Fourth day of conflict between the United States and Israel against Iran. The American operation is called Epic Fury, the Israeli one, Roaring Lion, and the Iranian one is called True Promise 4. But it’s the same war.
There have been no respite, only damage estimates. After the first wave of attacks, which also saw the killing of 100 girls in an elementary school and the adjacent clinic, Iran declared all US and Israeli targets in the Middle East to be legitimate. Seven Middle Eastern countries have been attacked: Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar; yesterday, a British base in Cyprus was hit. It should be noted that since 2021, Cyprus has hosted large-scale exercises by Israeli forces alongside British forces, so we feel confident that Tehran’s legitimate target, rather than the British base, was the training site for Israeli forces.
On March 2, Iran appointed Majid bin Alrcha as its new Defense Minister. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced that at the “Second Meeting of the Interim Governing Council, held in Iran with the participation of President Pezeshkian, Chief Justice Ejei, and Ayatollah Arafi,” it was decided to continue the war indefinitely.
The data now raising concerns about the worst are, on the one hand, attacks on nuclear sites and civilian nuclear power plants by the United States and Israel in Iran, and on the Iranian side, the activation of proxies: Hezbollah, pro-Hamas militias from Gaza; The Houthis in Yemen, the pro-Iranian militias in Iraq. Essentially, an all-out war on the doorstep of Western Asia is more possible today than ever before.
Failure to understand the phenomenon of war in the Middle East in its most complex aspects will lead to the failure of Western/Israeli strategies. They continue to insist they do not want Persia to invade the Mediterranean coast from the Middle East, following the example of the ancient Achaemenid Empire, as Israeli experts say, threatening Europe, which risks a new “invasion,” somewhat distorting ancient history for their own purposes. The epic battle of Thermopylae (favorite in the filmic, non-historical reimagining of 300); the Battle of Salamis, all the way up to Alexander the Great, all tell us that the ancient Persian Empire stopped at the gates of Greece. It then advanced further into the region, only to succumb to the Macedonian phalanxes, wanting to greatly simplify events. But the Achaemenids were not Muslims, and the Jews were busy elsewhere. Then came the various phases of the Muslim empire, but that’s another story, one that should never be read and judged through the eyes of the present.
What is certain is that Iran has been preparing for this conflict for over twenty years, and Qassem Soleimani was entrusted with the task of training pro-Iran militias against Israel throughout the Middle East. There are loyal groups in Bahrain, Kuwait, Iraq, cells in Jordan, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and even historic groups like Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas and its affiliates in Gaza.
To return to the story: Donald Trump said: “We estimated it would take two or three weeks to eliminate part of the Iranian leadership, but we destroyed everything in a week. This happened much sooner than expected. We always considered the operation a four-week undertaking.” In an interview with the Daily Mail the day before, regarding the possibility of Saudi Arabia attacking Iran in response to attacks on its soil, he said: “They’re fighting, they’re fighting too.” Our actions are just and necessary to prevent the American people from confronting a nuclear-armed terrorist regime. For nearly fifty years, they’ve attacked the United States and shouted “Death to America” and “Death to Israel.” And again, he said, “No one could have done it except me.”
Iran does not have a nuclear weapon, and despite the IAEA’s statements, there is no evidence to prove that Iran has nuclear weapons.
Last night, the US Senate held its first administration briefing on Iran. According to the New York Times, Israel and the United States have attacked more than 2,000 targets in Iran. US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth did not rule out the possibility of a ground operation by US troops in Iran in a press conference. He noted that there are currently no American troops there, but added, “We will not discuss what we will or will not do.”
All U.S. military bases are on high alert. They are currently at the Bravo alert level. This means there is a greater or more anticipated threat of terrorist activity, but there is no specific information on the location and time of the attack. Four soldiers have currently been killed and at least 18 injured.
An EU ministerial meeting was scheduled for March 2 in Cyprus, but was canceled following a Hezbollah drone attack, reportedly targeting a British base on the island. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has banned the United States from using Spanish military bases for attacks against Iran. Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani says he has received requests from Gulf states for logistical support and arms supplies.
French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot: “France is ready to participate in the defense of the Persian Gulf countries.” But he has denied reports of sending its only nuclear-powered aircraft carrier to the Middle East; Berlin, Paris, and London say they are ready to take “defensive actions” to “destroy” Iran’s military potential.
The foreign ministers of the Persian Gulf countries issued a joint statement: “In light of Iran’s unjustified aggression, all necessary measures will be taken, including the ability to respond to the aggression.” The Jordanian Foreign Ministry summoned the head of the Iranian Embassy in Amman in connection with the attacks against Jordan and Arab countries. The Saudi Arabian Ministry of Defense stated: “Two drones were intercepted at the Ras Tanura oil refinery; no injuries were reported. A small fire was caused by shrapnel from the interceptor.”
British Labour Party leader Keir Starmer said he accepted the United States’ request to use British bases to launch preemptive strikes against Iranian depots or missile launchers.
