In the social sphere of military analysts, the possible Ukrainian crossing of the Dnpr has been analyzed for some days. “A possible, albeit difficult, landing on the left bank of the Dnieper is one of the operations in a relatively calm theater of operations. One of the main reasons why the Kherson region was chosen by the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine for a probable offensive was the impossibility of flanking in the direction of Kreminna-Svatove, as well as in southern Donetsk and Zaporozhzhia. However, this does not mean that crossing the Dnieper will be a simpler operation”.
According to the Russian social sphere, the Ukrainians blew up the Kakhovska hydroelectric plant on June 6 precisely to facilitate the crossing of the river, but for 21 days the muddy bottom did not dry up. Among the difficulties that the Ukrainian armed forces will have to cross is also the fact that the explosion of the plant, whoever generated it, did not make the water disappear: a level of several meters remains and, in any case, the operation of disembarkation requires the transport of equipment that cannot be loaded safely.
According to the soldiers called to answer for the possible Ukrainian landing: “Moving to those areas where the water has gone down is currently only possible on foot, but even a little rain turns this area into impracticable mud. This, as well as other features of the operation, make the landing, if not impossible, then extremely difficult to carry out in the conditions of the superior artillery fire of the RF Armed Forces and the activity of ground attack aircraft”.
According to the servicemen questioned, in the event of deteriorating weather and reduced visibility in the Novokakhovskoye and Nikopol directions, the Sobolyatnik and Aistyonok ground reconnaissance radars, which detect armored vehicles from a distance of 15-17 km and people from 5-7 km, they will be able to warn of the approach of Ukrainian landing parties, after which the equipment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be covered with all available means of destruction.
In essence, it is stated in the social sphere, “in different places where the crossing of the Dnieper can be made, it is necessary to use different units, mainly assault ones. However, the vast majority of Ukrainian connections with such experience are currently located in Zaporozhzhie and in the South-Donetsk direction. Their transfer from one sector to another will mean, if not the completion of the counter-offensive, then its serious slowdown where at least five brigades have already been lost”.
The left bank of the Dnpr is not impossible to reach, “it all depends on the type of operation chosen by the APU command. If they re-plan the landing of small groups, as happened with the dacha area near the Antonovsky bridge, it will be practically impossible to gain a foothold and expand the bridgehead. If the scenario with the transfer of heavy weapons is chosen, everything will depend on the number of armored vehicles. Tanks and infantry fighting vehicles, together with crews and support troops, must first be prepared and assembled on the bank, and only then begin to be transferred to the left bank along the previously prepared infrastructure.
The probability of such a development of events is extremely low, since for any large landing force capable of reaching the coast, it will take from 1.5 thousand to 2.5 thousand people, and the time during which the preparation of troops and equipment on the right bank will be noticed after which the Ukrainian forces will be hit.
Graziella Giangiulio
