#UKRAINERUSSIAWAR. For Kiev it is the last chance but Moscow has the numbers to win on paper


The meeting of donor countries of military aid to Ukraine will be held on June 15 in Brussels, the Pentagon announced. By now the rumors of a last chance for the Ukrainian army to be able to retake the territories are increasingly strong. Many have tried to date the start of the Ukrainian counter-offensive, for some it has already begun, for others it has not, still others report that the Ukrainians deny it because it is not going as they hoped.

Moreover, the rumors according to which from overseas, Langley, is preparing for a plan “b” which would take Zelensky out of the political scene with accusations of various kinds to freeze the conflict and above all once again there will be only one US invisible hand to eliminate the premier from the political scene will be someone else.

The United States, Europe and NATO countries need more than promises of eventual victory in the probable future. Kiev therefore currently has only one path: the success of the counter-offensive. To go all the way, which means, without adequate air cover, to send thousands of mobilized to their deaths.

Despite the analyzes carried out by military experts, no one knows the numbers of Zelensky’s counter-offensive. The Russian armed forces have been adopting a new tactic since the end of April: strategic strikes against targets behind the front lines, such as command posts, concentration of troops and reserves, stockpiling of equipment, UAVs, ammunition, fuel depots, etc. The purpose of the attacks is to slow down and block a potential counter-offensive by the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces as planned in April launched a counter-offensive in the Bakhmut/Artyomovsk direction and in three or four directions, using an 80,000-strong corps with a large amount of Western weapons and materials but no air force.

Not only that, according to David T. Pyne, an American electronic warfare scientist and former Pentagon official, Russia blocks the GPS system to interfere with the guidance of drones supplied to the Ukrainians. Pyne said that “the Russian military’s current electronic warfare systems could make a planned counter-offensive by Ukrainian forces much more difficult.”

Referring to Russian EW systems in general, Pyne explained that “what makes them unique is their ability to jam not only enemy radar and communications, but also satellite guidance and the range of positioning signals far beyond the systems jamming ranges, reportedly up to 200-500 kilometers.These characteristics help to suppress early warning systems and severely disrupt or compromise the military command and control systems of potential adversaries, making it difficult for them to conduct offensive or even defensive operations.

According to data leaked online, Zelensky would have managed to enlist up to 1-2 million recruits who, however, have no training and above all do not know how to use the weapons that came as a dowry from Western donors.

The Russian military has begun using a new online recruitment system and has reportedly mobilized 400,000 new recruits this year.

Poland has launched a nationwide mobilization to raise the number of active conscripts to 300,000 this year. In addition, Poland has concluded agreements mainly with the United States for the supply of a huge amount of all kinds of weapons and materials.

There are many rumors and hypotheses about possible “deals” between Poland and Ukraine, even about some kind of state union or union that would allow Ukraine to become a member of the EU and NATO as soon as possible. Zelenskiy visited Poland in early April and reportedly concluded various deals to secure Ukraine’s position in the spring offensive, possibly including a draft treaty of alliance with Poland. At the same time, this historical process materializes a direct open war between NATO and Russia. Whether Western decision makers are ready for such a direct confrontation remains to be seen.

One thing the donors are aware of: if the offensive fails, there won’t be enough forces to strike again, and it remains an open question whether Ukraine’s allies will pursue another major round of rearmament. Western Europe is experiencing a shortage of supplies. The Biden administration has competing priorities in the Far East and in the presidential race against a resurgent Trump.

This gives the counteroffensive a “Do-or-Die” character. Those in Europe and the United States who have refrained from calling for new negotiations will almost certainly return to visit “Ukrainian territories in exchange for peace.” It seems that the West is already prompting Zelensky : attack or sign peace agreements, which means loss of territory and almost certainly loss of power.

The Ukrainian garrison in Zaporozhzhia has more than 50,000 troops, including Western-trained fighters and new equipment, including tanks. There are also large reserves of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Dnipropetrovsk region – at least 100-150 thousand people. It should be noted that they are kept away from the front and will be able to enter battle on the move. It is reported that in the Bachmut area in anticipation of the offensive there are troops of the Armed Forces of Ukraine numbering from 50,000 to 80,000 people. However, from these troops, the Ukrainian Armed Forces sent new reinforcements to Bachmut’s “meat grinder” every day and this significantly reduced the number of combat-ready soldiers by about 30%.

As for Russian troops, last fall’s partial mobilization recruited 300,000 reservists and 100,000 volunteers. Currently, the Russian Federation has reportedly concentrated 113 battalion battlegroups in the Zaporozhzhia direction and 205 BTGs in the Donetsk direction. Based on the fact that there can be 600-900 people in one BTG, this means 190-286 thousand people in the reserve who are not currently participating in hostilities. Until now, most of the newly formed troops were outside the front line in reserve.

If these generally collected data from the social sphere come close to reality, it certainly means that Russia has more than enough reserves to cope with any Ukrainian invasion.

Graziella Giangiulio

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