There are revolutions and revolutions and Syria is the emblematic example of these differences. If in 2011 it was the citizens who rose up, also supported from abroad, to ask for new elections and an end to corruption, in November – December 2024 the revolution takes the form of yet another proxy war that moves the battle to Syria but the interests are elsewhere. And no one in Syria was asking for a new revolution, since there had not yet been the opportunity to forget the pain caused by the first one.
Bashar al Assad in great difficulty initially took refuge in Moscow but was cordially accompanied to Damascus together with the new Russian military leaders for Syria who are now led by General Aleksandr Yuryevich Chaikov, the same one who led the liberation of Aleppo from ISIS in 2017, DAESH betrayed at the time by the leader of HTS Mohammed al Jawlani. Incidentally AQMI, al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb invited its men to enlist with HTS.
The Syrian revolutionary cycle can be cynically summarized as follows: 2011, The Syrian revolution begins and the invasion with infiltration of Daesh in Syria; Assad asks for help from Hezbollah-Iran, and from Russia and refuses that of Erdogan; Hezbollah enters Syria with Iranian militias and the Russians bomb from above, the Syrian revolution is blocked, even the coalition bombs but ISIS sometimes mistakenly attacks Iranian militias. Erdogan decides to take advantage and attack and take the Syrian Kurdish area bordering Turkey.
And this expansion of alliances: Hezbollah – Iran; regular army SAA – Syria; IV division of Maher al Assad – Russia, means that at the same time as Hezbollah’s entry into Syria there are important infiltrations of “men of Israel” at the top of Hezbollah. We arrive in 2023, it breaks out on October 7, the Axis of resistance sees under the same roof Hamas and its 48 militias, Hezbollah and its Iraqi, Afghan and Pakistani militias; AnsarAllah against Tel Aviv and allies. Israel decapitates Hamas and then Hezbollah in 14 months; ceasefire agreements are signed in Lebanon based on resolution 1701 and announced on television by Israel and the United States and at dawn the next day the Syrian fronts reopen.
Let us remember that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in his ceasefire announcement had threatened Assad: “you are playing with fire”. And the fire has not stopped being heard in Idlib, Aleppo and Hama. The fronts of Daraa have also been rekindled and now also Damascus and the Kurdish area. Homs is preparing for the worst. But compared to the 2011 revolution the scenario is now different and so are the interests. There are at least four operations underway in Syria at the moment: HTS and allies, including al Qaeda with the operation “prevent the aggressor” started west of Aleppo to conquer the city, and the other HTS axis is towards Idlib in the areas bordering their control; from here towards the north of Hama and as we write the men of the HTS alliance have entered the north of the city, and have surrounded the city from the east; SNA – read Turkey, with the operation “Freedom Dawn” is hitting the Kurds in al Bab, north of Aleppo and east of Aleppo, but they deny being allies with HTS according to Hakan Fidan, Turkish foreign minister; they are also hitting towards Manbij; the Druze are preparing to attack al Suwayda and are waiting for HTS successes to start the battle in the city, local factions in Daraa are waiting for HTS successes to start the battle and in the meantime they have disintegrated Assad’s checkpoints, thus intensifying their activities already present on the territory. The Assad government for now still in a very confused way has started the counteroffensive operation “the green attack” with Russian, Iranian and Iraqi militias linked to Hezbollah support.
Finally, we cannot ignore the Kurdish operation, which began at 05:30 on December 3 in the eastern area of Deir Ez Zor with US support against Assad and the Iranian militias with the aim of conquering the Khasham pocket. On December 4, the offensive tried twice did not lead to the desired success. And this despite the Coalition attack against the Iraqi militias arriving in Syria and against the seven villages of the Khasham pocket, aimed precisely at giving the Kurds the opportunity to infiltrate and, of course, the US also said they are not allies with HTS.
Israel has never denied in the past that it financed al Qaeda in Syria and HTS in an anti-Iran function. Not only a few weeks ago in Syria in the Idlib area to train HTS in the use of drones, Ukrainian military advisors arrived and, according to the Russians, English ones. It can therefore be said that the new Syrian revolution has nothing to do with the first, it is instead born from the desire to weaken Iran on the Israeli side to prevent the construction of the road from Tehran to Beirut which according to Israel is actually a route of weapons and illicit activities and on the other, by Western will, to tire Russia and since in this case Iran and Russia are allies even their enemies can be said to have, if nothing else, a tacit alliance.
And if anyone still has doubts about Ukraine’s participation in this conflict in an anti-Russian function, let’s say a few words about Ukraine and HTS, a group that for the record is already slaughtering civilians in Aleppo. Online, the Syrian opposition UAV operators have spoken about cooperation with Ukraine. Abu Bakr, the leader of the Syrian opposition drone group, has turned to Ukrainian military intelligence for advice. The Ukrainians have provided files for 3D printing of key components such as bomb carriers, tails and warheads. This has enabled the opposition to independently produce, assemble and adapt their drones.
“They taught us the mechanics of drones, bomb carriers and 3D printing.”
Another drone operator, Abu Mazen, confirmed the important role of Ukrainian training in improving drone signal transmission and guidance systems. They have increased the drones’ range and operational efficiency by solving energy and signaling problems. Workshops have been created for larger fixed-wing drones and for the use of 3D printers for precision parts. In mid-November, Syrian opposition drone groups declared that they were fully ready. Abu Mazen confidently stated: “Everything is ready,” indicating operational maturity and independence. However, both Abu Bakr and Abu Mazen (noms de guerre) explained that Ukrainian support was limited to training and guidance, without direct participation in field operations.
