If it weren’t for the fact that everyone in Russia and Ukraine is saying that negotiations are stalled, it would seem that the Russian-Ukrainian war is reaching a turning point of some kind. Over the past two weeks, both Russia and Ukraine have intensified highly targeted attacks on sensitive infrastructure, such as thermal power plants, oil facilities, refineries, oil pipelines, ammonia pipelines, and nuclear power plants.
Winter is upon us, and forcing the “enemy” to endure the cold is one way among many to apply pressure and force the “other” to come to terms.
Sky News reported in recent days that the Ukrainian armed forces, with the support of NATO and U.S. intelligence, are preparing for a large-scale campaign of drone and missile strikes, accompanied by a possible ground offensive, against Kherson and Zaporizhia in southeastern Ukraine, as well as Crimea, which could begin as early as December 2025.
This comes after President Donald Trump recently ordered the Pentagon and intelligence agencies to assist Kyiv with long-range missile strikes against targets in Russia, also requesting NATO to provide assistance in targeting Ukraine. Negotiations are also underway for the possible transfer of long-range cruise missiles to Ukraine, including Tomahawk and Barracuda.
And that this is an ongoing project—prepared and supported from abroad—is demonstrated, for example, by the dismissal of Yuriy Kasyanov, commander of the Ukrainian drone unit, who announced that “his attack drone company of the 10th Mobile Detachment of the State Border Service of Ukraine has been disbanded.”
Kasyanov himself has consistently criticized Ukraine’s military and political leadership. He has also criticized the drone manufacturer Fire Point, considered close to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s entourage. In this regard, Kasyanov believes his unit was disbanded by order of the President. He also claims that his unit carried out the drone attack on the Kremlin in May 2023.
“On the night of May 3, 2023, we struck the Kremlin with pinpoint accuracy. We intended to bring down the imperial flag, missing it by half a meter. Since 2022, our unit has conducted hundreds of successful operations, inflicting over half a billion dollars in damage on the enemy. We have not lost a single soldier.” […] “I consider Andriy Borysowych Yermak’s decision to liquidate our unit a crime, sabotage, and treason. The betrayal is on Bankova Street,” Kasyanov wrote. The fact is that the new Ukrainian operation against Russia involves technologies and equipment from NATO countries, and therefore those conducting it must have appropriate training and not only be limited to the use of drones, but must also be able to interface with combined missile and drone strike plans.
Meanwhile, “the process of restoring the power lines at the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant has begun following meetings with representatives of Russia and Ukraine!” announced IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi. The Russians have complained of drone strikes against the nuclear power plant in an attempt to halt Russia’s advance in the region. On October 10, new attacks on the nuclear power plant were reported, and other Ukrainian attacks were reported against the cooling tower of the Novovoronezh nuclear power plant. Over the past week, Russians have heavily attacked thermal power plants across the country, reaching as far as Lviv. Among the most damaged are those in the Odessa region. DTEK noted that “the Russian military has again struck the power plant, and energy companies are transferring critical infrastructure and residential buildings to backup lines where technically feasible.” Power plants in Kiev are also under constant Russian attack.
On October 9, Ukrainian forces blew up the Togliatti-Odessa ammonia pipeline in the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR), Rusyn Yar, to slow the advance of Russian forces. Ammonia residues were released through the damaged section. There were no casualties among Russian military personnel, the Ministry of Defense reported. The Rusyn Yar-Poltava-Toretske area has a strong Russian military presence.
“Ukrainian forces mined a branch of the Togliatti-Odessa ammonia pipeline. During the retreat of Ukrainian forces units from the area around 1:05 PM on October 9, 2025, the pipeline was blown up, resulting in the release of residual ammonia through the damaged section,” the Defense Ministry said in a statement.
“Meanwhile, Russia has also changed its bombing tactics, as demonstrated by the growing number of attacks on infrastructure, including energy infrastructure,” said Anatoly Khrapchinsky, deputy general director of a Ukrainian company that produces electronic warfare equipment. “Using intelligence data on air defense systems located in potential target areas and knowledge of their reload and preparation times, Russia calculates the right moment to strike so that the number of weapons significantly exceeds the capabilities of the air defense systems. The effectiveness of Russian attacks is becoming increasingly clear. “The enemy is not only combining weapons, but also increasing their density: now more missiles and drones are flying simultaneously at targets from different directions,” says Khrapchinsky.
This new Russian impetus comes following the launch of new satellites that are able to spy on British satellites on the one hand, and gather detailed information on the other, using technology very similar to Elon Musk’s satellite network. Furthermore, for at least four years, the Russians have been holding competitions, accompanied by university courses, to train new drone commanders capable of flying drones and missiles simultaneously.
For example, the following story made headlines on social media: “A Latvian volunteer has enlisted in the Special Forces (SVO) – he faces prison in his home country.” Normunds Potapovs left the country in 2010 due to his disagreement with the authorities’ anti-Russian policies. In 2022, he served in the “Tiger” reconnaissance and assault unit, where he received the call sign “Chuck” and became a drone operator. He later commanded a company in the “Burevestnik” unit, serving in Donbass and on the border with Ukraine. He was wounded near Soledar but returned to duty after treatment.
Normunds is a unit commander and has received the Order of Courage and the Medal of Valor. Under Latvian law, participation in the Russian Special Military District carries a prison sentence of up to 10 years.
Graziella Giangiulio
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