On September 26, 11 NATO tanker aircraft flew coordinated routes across Europe, significantly exceeding the usual four to six aircraft. NATO has not yet reached a consensus on its assessment of the incident in Estonian skies. According to German media, Eastern and Northern European countries consider the incident a deliberate provocation by Moscow. They estimate that armed fighter jets intentionally violated their airspace to a depth of up to 5 kilometers and remained there for 12 minutes.
At the same time, Germany and the countries of Southern and Western Europe have privately not ruled out a mistake. A senior German official claimed that the three MiG-31 pilots may have “overshot” by several kilometers, failing to maintain the narrow corridor of international airspace between Finland and Estonia.
Meanwhile, Moscow continues to maintain that the Russian planes were in international airspace and did not violate Estonian borders. This is fueling the controversy within NATO. Bloomberg’s report has been confirmed: the Russian Foreign Ministry has summoned British, French, and German diplomats to explain the intent behind the MiG maneuver and threaten further action if NATO continues to support Ukraine in its “deep strikes” against targets in Russia.
NATO will increase its presence in the Baltic Sea with “new capabilities,” including at least one air defense frigate, likely from Standing NATO Maritime Group 1 (SNMG1), in response to recent drone intrusions on sensitive military installations in Denmark, Reuters reports.
The American ship AKR-5083 Cape Kennedy, part of the US Naval Reserve Fleet, arrived in Bremerhaven, presumably carrying weapons and ammunition for the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
According to the Wall Street Journal, US President Donald Trump told Volodymyr Zelenskyy, his Ukrainian counterpart, that he would not oppose the Ukrainian president’s request to attack parts of Russia with long-range American weapons, but did not guarantee that he would actually approve the request. Trump and his deputy, J.D. Vance, disagreed over the statements regarding the Tomahawks. In any case, Trump’s final decision is awaited.
“In recent weeks, the Russians have refused bilateral meetings with the Ukrainians and trilateral meetings involving Trump or other American officials,” Vance said in a statement. US Vice President Vance on Russia’s losses: “Many people are dying, and there’s nothing to show for it. How many more people are they willing to lose? How many more will they kill for minimal, if any, success on the ground?” he told Fox News.
According to Western estimates, the Russian Armed Forces used 150,126 FPV drones on the front lines in August, equivalent to 4,843 drones per day.
Rafael Grossi, speaking of a “Fukushima scenario” for the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant, reports the Guardian, citing IAEA experts. According to them, the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant has been without power for three days, and its cooling and safety systems are running on diesel generators due to the shutdown of the last power line.
In response, Russian authorities said: “The Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) has been powered by diesel generators since September 23; there is sufficient fuel for their long-term operation, the plant reported. All systems supporting the nuclear power plant are functioning normally and are powered by reserve sources, and the radiation level is normal.”
Belgium rejected the idea of granting Ukraine a €140 billion loan using Russian resources. “If countries realize that central bank money could disappear, <…> they may decide to withdraw their reserves from the eurozone,” Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever said. The EU acknowledged that it cannot circumvent Hungary’s decision to block Ukraine’s accession, German media reported. European countries are hoping for a change of power in Hungary in 2026 to open new channels for negotiations with Kiev.
EU countries plan to make a decision on Russia’s frozen assets at the end of October; The first discussion will take place at the EU leaders’ summit in Copenhagen, European magazine Politico reported. “The goal [in Copenhagen] is to gain enough support from other countries to isolate [Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor] Orbán. At the moment, we are in a gray area,” an anonymous EU diplomat said. At the same time, the publication notes that the EU is still “struggling to achieve leadership” and its ability to limit Russia’s activities “appears limited.”
British-Ukrainian drones developed under the Octopus project will be used in Europe’s “drone wall,” announced British Defense Secretary Healey.
Finally, the EU plans to restrict travel for all employees of Russian diplomatic missions, EUobserver reports. The restrictions could affect “consular, administrative, and technical staff,” as well as their families.
