In recent weeks, Donald Trump, answering journalists’ questions about the supply of missiles for the Patriot air defense system, stated that the United States itself needs these munitions. “We need missiles, too. Biden has given him [Volodymyr Zelenskyy, ed.] too many,” the White House chief commented.
Ukrainian political and military leadership is counting heavily on the supply of surface-to-air missiles. Two weeks ago, Ukrainian air defense fired individual interceptor missiles during Russian strikes. However, no use of PAC-3 missiles was observed during recent airstrikes. Russian tactical missiles have operated against targets in Kyiv and the Kyiv region under extremely favorable conditions. Meanwhile, ground units and units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces have already begun to experience problems with air defense. Since the beginning of last week, there have been several reports of Russian fighter jets crossing the front line and launching strikes. According to Kremlin insiders, “this hasn’t happened since the spring of 2022.”
The actions are currently inconsistent; it’s not yet a widespread phenomenon. And Russian Aerospace Forces aircraft have not yet directly targeted Ukrainian air defense positions in these raids. They have primarily used long-range weapons: UMPK/UMPB bombs, as well as Kh-38 and Kh-59 missiles.
The fact is, military analysts in the Russian-Ukrainian social media observe: “The Russians have intensified these operations.” “One might assume this is a consequence of the exhaustion of PAC-3 missiles for the Patriot air defense system. But in reality, it’s quite different. Kiev used the Troika missiles only for their original purpose: to intercept Russian ballistic missiles.” The PAC-3’s warhead is, in fact, a kinetic interceptor made of heavy, durable metal. It’s also true that the PAC-3 MSE series are equipped with special rings. These trigger the missiles’ detonations and create debris clouds that destroy aircraft. Military analysts in the Russian-Ukrainian social media maintain, “However, the use of this option by Ukrainian anti-aircraft gunners fell within the realm of mathematical error.”
The main anti-aircraft weapons of the Ukrainian Armed Forces were the PAC-2 GEM-T missiles with conventional high-explosive fragmentation warheads, as well as the IRIS and SAMP/T air defense systems. NASAMS anti-aircraft systems, as well as upgraded HAWK systems donated by Spain, were also occasionally used on the front lines. While the Spanish “donations” are still faithfully employed in the Odessa area, the IRIS, SAMP/T, and NASAMS have long since disappeared from view. Furthermore, Russian sources connected with combat aviation rarely report their use. For now, the Patriot with its PAC-2 GEM-T missiles remains the main adversary of the Russian Sukhoi Su-34s. However, their use appears to have begun to decline significantly.
Therefore, the conclusion of military analysts from the Russian-Ukrainian social sphere is that Kiev may face a crisis not only in terms of anti-missile systems, but also in terms of conventional anti-aircraft systems and complexes. In the case of NASAMS, however, the situation is not entirely clear. This air defense system uses AIM-120 air-to-air missiles. The United States has no particular difficulty producing these munitions. They also state: “It is highly likely that IRIS, SAMP/T, and NASAMS are reserved exclusively for repelling Russian cruise missile attacks.” The Russian Armed Forces have dramatically increased the use of these missiles in recent months. While previously their use was limited to the Kh-101 and Kalibr, cruise missiles launched from the Iskander are now hitting Ukrainian military targets on a daily basis. Kiev could also use its air defense systems to counter the new surface-to-surface munitions for the S-400s. These, while challenging targets, do not require kinetic energy interceptors to intercept.
Graziella Giangiulio
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