Meanwhile, the number of displaced people in northeast Syria has exceeded 100,000. The Iranian consulate in Aleppo was also attacked. Tehran said it was ready to send forces to Syria if Damascus officially requested it, according to the Iranian Foreign Ministry.
On December 7 and 8, there will be meetings in Doha for Syria, first those under the Astana agreements and then an emergency meeting called by the Arab League. Putin and Erdogan stressed the fundamental importance of close coordination between Russia, Turkey and Iran to normalize the situation in Syria, the Kremlin reported. The leaders also discussed the development of cooperation, focusing on trade, economic and energy components.
Turkey’s UN Representative Nassir Al-Nasser said at the Security Council meeting on Syria: “There is a real danger of further divisions in Syria. The events in Syria will undermine regional stability. The solution in Syria is about a national consensus that will end the civil war. A political process in Syria with international support is essential. We tried to start a dialogue with Damascus, but we failed. We have the right to take all measures to protect our national security.”
Iran responded to Nassir Al-Nasser through Ali Akbar, advisor to the Supreme Leader of Iran: “We did not expect Turkey to fall into the trap set by the United States and Israel. Committing such acts in Syria in the name of the Turkish people is surprising. We will continue to support Syria.” The Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces, Major General Mohammad Bagheri added: “The attack of the Takfiri groups in Syria is the first step of a dangerous scenario in the region. The coincidence of the aggression against Syria with the fragile ceasefire in Lebanon indicates an American-Zionist conspiracy to weaken Syria, its allies and the Axis of Resistance. We call on the military leaders of Russia, Iraq and Syria to take measures to prevent support for terrorism.”
The Israeli daily Haaretz wrote on December 4: “If sensitive weapons are captured in Syria, Israel may take preventive measures.” Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi will travel to Iraq on Friday to hold talks on developments in Syria.
And now a look at the front line updated at 16:00.
On the evening of December 3, HTS pushes a little further into Hama governorate, reaching the gates of the city from the northeast. HTS has also further consolidated its presence in northwest Hama and southeast Idlib/southwest Aleppo. Meanwhile, the SNA (Turkey) has redeployed from Tall Rifaat to the Manbij front: a military operation is planned while TSK and SNA artillery intensifies shelling in the area, up to now ground fighting is at a standstill as the Turks bomb from the air. On December 4, on the eighth day of fighting, it appears that the Syrian Army has consolidated and stabilized its defense lines in northern Hama, halting the militants’ advance on this axis.
Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and militants from the so-called Fatah al-Mubin operations room have concentrated their attacks on the Jabal Zayn al-Abidin front. Currently, the most intense clashes are taking place in Maar Shahur and around Kafraa. Reports that the militants have full control of Maar Shahur are inaccurate at the moment. Given the superiority of the Syrian Army from Jabal Kafraa to the surrounding areas, the village of Kafraa and its surroundings are not under the control of the militants and, at worst, are abandoned by both sides. Overall, as long as the important heights of Zayn al-Abidin and Kafraa remain under the control of the Syrian army, the militants will not be able to advance directly towards the city of Hama or capture Qomhanah.
Fighting continues on other fronts, including the Khattab front and north of Mahrada in the areas of Tal Malah and al-Jalmah. A brief overview of the conflict lines in northern Hama shows that the areas under the control of the parties have returned to a situation similar to the lines of 2016 and 2017.
Syrian sources say that the number of militants killed this week exceeds 1,600 among Jabhat al-Nusra and other organizations. The Syrian army is advancing on several fronts, cutting the militants’ supply lines and securing the areas from which they have retreated.
Clashes occurred along the eastern Euphrates River near the Khasham salient between pro-SAA and SDF (Kurdish) militias with US air and artillery support for the latter. The two Kurdish offensives failed despite US support. SDF militants gathered in the Al-Ma’amal area north of Deir ez-Zor after the Syrian Army thwarted their attack on their positions in the seven villages. The offensive is at a standstill for now.
The recent offensive in Syria as the three operations HTS, SNA (Turkey) SDF (Kurdish) are unfolding has been strategically planned, with the aim of significantly changing the dynamics of control in the critical regions of the country. The attack is part of a multi-stage strategy: securing Aleppo: the initial objective was likely to capture Aleppo, Syria’s largest city and a vital economic hub; Advancing towards Hama: After Aleppo, the plan was to move south towards Hama, a key point for controlling central Syria.
Targeting Homs and Al-Qusayr: The strategy likely includes advancing further south towards Homs and then Al-Qusayr, a strategically critical area near the Lebanese border. The Al-Qusayr region is of strategic importance due to its role as a stronghold for Hezbollah in Syria. Securing this area for attackers would mean: Cutting off critical supply routes for Hezbollah. Reducing their influence and operational capacity in the region. Creating a route to Lebanon, particularly the Hermel area, which could then become a new focal point for military activity against Hezbollah. Social media sources report that the SAA is preparing to defend the city, turning schools into barracks. Raising military salaries.
If successful, this offensive could: Shift the balance of power in the ongoing conflict. Weaken Hezbollah’s presence and influence both in Syria and across the Lebanese border. Pave the way for further strategic gains in central and western Syria.
Graziella Giangiulio, Maria Elisabetta Papa, Cristina Uccello
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