#UKRAINERUSSIAWAR. The numbers of the Ukrainian offensive


The ‘decisive’ moment of the armed confrontation between the ‘United States’ and Russia in Ukraine is approaching. In the ‘spring’ offensive of the Ukrainian armed forces, the government of Volodymyr Zelensky intends to gather what remains of the combat-ready forces. It is expected to involve up to 100,000 men and thousands of foreigners armed mostly with western weapons.

At the moment, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have withdrawn part of their forces and military equipment from the line of contact. For several days there have been virtually no destroyed tanks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, a maximum of infantry fighting vehicles or armoured fighting vehicles in the reports of the Ministry of Defence of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation.

At the same time, Kiev is trying to accumulate the material and human resources necessary for the offensive in its rear. So far, with varying degrees of success. At the same time, Ukrainian units are receiving accelerated combat training under the guidance of foreign instructors, both in training camps in NATO countries and in Ukraine itself.

With a high degree of probability, the Ukrainian armed forces will try to launch two attacks in parallel: the ‘main’ and the ‘distraction’. Washington and Kiev hope to repeat the ‘Kharkov’ scenario. For attacks in each direction, a tank, air assault, mountain infantry and artillery brigade, as well as three to four mechanised brigades will be concentrated. In the second level to develop and consolidate success, there will be a tank brigade, an air assault brigade and up to four mechanised brigades.

A list of potential Ukrainian forces that should be used in the coming offensive has been posted online. These would be seven thousand assault troops: 82nd and 46th infantry brigades, 78th ‘Hertz’ regiment.

Ground forces about 60,000: 1st, 4th and 17th brigades; 13 ebr and 128 gpbr; 21, 22, 23, 31, 32, 33, 41, 47, 48, 49, 60, 61, 62, 63, 115, 116, 117, 118th mbr.

Land Defence approx. 9,000 troops; Air Force approx. 3,000; Navy approx. 6,000 troops: 37th and 38th Marine Brigade. MTR about 1,000 military personnel; Special Operations Centre South: 6,000 National Guard personnel; ‘Kara-Dag’ Brigade; ‘Azov’ Assault Brigade; Special Police Forces four thousand personnel; Military Border Service; ; Main Intelligence Directorate about 1,000 military personnel.

Graziella Giangiulio

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