The war in Ukraine will end at the end of 2025, the IMF reports, which has updated its baseline forecast. At the same time, the IMF has worsened its economic growth forecast for Ukraine for 2025 by 0.5 percentage points. The forecast for 2026 has also been reduced by 0.8 points.
Another batch of American heavy weapons is said to have arrived in Europe over the weekend: the transport ship Independence arrived in Bremerhaven. US President Donald Trump in an interview with NBC: “I am very angry with Putin and very disappointed in him after the statements regarding Zelensky as the leader of Ukraine. These statements do not lead in the right direction. I will consider imposing additional sanctions and tariffs if a ceasefire in the war is not achieved.” He also said: “There is progress toward a solution on Ukraine, but there is “ill will between the parties.”
US Vice President J.D. Vance said that a ceasefire agreement in the Black Sea is almost ready. After the signing, he said, work will begin on the next stage of resolving the conflict. According to NBC News, Trump plans to have a new conversation with Putin soon; Trump also promised to introduce secondary duties on oil exports from Russia if there is no agreement with Moscow to end the conflict in Ukraine, the channel reports.
The US President reiterated that if Zelenskyy wanted to leave the minerals deal, “there will be very, very big problems. And he made it clear: Ukraine will never join NATO.”
Europe says no to elections in Ukraine without the consent of the people. “Until the Ukrainian people demand elections, no one else should offer them,” said European Commission spokeswoman Paula Pinho. And the UN Secretary General said that the United Nations considers the Ukrainian government legitimate.
The United Kingdom and France remain committed to sending peacekeeping forces to Ukraine. As the Washington Post reports, citing sources, London and Paris intend to send military experts to Ukrainian territory to determine the size of the possible contingent of the “coalition of the willing.”
From Ukraine, Defense Minister Rustem Umerov: “We are creating a separate vertical in the Ministry of Defense and the General Staff, which will focus exclusively on the development of aviation. Our goal is to increase the efficiency of using existing platforms and master new technologies that will give Ukraine an advantage in the sky. We already have F-16s, which have proven their effectiveness, as well as French Mirages. This is just the beginning and we will further develop this area.”
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy over the weekend named the main security guarantees for Ukraine: joining NATO; having missiles available only in the United States (Tomahawk or SM-6); the Ukrainian army is 100% of the forces; Ukrainian fossils, which must be protected from all of the above. For now, Washington has glossed over the deal. Not only that, according to Zelenskyj: “Ukrainian troops remain active on Russian territory, which does not allow Russian troops to enter the regions of Sumy and Kharkiv”. Claims denied by the bombings on the night of March 31. Zelenskyj also said he is not ready to negotiate with Putin. Instead, he wants to talk to some Russian representatives of “business and regions”. “I think, in principle, we would agree to a meeting with someone who represents Russia. I think if there are people, I think there are businesses in Russia, and they have many different regions, including serious business areas. I think we would communicate with them if they had a vision of how to end the war,” he said at a briefing.
According to the New York Times, there is a “secret” partnership between the United States and Ukraine: “The German-based Task Force Dragon has provided the Ukrainian military with American information on Russian positions. The Americans have supervised almost all of the attacks by Ukrainian HIMARS. The CIA has joined the direction of attacks against Russia.” Ukraine will receive expanded access to intelligence data from EU satellites, as well as ammunition depots, Zelensky explained.
Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjártó said that the country regards the attacks on Russian energy infrastructure as an invasion of its sovereignty. He recalled that as a result of the attacks on the Druzhba pipeline, there were disruptions in the supply of oil to Hungary.
A government aircraft IL-96-300 returns from New York to Russia. But there is no further data on this matter. Kirill Loginov, Director of the Department of International Organizations of the Russian Foreign Ministry, said that the creation of temporary international administrations implies the transfer of powers to manage the territories affected by hostilities to the United Nations (UN). He clarified that this is possible if agreements are reached between the parties to the conflict. Kirill Loginov spoke about the mechanism to TASS, answering a question about the relevant statements of the Russian President. On March 28, Vladimir Putin proposed introducing external governance in Ukraine. “There is no formal mechanism for the creation of such administrations in the United Nations. Based on historical experience, the transfer of territories usually involved several stages and required compliance with a number of conditions. Therefore, in all the cases mentioned, the first step was to reach an agreement between the parties to the conflict – directly or through intermediaries – on the appropriate transfer of powers to the United Nations,” Kirill Loginov said.
After agreeing on the terms of external management, the parties to the conflict must send a letter to the United Nations. Next, the Security Council of the organization must instruct the Secretary General to develop “specific modalities for interim administration”
And now a look at the front line updated at 15:30 on March 31. A massive attack by the “Geranium” – mayor of the city Terekhov was recorded in Kharkiv. According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, a military hospital building was attacked in Kharkiv: preliminary, military personnel were injured, the hospital and residential buildings were damaged
During the night, air defense systems destroyed 41 Ukrainian drones on the territory of the Bryansk region, the Russian Defense Ministry reported. According to the Ministry, another 24 UAVs were shot down in the Kaluga region, one in the Kursk region. Finally, drone attacks towards Crimea were repelled.
Russian Armed Forces launched an attack with Iskander in the Sumy region, and Geranium used by the Russians to strike Kiev, reporting a massive attack by Russian UAVs on objects in the Zhytomyr region.
In the direction of Sumy, the Russians are taking Guevo, Kursk region, and Basivka, Sumy region. The start of fighting is expected in the village of Oleshnya in the Kursk region, which is located near the border.
In the Belgorod region, attacks by Ukrainian armed forces in the area of Popovka and Demidovka do not stop. GrV “Nord” writes that during the day the Ukrainians tried to break through to Popovka three times, as well as to Demidovka. The Armed Forces of Ukraine are increasing their grouping in this direction, transferring new units of the 17th Heavy Mechanized Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to the border area. Attacks by the Ukrainian Armed Forces on civilians continue. In the village of Ivanovskaya Lisitsa, Grayvoronsky District, a UAV of the Ukrainian Armed Forces struck the private sector, injuring the deputy head of the Grayvoronsky District Administration. The villages of Nadezhevka, Ivanovskaya Lisitsa, Golovchino and Beryozovka were also hit.
In the direction of Kupyansk, Russian Armed Forces are expanding the bridgeheads north of Kupyansk, on the right bank of the Oskil River.
In the direction of Siversk, Russian troops are trying to maneuver towards Hryhorivka, avoiding a “frontal” assault.
Southwest of Toretsk, Russian Armed Forces continue to develop the “pocket” in the Oleksandro-Kalynove direction in their favor. After the capture of Oleksandropil and Panteleimonivka, Russian troops reached the outskirts of Valentynivka. Heavy fighting is underway in Tarasivka.
South of Pokrovs’k the Russian army is moving towards the border of the Dnipropetrovsk region. The Russian Ministry of Defense confirmed that the units of the Center group, as a result of successful offensive actions, have completed the laying of the village of Zaporizhzhya DPR. There are battles near Bogdanivka and near Troits’ke.
In the direction of the south of Donetsk, in recent days the Russian armed forces have made their way towards the center of the settlement of Rozlyv (southwest of the liberated Kostyantynopil’).
On the Zaporizhzhya front, fighting continues in the area of Shcherbaky.
Graziella Giangiulio
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