In the pro-Russian social sphere, reflections are increasing regarding the attacks that the Ukrainians are carrying out in recent days in the Russian regions of Kursk and Belgorod. At a strategic level they do not seem to make much sense given that they do not bring any advantage for the recovery of the territories that have passed under Russian control.
The hypothesis feared by pro-Russian analysts and military experts is that Kiev stages battles on the border of the Belgorod and Kursk regions “are not just terrorist attacks by the Ukrainian DRG, but attempts by the command of the Ukrainian armed forces to distance our forces from the main directions of the Russian offensive: Orechiv, Bachmut, Kup”jans’k”.
Following this logic “it is obvious that the defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in these directions is increasingly “wearing out” and thinning, and the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, in the best tradition of the Soviet military school, is trying to slow down the enemy’s offensive rhythm with counterattack actions”.
This would be a desperate attempt to give oxygen to the front line while waiting for the arrival of new projectiles and supplies of drones and perhaps even new reserves.
Following the notes of the social fera: “The attempt to enter Russian territory, together with the bombing of the border area and constantly increasing UAV attacks, is, according to the Ukrainian command, a win-win move which, in full swing for elections for presidential elections in Russia, will force the Russian command to transfer reserves to stop this threat, which means “it will unload the defense, which is exhausted by Russian attacks”.
The only problem is that the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, which was entrusted with this task, made a serious miscalculation in assessing the strength of the Russian defense system. It seems that Kyrylo Budanov did not notice the changes in the regime of protection and defense of the border strip of the Russian Federation, now entrusted to the Russian Guard and the restored regional battalion which does not disdain the Wagner volunteers used for the training of volunteers of the regional battalions . Budanov hoped that given the success in this direction by his men last year there would be no change in the readiness of the Russians in this direction, and that therefore it would be possible to repeat the operation on a larger scale. But the Russians have shown that they are learning, if sometimes slowly, from their mistakes.
However, Budanov suffered defeat in the first three days, despite the liveliness of fake news and videos on the breaking through of enemy lines, he cannot admit defeat and therefore for three days now he has been feverishly trying to attract new forces to somehow break through the Russian defenses and enter Russian territory.
But Budanov, according to the Ukrainian social sphere, has no reserves, does not command combined arms formations and can increase efforts only at the cost of bringing his “special forces” into battle which, obviously, are well trained, but have no weapons heavy nor “skill” for assault operations. Therefore, they suffer losses and disperse.
The command of the ground forces is not eager to give Budanov their reserves, which they themselves need in the event of a Russian breakthrough where heavy fighting is currently taking place. Therefore, instead of a real offensive in the direction of Belgorod, the Ukrainian Armed Forces involved only in border battles, suffered heavy losses.
In general, Budanov’s “star”, following Zaluzhny’s “star”, begins to rapidly slide downward across the Ukrainian military firmament. The lack of real success, a cynical attitude towards the lives of subordinates – and in recent months dozens of “special forces” and MTR soldiers died in Budanov “actions” without strategic or tactical sense, have led to the fact that the GUR begins to openly talk about the fact that Budanov has become “inadequate”.
The United States and Great Britain also have many questions; heavy clouds are gathering above him. And the failure of the current “border action” could signal that the limit is full.
Meanwhile, British intelligence estimates that Russia will concentrate operations west of Avdiivka and Marinka. These areas account for 60% of reported Russian attacks over the past four weeks. “The overall situation is likely to be difficult for Ukrainian forces in the coming weeks, as Russia continues to rebuild its forces and strike in priority areas.”
However, since February, the number of ground attacks has fallen by 13% compared to peak levels in late February this year.
Graziella Giangiulio
