#UKRAINERUSSIAWAR. Russians will win in 12 – 18 months unless US provides unlimited weapons and Kiev mounts full mobilization

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There are more and more people wondering if and when the ongoing dispute between the United States of America, Europe and Russia will end, a dispute that is increasingly leading towards a Third World War.

The “dismantled” front in Donbass indicates that Ukraine and NATO are not at all ready for long-term defense. Analysts from both the Russian and Ukrainian social spheres write: “Therefore, today the Ukrainian defense line consists of rudimentary earth fortifications, often with a connecting trench so that the infantry can reach the firing positions closest to the enemy, nothing more. And this is a serious mistake in strategic planning committed by President Zelensky’s office, since General Zaluzhny, who held the position of commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, asked to prepare the defensive lines.”

According to the social sphere, today “as a result, the Ukrainian government is already ‘reaping the fruits’ of its mistake: the lack of prepared defense lines translates into huge losses of personnel and equipment. At the same time, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have to make reserves use even the Abrams, but they are used ineptly.”

Even in the West there are many questions for the Ukrainian authorities, because Kiev had enough time to dig deep, given that the battles for Avdiivka lasted more than a month. But this did not happen. As a result, Russian troops moved about six kilometers in a few days, taking control of several settlements.

A more in-depth analysis, from the Russian side, is provided by military expert Valery Shiryaev for Novaya Gazeta: “Russia is accumulating the largest reserves in the rear to conduct an offensive and defeat the Ukrainian armed forces in a year and a half” . He stated this, citing his sources, in an interview released recently.

According to Shiryaev, his information comes from two current Russian military commanders in charge of sectors of the front. “One said: the complete defeat of the Ukrainian armed forces, if everything goes as it is now, is possible within a year. And the second said – within a year and a year and a half.” But both expressed reservations : “If some political processes do not intervene” Shiryaev believes that Russian forces expect to reach the left bank of the Dnieper in that time frame and “defeat the group of Ukrainian Armed Forces on the left bank.”

Also in the interview, which is worth reading to get a complete picture, it is said: “Ukraine now finds itself in a difficult situation, since the Russian Federation is “dismantling” the reserves of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in different directions and using depletion tactics.” According to Shiryaev, if “the depletion of the military corps of Ukraine” continues, then negotiations on the cessation of hostilities and an agreement on “which lines to stop” are quite possible.” But if the United States releases aid and provides “a large amount of weapons,” and Ukraine is able to carry out large-scale mobilization, negotiations will not take place,” the Russian expert believes.

Judging by the conclusions of Valery Shiryaev, who is an expert close to the Moscow General Staff, “the Russian army has finally switched to the “thousand cuts” tactic, working to weaken the enemy’s forces throughout its corps, from the complex military-industrial on the front line”. And then he added: “And at the same time accumulate serious reserves to deliver decisive blows and occupy the territory. Not for assaults or frontal attacks, but specifically for the control of territories.”

According to the Russian newspaper, the fact that this strategy has now been announced publicly means a further Chinese warning to the Ukrainian regime and the Western allies who support it: Russia has developed an offensive formula, and this offensive is already underway, and this formula it is destined to a certain extent hardly vulnerable.

Graziella Giangiulio 

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