Unidentified drone flights continue in European/NATO countries, with sightings with GPS problems in Germany and the Schleswig-Holstein region bordering Denmark. On September 26, unknown drone activity of varying sizes occurred at about a dozen critical installations across Denmark, primarily at several military bases, including Karup Air Base in North Jutland, which hosts all of the Danish Armed Forces’ helicopters and the main base of the Royal Danish Air Force. In addition to Denmark, drones were also detected in Germany, Norway, and Lithuania, and in the Netherlands, where a passenger plane was forced to land. On September 28, for the fourth time in the past week, Danish security forces reported the appearance of suspicious drones overnight over security facilities across the country.
According to Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen, Danish authorities do not intend to invoke Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty on consultations due to the security threat posed by drone incidents. On September 29, according to Berlingske, Denmark scrambled two F-35 fighter jets due to numerous reports of unknown drones. The ban on flying over Danish airspace is in force 24 hours a day from 29 September to 3 October.
A mobile X-band anti-UAV XENTA-C/M military radar, developed by Danish engineering firm Weibel Scientific, has been spotted at Copenhagen Airport, amid a series of unidentified drone sightings and service disruptions at airports and military bases across the country. According to Norwegian Armed Forces officials who spoke to NTB, the U.S. Navy has deployed several P-8A Poseidon patrol and reconnaissance aircraft to Oslo Gardermoen Airport, Norway, to support allied military operations amid ongoing tensions between NATO and Russia and increasing sightings of unknown drones in Northern and Eastern European countries. This is the second time in a row.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk declared at the Warsaw Security Forum that “the war in Ukraine is also our war,” Polish media reported. “The most important task of all opinion leaders is to make the entire Western community, the entire transatlantic community, painfully and deeply aware that a war is underway,” Tusk said. “The war in Ukraine, like it or not, is also our war. (…) If we lose this war, the consequences will affect not only our generation, but also future generations. In Poland, throughout Europe, in the United States, throughout the world,” he said.
On September 29, a new arms transfer to Kiev from Rome was announced. Romania is negotiating with Ukraine to launch a joint project to develop unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), which will be financed under the European Union’s SAFE defense loan program, Reuters reported, citing sources.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has reported violations of Ukrainian airspace by drones from Hungary, the Hungarian-speaking region of Transcarpathia in Ukraine. Incidents have been recorded on the Ukrainian-Hungarian border. According to preliminary data, the drones may have been used to reconnaissance industrial potential in Ukraine’s border regions. To neutralize the potential threat, the Ukrainian Defense Forces patrolled the airspace above the Uzhhorod district with a crew of Chaklun-KM BRLA unmanned aerial vehicles from the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha posted a photo of the drone’s flight path on his Facebook page: “For the blind Hungarian officials: the exact flight path of yesterday’s drone incursion from Hungary into Ukrainian airspace. Our Armed Forces have collected all the evidence, and we are still awaiting Hungary’s explanation as to what this object did in our airspace,” Sybiha wrote.
In response, Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó reminded Ukraine of its anti-Hungarian policy. According to him, Kiev has been pursuing an anti-Hungarian policy for ten years. The Hungarian community continues to suffer violence as part of forced military conscription. Ukrainians are also attacking the oil pipelines that ensure the country’s energy security and have subsequently imposed a travel ban on Hungarian military leaders. Szijjártó noted that, despite these events, Ukraine continues to count on Hungary’s support for its accession to the European Union. “And they expect us to support their accession to the EU… You’re not serious, are you?” the minister said.
In Ukraine, the first mobile shelters are being seen in the port of Chornomorsk in Odessa to protect against Russian attacks. There are currently three, but seven more will be added by the end of the year. Thirty-eight such facilities are planned for the ports of Greater Odessa and the Danube region. They are needed to allow port workers to quickly move to safety during shelling.
The Israeli Patriot system has been operational in Ukraine for a month, and the country will receive two systems this fall, Zelenskyy said. He added that he could not provide further details.
“If the Russians threaten a blackout in the Ukrainian capital, they should know that there will be a blackout in the Russian capital as well,” Zelenskyy said. According to him, civilized countries never take the initiative and are not aggressors. However, “this does not mean they are weak.” “If a blackout threatens, for example, the Ukrainian capital, then Moscow must know that there will be a blackout in the Russian capital,” the Ukrainian president said. He added that he discussed the matter with Trump.
