Israeli journalist Doron Kadosh’s page states: “Heed should be given to the Israeli military’s warnings published on January 29 regarding Hamas’s strengthening and rearmament as we enter the second phase of the agreement. As I understand it, the Israeli military has begun to formulate a narrative describing the current situation in Gaza as follows: 1. Hamas is strengthening and has no intention of disarming. 2. Hamas is profiting enormously from the enormous number of truckloads of humanitarian aid. 3. Hamas is not interested in measures such as the formation of a technocratic committee, because it will continue to practically manage Gaza and control the local armed forces. 4. The intervention of Qatar and Turkey harms Israeli interests and will only serve to strengthen Hamas. 5. Any possible future move, such as opening the Rafah crossing to goods, under international pressure, would be a disaster that would bring us back to the events of the 6th.” October. The Israeli army (likely with the support of the political leadership) is beginning to formulate a narrative aimed at building internal and external legitimacy, paving the way for a possible return to fighting in Gaza, with the goal of defeating and disarming Hamas.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) acknowledged for the first time the death toll reported by Gaza’s Ministry of Health, stating that approximately 71,000 Palestinians have been killed since the start of the war. Israel noted that this figure does not include those buried under rubble. And it is temporarily contesting the civilian death toll provided by the United Nations, claiming that not a single healthy person died of starvation, the Jerusalem Post reports.
While several international groups have claimed that the vast majority of the victims were civilians, the IDF continues to dispute this figure and has claimed that approximately 25,000 were Hamas terrorists. Furthermore, the IDF presented evidence that, until early 2024—a period when Hamas was launching large rocket salvos daily—approximately 13% of their rockets missed their targets, resulting in the deaths of many Palestinians.
Tensions are rising in the Middle East: the European Union has declared the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps a terrorist organization. Not only has the European Commission registered a popular initiative to completely ban all imports from Russia and Belarus to the European Union, but the initiative’s authors must collect one million signatures in support in at least seven EU countries.
According to CBS, attempts to accelerate direct negotiations between the United States and Iran have failed. US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth insists: “Iran has every option to reach an agreement. We have the capacity to do what is expected of the War Department.”
The Daily Telegraph reports the landing of an American nuclear monitoring plane at a British air base in Suffolk, amid escalating tensions with Iran.
The head of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) Military Intelligence Directorate, General Shlomi Binder, traveled to Washington this week for talks with the US administration, amid ongoing tensions with Iran. Binder held meetings at the Pentagon, the CIA, and the White House. Israeli media are spreading reports that Iran has received advanced missile technology from Russia. According to reports, Iran now has 300 hypersonic missiles with 2.1-ton warheads, designed to destroy US Navy ships.
Channel 12 reports that the US destroyer DDG 119 Delbert D. Black has docked in the Israeli port of Eilat for exercises with the Israeli military. According to all reports, the United States has deployed eight destroyers and an aircraft carrier to the Middle East, with a total of 756 vertical launch tubes ready to launch missiles for attack and air defense.
Reuters reports that Trump is considering attacks on government and defense facilities in Iran to encourage protesters to resume demonstrations. Specifically, the possibility of targeting senior officials the United States holds responsible for repressing the latest wave of protests is being considered, in the hope that this will restore protesters’ confidence in the possibility of overthrowing the regime. Trump is also considering a large-scale attack that would leave a “lasting effect,” such as severe damage to Iran’s missile or nuclear programs. Israel and Arab countries are warning Trump that airstrikes alone will not lead to the overthrow of the regime.
Other sources report that Washington, in collaboration with Great Britain, France, Israel, and four Arab countries, has drawn up a list of targets for attacks against Iran.
Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi: “Europe is making a grave strategic mistake by declaring the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps a ‘terrorist organization.'” Tehran has designated the French and German armed forces as terrorist entities after designating the Revolutionary Guard Corps as a terrorist organization and is considering expelling their ambassadors and closing their embassies. During a phone call with his Iranian counterpart, Abbas Araghchi, Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov confirmed that Azerbaijan will not allow its territory and airspace to be used for military operations against Iran or other countries. The Iranian Foreign Minister flew to Moscow on the 29th and was in Turkey on the 30th. According to Israeli sources, Pezeshkian traveled to Moscow. According to rumors from the Axis of the Resistance, Ali Larijani, Secretary of the Supreme Security Council, is in Moscow. Iran’s National Assembly, marking his second visit to Russia in recent months. The visit comes as Russia has expressed its willingness to mediate between Iran and Israel and previously said it had exchanged messages between the two sides.
Iran informed Egypt of its refusal to negotiate on American terms and warned it that it could attack American targets throughout the region. El-Sisi: “We believe that the Iranian crisis could have very serious repercussions on our region if fighting were to erupt, in addition to economic repercussions.”
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan received US Ambassador to Ankara and Special Representative for Syria, Tom Barrack. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan stated that Turkey is observing Israel working to convince the United States to attack Iran, warning that such efforts could seriously damage an already fragile regional situation.
And now a look at the military scenarios updated at 2:30 PM on January 30. The U.S. military buildup in the Persian Gulf will be completed in the coming days, Axios reported, citing U.S. administration sources. The USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier strike group, along with a squadron of F-15 fighters and C-17 military transport aircraft, have already arrived in the region, presumably equipped with THAAD and Patriot air defense systems, which will be ready between January 31 and February 1. Three U.S. Air Force aerial refueling aircraft flew from Morón Air Base, Spain, to Al Udeid Air Base, Qatar, on January 30.
According to Israeli media, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has also deployed Belarusian-made Vostok-1 radars and new mine countermeasures systems on the islands in the Strait of Hormuz (Greater and Lesser Tunb, and Abu Musa). Iran will conduct live-fire exercises next week. I live in the Strait of Hormuz, which could disrupt trade routes. Iran has issued a warning to ships traveling in the area. Russian and Chinese warships will be deployed in the Gulf of Oman, near the Strait of Hormuz, to conduct joint naval exercises with the Iranian Navy.
Iran is preparing for the worst: Tehran Mayor Alireza Zakani has announced that several metro stations will be transformed into public shelters due to the high risk of war. Meanwhile, the Iranian opposition reports that in Iran, the wounded are avoiding hospitals due to the risk of detention, and doctors are being punished for providing care. A surgeon risks the death penalty for treating protesters.
The Iranian opposition website Iran International reports that the Italian Embassy in Tehran has reduced its staff and called on the country’s citizens to leave Iran immediately. The German Embassy in Tehran also calls on its citizens to leave Iran immediately.
The Directorate General Iranian intelligence in the northwest province of Zanjan reported the arrest of 85 armed uprising leaders in the province. Four military and hunting weapons, as well as ammunition and incendiary bombs, were seized and confiscated.
Lebanese media reported significant GPS signal disruptions along the Lebanese coast. On January 29, an Israeli contingent entered the Lebanese town of Yaroun and evicted a family from their home in preparation for demolition. The Israeli army targeted a car in the southern Lebanese town of Sidqine.
Antonio Albanese e Graziella Giangiulio
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