Iraq is facing yet another dramatic turn of events signed by Muqtada al-Sadr. The announcement of his non-participation in the next elections has further shaken the political landscape, reopening questions about the future of the country. Although he officially retired from politics in 2022, his influence remains strong, especially among disillusioned young people and the working class. His political history is a succession of abandonments and returns; also for this reason, the news must be taken with due caution. And just as the maneuvers in view of the October vote become more intense, uncertainty reigns supreme. The recent moves of the Shiite leader, such as the request to his supporters to update the electoral data, also keep attention alive and fuel doubts connected to his intentions. And it is no coincidence that several political blocs have sent their emissaries to Najaf, in an attempt to decipher his real intentions.
During the week, al-Sadr reiterated his position, declaring his non-participation in the elections and calling on his loyalists to boycott the polls. This statement has unleashed an earthquake in the Iraqi political landscape, rekindling calls for a cleansing of the system, calling for the removal of corrupt figures involved in money laundering. In parallel, the rise of new civilian forces suggests a possible change of guard in the national leadership, opening up a fierce competition for the formation of the next government. Explaining his choice, al-Sadr said: “Let it be known to all that, as long as there is corruption, I will not participate in any imperfect electoral process that only deals with sectarian and party interests, far removed from the suffering of the people and the disasters that have befallen the region due to Iraq’s involvement in foreign conflicts.” He continued: “I continue to rely on the obedience of the loyal supporters of the Sadrist Movement in the Shiite Patriotic Movement, and as I ordered them to vote, today I order them not to vote or run for office, because it is a support for sin. We remain loyal to Iraq and will sacrifice our lives for it.” He also condemned collaboration “with corrupt and Baathist individuals while Iraq is gasping for breath, dominated by foreign powers and deep state forces.”
A source close to al-Sadr confirmed to Shafaq News that “Al-Sadr has made it clear that neither he nor any of his political followers or former MPs will participate in the elections. This decision is binding for everyone, including those who wish to run in other lists or alliances, as such individuals will be considered external to the Sadrist Movement,” and added that “anyone who participates in the elections will be expelled from the Shiite National Movement and will no longer be considered part of al-Sadr’s circle.” Political analyst Kamal Nuwaf al-Ghreiri agrees with this line, saying that “the big political blocs and leaderships have failed in their work, leading the country from one failure to another.” Hamed al Sayed, of the National Line Movement, noted that the Sadrists’ withdrawal creates a “legitimate and popular political breach” in the system, warning that ignoring this fact could have disastrous consequences for Iraq, and that political forces must abandon the illusion of a stable regime without the participation of the Sadrists, noting that the withdrawal is not simply an internal organizational decision, but rather an important position whose messages must be taken seriously.
The consequences of this withdrawal may be diverse. Observers from “Lawwan News” predict a possible low turnout, especially in Shiite areas, undermining the legitimacy of the vote. Al-Sadr’s decision could be, according to some, an attempt to re-mobilize his base outside of traditional political channels. Mahmoud al-Mashhadani, the speaker of the parliament, expressed his hope that al-Sadr would reconsider his decision, comparing the political process without the Sadrist movement to “food without salt”. The newspaper “Al-Ain” highlighted that the boycott of the vote by the Sadrists could have a significant impact, given their large base of support. It added that the presence of the Sadrist movement constitutes a balance against the traditional dominant forces, and its absence could lead to an imbalance of power within the parliament, resulting in the loss of the opposition in the House of Representatives, and that the absence of the Sadrist movement from the upcoming elections does not benefit Iraq, but will contribute to the persistence of quotas that weaken the national will.
The crucial question hovering over the Iraqi political scene is: where will the votes that traditionally went to the Sadrist movement go? The options are many and the outcome is far from certain. A significant portion of the supporters of al-Sadr could follow the leader’s indication and abstain from voting, leading to a generalized drop in turnout, especially in areas historically close to the movement. Some voters could turn to the new civil formations that are emerging, in search of a credible alternative to the traditional political system. It cannot be ruled out that a portion of the Sadrist votes could flow to parties already present in the political landscape, perhaps those that have shown themselves to be closer to the demands put forward by al-Sadr. Finally, it is possible that the votes will be dispersed among different political forces, without a clear winner, making the formation of a stable government even more complex.
Elisa Cicchi
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