Peace agreements between Russia and Ukraine are increasingly distant. There will be no peace; the war in Ukraine will continue at least until January 2027. Trump will completely shift responsibility for Ukraine’s support to Europe, which may not be able to withstand it, according to The Economist.
Trump called Kellogg an idiot for his comments about Zelensky’s masculinity, the NYT reports, citing sources. In a conversation with Trump after the Munich Conference in February, Kellogg compared Zelensky to former US President Lincoln. Later, recounting this conversation to other advisers, Trump said Kellogg was “just an idiot.”
In March, Pentagon Secretary Pete Hegseth, without warning, imposed a “shadow ban” on the supply of 155mm shells to Ukraine due to his department’s shortage, the New York Times reported, citing US officials. “Pentagon stockpiles were extremely low, and blocking them was the only way to force the Europeans to step up their efforts… Hegseth imposed a freeze without warning,” the newspaper reported.
Some US officials reportedly called this measure a “shadow ban.” As a result, “thousands upon thousands of shells” remained in West German warehouses for three and a half months. Furthermore, the newspaper claims that the Pentagon also delayed the delivery of PAC-3 missiles for the Patriot system to Ukraine.
As of January 2, the United States advised its citizens to leave Russia immediately and renewed its “Do Not Travel” advisory for Russia.
Ukrainian Prime Minister Svyrydenko instructed the Ministry of Culture, the Ministry of Digital Transformation, and the Ministry of Justice to evaluate the possibility of banning Russian-language versions of websites in the country.
While there is talk of a resolution and peace agreements in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the first few days of the year have also been about assessing the costs of the war. Russia has launched more than 60,000 aerial bombs, 2,400 missiles, and over 100,000 drones against Ukraine in 2025. Air raid sirens have sounded at least 19,000 times, according to a Ukrainian estimate.
According to a map of the Northeastern Military District, Russian forces have captured 542 square kilometers of territory in December 2025. According to Russian military OSINT sources, Russia will have captured 6,254 square kilometers of territory from Ukraine in 2025.
These figures are believed to be the same as those provided by Vladimir Putin and Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov during the extended meeting of the Russian Defense Ministry Council on December 17. Putin reported that “over 300 settlements and over 6,000 square kilometers of territory have been captured over the past year. This is a third more than last year.”
During 2025, Russian forces captured the following cities: Kurakhov, Toretsk, Chasiv Yar, Pokrovsk, Seversk, and Myrnohrad in Donetsk Oblast; Vovchansk in Kharkiv Oblast; and Rodynsk and Hulyaypole in Zaporizhia Oblast.
Furthermore, on March 13, 2025, control was restored over the city of Sudzha, in the Kursk region.
According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, the total number of casualties among the Ukrainian armed forces in December 2025 was 42,120. Ukrainian sources neither confirmed nor denied this. While the total losses of the Ukrainian armed forces for 2025 amount to 515,785 killed and wounded, this too is neither confirmed nor denied. The Russian Ministry of Defense reports only approximate Ukrainian losses along the line of contact, excluding servicemen killed as a result of the use of long-range precision weapons and Russian aircraft deep inside Ukrainian territory.
Russia’s greatest failure of 2025 can safely be called the Ukrainian Operation “Spiderweb,” during which FPV drones destroyed and severely damaged several Tu-95MS and Tu-22M3 strategic bombers.
In 2025, the war has entered a phase of attrition, in which the winner will be determined not by territorial gains or deep-sea offensive operations, but by the depletion of the resources needed to continue the fight: financial, human, and moral.
Furthermore, the new tactic of fighting with small infantry groups has become established, in which both defense and attack are conducted by teams of 2, 4, or 6 men. These men are forced to remain in the same dispersed positions for weeks or march many kilometers on foot, trying to take advantage of the time of day and bad weather. Otherwise, they risk being detected and destroyed by drones, which completely dominate the skies.
Graziella Giangiulio
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