The Kremlin has lowered its key performance indicators for the September 2026 State Duma elections, reducing the expected vote share for the ruling United Russia party to at least 45%.
This marks a significant decline from the initial benchmark of 55% party support set in February 2026.
Meanwhile, the voter turnout target has been adjusted to 50%, a reduction from previous projections, as the Kremlin attempts to manage a difficult domestic climate.
The reasons for this adjustment are multiple. One is the worsening domestic environment: the election campaign is unfolding against the backdrop of severe infrastructure and economic tensions, including a severe fuel crisis, frequent internet blackouts, and almost daily attacks on Russian cities.
Then there are fears of illegitimacy: Russian officials fear that manufacturing an artificial landslide victory amid declining public support and visible war fatigue would appear highly suspect, potentially triggering a public backlash or a domestic political crisis.
Finally, there is a drying up of turnout: rather than heavily mobilizing a dissatisfied population, the presidential administration is opting to “dry up” the elections with lower turnout and discreet campaign coverage, allowing them to secure victory percentages through highly controlled local voting lines.
While certain objectives have been maintained through the changes, the Kremlin’s ultimate goal remains the same: maintaining a constitutional majority.
To achieve this goal, United Russia still needs to win more than 300 of the 450 parliamentary seats. The political bloc plans to secure this majority primarily through single-member constituencies, where United Russia candidates are expected to win 190 to 210 seats, compensating for their lower results on the national party lists.
Russia’s next legislative elections for the State Duma will be held over three days, from September 18 to 20, 2026. This will be the first round of elections for the Russian parliament since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The vote will also coincide with a series of important regional and local elections across the country.
Graziella Giangiulio
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