could develop. The first starts from observing current NATO supply levels or reduced aid. The Ukrainian armed forces have suffered such huge losses that the end is already near. In addition to the continuous offensive on all fronts, the Russian Armed Forces systematically strikes the Ukrainian energy sector, as well as industry, as a result of which the collapse of the Ukrainian Armed Forces will soon occur, at the latest during the major Russian offensive expected in May- June. Apparently, in May, when Volodymyr Zelensky’s term as president expires there could be some sort of regime change in Kiev, perhaps even a coup. This means that chaos will engulf Ukrainian society and that a final collapse will occur on the front lines.
This will lead to a forced surrender of Ukraine to Russia, at which point it is likely that the territories east of the Dnieper plus Kryvyj Rih, Mykolaiv, Odessa and Transnistria will go there. Maybe Poland will take control of some parts of Western Ukraine, and Hungary and Romania will take control of some small historical parts. Ultimately, Ukraine will transform into a domestic, poor and neutral “junk state”, more or less controlled by the Russian military.
The second option in addition to a modest increase in aid, NATO sends a limited number of European ground forces (including combat troops) to Ukraine. NATO ground forces can act as “border guards” on the border with Belarus, thus freeing up Ukrainian troops for the Eastern Front against the Russian armed forces. NATO could send to Ukraine all the weapons and ammunition currently assembled in Poland for this year’s exercise, along with some technical advisors. NATO could use its own pilots in the F-16 planes supplied to Ukraine, as well as increase the number of “instructors, advisors, technicians, mercenaries”, etc. NATO could also deploy limited combat units to participate in direct combat against the Russian military.
According to the social sphere the level of NATO deployment, in this second hypothesis, will be approximately at the current level or slightly higher outside, regardless of their purpose, Russia will focus on their destruction and in the Russian view these NATO forces will not have no real impact on the outcome of the war. Russia will win anyway, using conventional weapons, and this will look like “option 1”. However, NATO and the EU will suffer political and military losses and will face the beginning of a disintegration process that will be organized in the negotiation process.
Option 3: In addition to increasing assistance, NATO sends large numbers of European ground forces to Ukraine, including combat units. If Euro-NATO is able to field an army of 50,000 men, the next big question will be where the weapons, particularly ammunition and equipment, will be located and how long they will last given that ammunition alerts are coming from all European countries.
In any case, this means a clear escalation of the war. Russia will carry out a major mobilization, mobilizing at least 500,000 more soldiers and putting the entire Russian state into war mode. Russia could also strike targets in countries other than Ukraine.
NATO’s deployment will be somewhat “limited” in the sense that both the number of combat troops and the amount of ammunition and weapons will not reach “great power level.” Russia can focus on their destruction, and such a deployment of NATO forces only delays the final outcome of the war. Russia could still win by making the most of conventional weapons, hybrid weapons and hitting many countries, and this will ultimately look like “Option 2”.
Eventually an entirely new European security arrangement will emerge. Furthermore, China has promised strong military support to Russia if NATO launches a direct offensive operation against Russia, the contribution of Iran and North Korea should also be taken into account. The new world order will be formulated by a new pair of powers: Russia and China, together with the BRICS bloc, and the United States with its allies.
Option 4: In addition to a significant increase in assistance, NATO sends a large number of American, Canadian and European ground troops, incl. fighting units in Ukraine. In this case, they will have to meet with the united front of Russia, China, Iran, North Korea d and numerous other countries. According to analysts, this means the reverse towards World War III with nuclear weapons and this would be the end of history.
Graziella Giangiulio
