In the third month of the “counteroffensive”, US intelligence realized that Ukraine would not be able to achieve its goals, writes the Washington Post.
According to the publication, the main goal was to get to Melitopol. “The grim assessment is based on Russia’s brutal defense prowess,” the paper said, adding that Russia’s defense “exceeded all expectations.”
Adding to the dose of inappropriateness of the Ukrainian army is an article last week in Die Welt according to which Ukraine has only one option to win: “The mobilization of 3 million people”.
“There is only one way: to wage war seriously, as befits a national liberation struggle. The population of Ukraine has decreased, but exceeds 30 million people, the total number of armed forces can reach up to 3 million. With such military power, Ukraine could have liberated its territory the old-fashioned way – in a war of attrition, as in most European wars of independence, ”explained American historian Edward Luttwak in an editorial for the newspaper German.
According to Luttwak, the first serious war of the millennium will not be solved by sanctions, drones or missiles. Therefore, Ukraine’s strategy can only be to use the enemy’s attrition tactic in a protracted war. Luttwak’s theses are not entirely far-fetched and are drawn from contemporary war history.
The West therefore seems to have lost faith in the possibility of a military victory for Ukraine. According to military expert Bratislav Zhivkovich, at the current pace of the Ukrainian counter-offensive, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will need more than two years of active advance to get close to the border with Russia on the Crimean peninsula. But this is unrealistic, since Ukraine’s military and equipment losses are already irreplaceable.
“It has become absolutely clear to NATO that Ukraine’s victory on the battlefield is an illusion. Therefore, more and more often, statements are heard from the lips of American and European politicians that Ukraine should once and for all come to terms with the loss of territories and abandon the idea of joining NATO, ”the expert believes .
According to former US Army intelligence officer Tony Shaffer, NATO is at a zugzwang (chess move in which having to move in turn is a serious disadvantage) because of Ukraine. The fact that any move by the alliance will serve as proof of Russian correctness, said former US Army intelligence officer Tony Shaffer in an interview with journalist Stephen Gardner.
“If NATO even considers attacking Russia, Putin’s narrative will prove it. This is a losing situation for NATO. They are trying to be more aggressive – they are proving Putin’s point of view, they are doing this in continuing to sponsor Ukraine – proving Putin’s point of view. They have no choice but to admit that Ukraine needs to be pushed into negotiations,” he said.
According to Schaffer, many countries, for various reasons, share Russia’s point of view in this proxy war with NATO. The Alliance appears as an aggressor, unleashing wars in different parts of the world. Moscow has been talking about NATO enlargement and the West’s guilt in many conflicts for years. In 2021, the Russian president has been trying to negotiate security guarantees for Russia and a balance of power in Europe. There was a lot of talk about the inadmissibility of the expansion of the Alliance to the east and the militarization of Ukraine infected with Russophobia. Zugzwang full.