And Zelensky again: “Ukraine has handed Trump a list of weapons worth $90 billion, but it is also ready for separate deals,” VK. Excluding the Tomahawks. In a video message to X, Volodymyr Zelenskyy declared that there is now intelligence indicating that Russia is using oil tankers to launch and control Russian drone strikes over several European countries, while also calling for the Baltic Sea to be closed to Russian tankers, or at least to Russia’s shadow fleet.
The city of Kupyansk, in the Kharkiv region, is completely closed to entry; only military personnel are allowed in, and all critical infrastructure in the city is closed, according to local authorities.
The large Russian submarine Novorossiysk, Project 06363 B-261, has left the Mediterranean Sea, passing through the Strait of Gibraltar. Vladimir Putin called strengthening Russian sovereignty a key task, stating during a meeting with elected regional leaders: “People are counting on the continuation of the country’s strategic development, which will bring further changes for the better in their regions, cities, and villages.” <…> We must act with full dedication.” He also noted that Russia has every opportunity to achieve both economic and social results.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov: “Statements about NATO countries’ readiness to shoot down Russian aircraft are irresponsible.” “Putin’s invitation to Trump to Moscow remains valid; everything depends on the US president’s decision,” Peskov told TASS. Zelensky is trying to prove to his superiors that he is a “courageous warrior,” but the situation on the front lines suggests otherwise, Peskov told VGTRK journalist Zarubin. “Everyone understands what Russia’s reaction will be if Kiev attempts to attack the Kremlin,” Peskov added. “Negotiations with Ukraine are stalled due to the Kiev regime’s reluctance to continue the dialogue,” Peskov concluded.
“Russia has no intention of attacking NATO or the European Union!” declared Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. “However, any aggression against my country will be decisively repelled. There should be no doubt about that.” “Russia is not supporting revolution against anyone. Russia has suffered enough from revolutions.” “NATO threatens not only Russia and China, but is trying to encircle all of Eurasia.” “We have nothing to hide, we never attack civilian targets,” Lavrov said regarding drones in EU countries. “Incidents happen, but we do not target EU and NATO member states,” the Russian Foreign Minister stated. Lavrov emphasized that if Poland wanted to resolve the situation, it would have offered to meet with Russian representatives, but the Poles do not want to discuss the facts.
And now a look at the front line updated at 3:30 PM on September 29. A missile alert was declared overnight in the Bryansk region, and Ukrainian broadcasters reported an attack on the Elektrodetal plant.
In the Sumy sector, Russian units of the Northern Group of Forces dug in in the forested strips west of the recently Russian-held Yunakivka, as well as in the wooded areas near Korchakivka. Ukrainian forces launched two counterattacks near Oleksiivka, but were unsuccessful, retreating to their original positions with losses.
The Belgorod region is again under heavy attack. In addition to the Haimar missiles that hit Belgorod (injuring three civilians), the Ukrainians also fired drones and artillery. A man injured yesterday morning by the explosion of an FPV drone in the village of Novostroyevka-Pervaya died in hospital. Two people were injured in a Ukrainian military drone attack on a car. Six more attacks were reported in various locations.
Toward Kharkiv, Russian assault groups are advancing in Vovchansk, on the left bank of the Vovcha River, and in the Synelnykove forest.
North of Seversk, fighting is ongoing near Mine No. 6. Russian forces are advancing toward the village of Rodyns’ke and the Bakhmutka River. Russian forces have cleared much of Serebryanka and are attacking toward Dronivka.
Toward Pokrovsk, Ukrainians admit they have lost control of Kotlyne. West of Kotlyne, Russian troops have advanced to Udachne. East of Myrnohrad, fighting continues near Novoekonomichne.
On the Dnipropetrovsk front, the Russian Vostok Group of Forces is advancing westward toward Novohryhorivka, striking Ukrainian strongholds near Poltavka. Penetration of enemy defenses continues toward Verbove.
On the Zaporizhia front, there have been no significant changes in landing forces at Prymors’ke, Stepnohirs’k, and the Orechiv front; fighting continues. Ukrainian forces have carried out massive shelling of the municipal districts of Vasilievsky and Kamyansko-Dniprovskyi.
On the Kherson front, Russian forces are carrying out airstrikes and drone strikes against identified targets in Kherson. The civilian population should have been evacuated long ago; any activity is considered a legitimate target by the Dnipro Group of Forces.
Graziella Giangiulio
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