The Israeli government approved the extension of the state of emergency in the rear areas until March 12. Reuters: “Israel’s primary objective vis-à-vis Iran is to weaken the regime and bring about its overthrow. Israel has its own methods to bring Iranians to the streets.” Zamir, IDF Chief of Staff: “Many more days of fighting lie ahead.” On March 2, Netanyahu’s plane landed in Berlin, at Tel Aviv’s request.
Israeli President Herzog: “This campaign is truly historic and important, and I say to the children of Israel who wanted to change their clothes, you will continue to say and repeat, God willing, that these were historic days, and if their messengers think they can test us, I advise them to refrain from doing so. We are determined not to tolerate this moment.”
An Israeli soldier told Inter Bellum News that the ongoing exchange of missile attacks is severely straining Israel’s air defense systems and supply chains. Describing the internal climate, the source said frankly, “We are fucking angry,” citing frustration with the intensity of the current campaign.
The Mossad issued a statement in Persian: “We are resolutely pursuing our path to overthrow the regime. The main forces of repression have been eliminated, and others are fleeing in panic.” The Israeli Defense Minister announced: “Hezbollah Secretary General Naim Qassem is now a designated target for elimination.”
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claims to have shot down two Israeli Hermes drones. Iranian TV: “The world will soon be in for a big surprise.” Iranian National Security Council Chairman Ali Larijani: “Trump has betrayed the ‘America First’ principle to embrace an ‘Israel First’ policy.” “Iran, unlike the United States, has prepared for a protracted war,” said Iranian National Security Council Secretary Ali Larijani.
Revolutionary Guard Corps Announcement No. 9: “Residents of the occupied territories are advised to stay away from military bases, security centers, and government institutions and to immediately leave Gaza, the West Bank, and Israel.” Khamenei’s wife, Mansoura Khojasta, died from wounds sustained in an attack.
And now a look at the frontline between the Middle East and Iran, updated as of 4:00 PM on March 2. US and Israeli attacks have inflicted an operational defeat. Iran, but a strategic victory is not yet in sight. Iran, for its part, has achieved clear operational successes: asymmetric attacks against US military targets in the Persian Gulf region. Unlike Jordan and Israel, the American missile defense system is failing to fulfill its mission. There is destruction and casualties. As a result, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and other countries are already opposing Tehran, which has so far hesitated to strike its own oil production facilities.
So, while Washington and Tel Aviv have achieved operational successes, Tehran has also succeeded. As a result, the fighting is rapidly reaching a stalemate. The problem with this development is that, once again, both the Islamic Republic and the US-Israeli alliance have set strategic goals, but have attempted to achieve them with simple tactical and operational strategies. For the White House and Benjamin Netanyahu, the answer is: kill Iranian leaders and replace them with new, loyal leaders. But that’s not how you achieve a strategic victory. Iran, with its theocracy and social life, has proven too complex a target for simple intervention. After the attacks on Iran, gasoline prices in Europe increased by more than 22%. The cost of gas has skyrocketed by 48%.
Strait of Hormuz blocked. Crew members of a Chinese vessel near the Strait of Hormuz reported: “The ship’s clock has gone haywire and is spinning at a very high speed. GPS signals are completely distorted.” The stopped vessel displayed a speed of 33 knots. Disruptions to regional logistics services, a slowdown in exports, and a threat to production in the near future due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which has effectively become a no-go zone. The tanker Athen Nova (a US-allied vessel) in the Strait of Hormuz was hit by two drones and is on fire.
Red Sea blocked by Houthis: Maersk will halt shipments through the Red Sea due to the conflict in Iran.
Clashes between Afghanistan and Pakistan continue. The Afghan Defense Forces destroyed a Pakistani tank this morning in the Shakin district of Paktika province, outside the Angur Ada district, which was shelling Afghan territory. Presumably a Type 59 or Al-Zarrar.
Late in the night of March 1, a drone crashed at RAF Akrotiri base in Limassol, Cyprus. A loud explosion was heard in the area, along with the sound of sirens at the base and the takeoff of a plane. Personnel were ordered to return home, stay indoors, stay away from windows, and take shelter until further notice, the Cyprus Mail reports.
Cyprus Air Traffic Control: “Akrotiri military base has reported numerous rockets between Cyprus and Beirut.” Sirens sounded at Paphos Airport in Cyprus at approximately 12:00 PM due to an Iranian drone attack, with two downed. British bases have been evacuated. Greece has announced it will send two warships to protect Cyprus, including the frigate Kimon (F-601), along with several F-16 fighter jets from the Hellenic Air Force. Cyprus launches the ESTIA plan to evacuate EU citizens amid the escalation in the Middle East: Nicosia is ready to become a humanitarian hub for the repatriation of European and third-country nationals. Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides: “Cyprus is not and will not participate in any military operation.” A video shows the previously unreported presence of F-35s in Cyprus. Two drones headed for a British base in Cyprus were intercepted. Cyprus airport resumed flights this afternoon.
