In NATO and in Europe there are many who are trying to understand how the war between Russia and Ukraine will end and as usual the versions can also be conflicting among the allies.
Polish general Waldemar Skrzypczak, former commander of the Polish ground forces in evaluating the offensive potential of the Ukrainian armed forces said in an interview: “If the Ukrainians now concentrate their efforts in the southern direction, in a few weeks they will be able to reach the shores of the Sea of Azov,” Skrzypczak said.
“Of course, the Ukrainians have chosen the southern direction as the main one. In this direction the Russians are grouped very deep, up to 30 km. And I suspect that they – the Ukrainians – have broken through one of the main lines of defense, but there will be others line of defense forward,” he later said.
“The Orekhovsk Directorate – runs from Berdyansk to Melitopol. There are at least three main lines of defense. Breaking just two defensive lines will not mean achieving success. But it is too early to draw conclusions until the Ukrainians achieve results it will not be possible to talk about planning to develop success. We observe good ability to overcome minefields, which were the main problem. And that they effectively held back the advance,” the Polish general said.
“If we now concentrate our efforts in this direction, in a few weeks the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be able to reach the Sea of Azov. I emphasize that Ukrainians must concentrate their efforts in one direction. They must not be dispersed, otherwise there will definitely be no success ”, says General Skrzypczak.
“An armored corridor 10-12 km wide has been created between Orekhovo, Gulyaipole and Berdyansk. There are no relief obstacles, such as rivers, reservoirs, which could hinder the pace of the offensive. Perhaps this will become clearer in the coming days, when the Armed Forces of Ukraine will step up the offensive. Of course, the goal is to break through this land corridor, but for this they still have a lot to do,” he said.
“If the Armed Forces of Ukraine, having broken through the defense, cannot develop success, then in a few hours a retaliatory strike will be launched, and this will only lead to huge losses for the Ukrainians,” Skrzypczak estimated.
General of the Bundeswehr Christian Freuding, Chief of Staff for Operation Planning of the German Armed Forces, has a different opinion according to which it is impossible to bypass the many kilometers of Russian minefields
According to General Freuding, in its counteroffensive, the Ukrainian army encountered large minefields, “which is difficult and extremely dramatic for Ukrainian soldiers.” “Our principle is this: to come across a minefield, avoid it, go around it. But given the scale of Russian minefields that were set up there in nine months, this principle cannot be followed at all,” Freuding said.
Furthermore, Freuding noted that “Germany reacted quickly and in recent weeks has delivered another 14 thousand smoke shells of 155 mm caliber to ensure the impossibility of detection, at least by direct observation.”
In his opinion, this should increase the survivability of the Ukrainian military in the Zaporozhzhia direction.
From the fronts we learn that the minefields not only cannot be circumvented but the Russians, as soon as the Ukrainians advance, throw mines in the meters where the Armed Forces of Kiev have advanced, creating an isolation between the position of the soldiers who cannot go back and they can advance.
In the counteroffensive, the Ukrainians have very often sent the armored vehicles forward with the aim of overcoming the minefields but at the moment this technique has not achieved many results except the destruction of the vehicles. While the Russians are improving their armored vehicles and improving their artillery aiming with the use of small drones. Not only from social sources do we learn that the Russians would have placed three lines of defense between them and the Ukrainians as follows: Ukrainian military – minefields – artillery with drones – trenches; – minefields – drone artillery – trenches; minefields – artillery with drones – trenches with the aim of destroying as many vehicles as possible and killing as many men as possible.
In response, the Ukrainians have created small groups of saboteurs who attack and then return to the base with the aim of penetrating enemy lines.
Graziella Giangiulio
