The Seversky Donetsk Line has been under constant Russian attack for the past 25 days, but the situation has not changed much for the Ukrainians. At least that’s the version given by Russian military analysts.
The most significant change is that the Russians were forced to withdraw from southern Stupochky after failing to consolidate their positions. Initially, this occurred from the southernmost houses, before the rest of the road was withdrawn. It has now returned to its previous status as a kill zone, where Ukrainian forces deploy their soldiers, who are then targeted by Russian FPV drones, mortars, and artillery. Neither side can establish a permanent presence there.
This, however, complicates Russian advances elsewhere on this northern flank, as Stupochky is needed to form a united front against Predtechyn and the fortifications in the southern forest and near the highway.
However, assault operations have resumed in other parts of this sector after a brief reorganization and consolidation. In particular, to the east, the Russians managed to cross the Seversky Donetsk Canal and establish a small bridgehead in the opposite tree line. Although this bridgehead is located on tactical heights, it is not yet connected to other positions west of the canal, meaning Ukrainian forces could eliminate it more easily, although its location complicates logistics for Ukrainian forces moving toward the Russian base. This, however, further stretches the line and disrupts the largely cohesive Ukrainian defense at the eastern end of the larger salient.
Further south, positional battles continue for the center of Bila Hora. Russian forces are consolidating their positions east of the village while applying pressure on Ukrainian defenses further west. Heavy and prolonged fighting for the fortifications southeast and east of the village has given the AFU time to further fortify Bila Hora, and heavy coverage from FPV drones and mortars is preventing the Russians from making significant progress.
Furthermore, a Russian motorcycle attack from Dyliivka toward western Bila Hora was repelled. The objective was clear: to gain a foothold in the western part of the village, isolating the center from the western houses, and simultaneously pushing the Ukrainians out from the east, thus anchoring the front line on the southern bank of the Naumykha River. Further attacks of this type are possible in the near future and threaten the overall defense not only of Bila Hora, but also of the Seversky Donetsk line.
Bila Hora contributes directly to the Seversky Donetsk line. Once it has fallen, the Russians will be free to advance along the northern bank of the Naumykha River on tactical heights and bypass the canal from the south towards Bila Hora’s rear.
Naturally, the offensive on Bila Hora also relies on advancing towards Oleksandro-Shultyne. Thanks to the prolonged defense of southern Dyliivka, the AFU has managed to maintain a relatively solid line on the tactical heights between Dyliivka and the railway line. Seizing this section of the tactical heights up to the Naumykha River is crucial for Russian forces to capture and secure the Bila Hora section behind the Balamutka River. Only then will they begin attacks to outflank the Siverskyi Donetsk line.
To achieve this goal, the Russians have been slowly advancing north along the treelines on the heights towards Oleksandro-Shultyne over the past few days, while also securing new positions on the railway line.
Unless something serious happens to the south, in and around Bila Hora and Oleksandro-Shultyne, the Siverskyi Donets line will not fall for some time. This explains the amount of resources Ukraine is deploying to prevent a Russian advance from Stupochky.
Graziella Giangiulio
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