In Iraq, US aircraft are striking targets in the Iraqi city of Samawah. An Iraqi security source told Al Jazeera: A drone attempting to strike a US Embassy logistics camp near Baghdad International Airport was shot down. According to the Peshmerga: The 11th Division headquarters in Erbil was attacked by stray munitions. The US Air Force attacked the Popular Mobilization Units in Iraq’s Muthanna province. Clashes are reported in Erbil and Babylon.
Jordan is “partially and temporarily” closing its airspace following attacks over the previous three days.
The IDF attacked Al-Qard Al-Hasan (Hezbollah bank) in the Dahiya neighborhood of Beirut, Lebanon. Hezbollah announces its entry into the fight, so far only in words: We reaffirm our commitment to the leader of the martyrs and continue our jihad together with the Islamic Republic. It subsequently launched six missiles against Israel from Lebanon. Lebanon reports attacks on Burj al-Shamali, in the south of the country. The IDF confirms: the head of Hezbollah’s intelligence headquarters in Beirut has been killed. The IDF has begun attacking Hezbollah terrorist targets throughout Lebanon. The IDF Chief of Staff states that the IDF will not end operations until the threat from Lebanon is eliminated.
Israel used the Or Eitan laser air defense system for the first time in combat to intercept missiles on the northern border. Arrival in Beer Sheva, southern Israel. New Iranian missile launches toward Israel in the late morning of March 2. The Israeli Air Force and Navy have intercepted dozens of drones launched by Iran toward Israel since the beginning of the conflict. The Israel Defense Forces released footage showing a Navy warship shooting down a drone before it reached Israeli borders. Iranians claimed responsibility for attacks on the government complex and the Israeli Prime Minister’s office.
Extensive damage has been caused in Iran: three B-1B bombers struck Iran overnight. Tehran reported new attacks on the Iranian Broadcasting Agency building on March 2nd. The attacks in Tehran focused on internal security facilities, the Basij, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The main radar station, airport, and oil refinery in Tabriz were attacked. The missile base was almost completely destroyed. Satellite image showing three Iranian ships sunk by US forces in Konarak.
On March 2nd, Iran began targeting the world’s largest oil bases, located in Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia is shutting down one of the world’s largest oil refineries, Ras Tanura, after an Iranian drone attack. A video showing the fire at the Saudi Aramco facility in Ras Tanura appears to be significant. A source close to the Saudi government told AFP that Riyadh could respond militarily to a coordinated Iranian attack on Saudi oil facilities.
The United Arab Emirates claims to have intercepted more than 541 drones, 165 ballistic missiles, and two cruise missiles from Iran. The British oil tanker Hercules Star was damaged and is catching fire off the coast of the UAE. Interestingly, the ships have formed a sort of “defensive circle.” New attacks reported in Dubai.
Qatar halted liquefied natural gas production on March 2 due to attacks on the Ras Lafan and Masida production facilities. Gas prices in Europe surged more than 48% after QatarEnergy halted LNG production.
In Kuwait, bases remain under attack: an Iranian drone directly hits a US base in Kuwait. CNN confirms that a US F-15 fighter jet crashed in Kuwait, falling less than 10 kilometers from the Ali al-Salem US base. The pilot reportedly survived. Three F-15s were ultimately downed, with two theories: friendly fire; or improper use of Patriot missiles by an Iranian government loyalist belonging to the Kuwaiti forces. CENTCOM has admitted the loss of three F-15E fighter jets in Kuwait.
Smoke rising from the US Embassy in Kuwait. A fire appears to have broken out at the US Embassy in Kuwait, in the Persian Gulf. Eyewitnesses told the German news agency DPA that smoke was rising from the building. The cause of the fire remains unclear. “There is a constant threat of missile and drone attacks on Kuwait. Do not come to the embassy,” the U.S. Embassy in the country said. An Iranian drone struck a U.S. base In Kuwait.
In Bahrain, the ASRY company was hit in the Al Had area. This company provides maintenance and repair services to ships belonging to the United States Naval Shipbuilding Command (MSC), as well as ships of the Fifth Fleet. The Bahraini aluminum company Alba ceased operations after the Iranian attack. The US Embassy in Bahrain: “Terrorist groups and individuals inspired by them are determined to attack American citizens abroad. Kuwaiti citizens have been urged to stay home and remain vigilant due to possible missile attacks in the country.” The embassy has been closed.
Satellite imagery of the aftermath of the attacks on the US base in Bahrain shows Iran’s high precision. In the port of Bahrain, Iran attacked the US-flagged oil tanker Stena Imperative. A fire is reported to have broken out on board the vessel.
Agence France Presse reports: One person died after an attack on an oil tanker in waters off the coast of Oman. The Omani tanker Fium was damaged.
Antonio Albanese e Graziella Giangiulio
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