The Chief of the Russian General Staff, Commander of the Joint Group of Troops and Forces in the Special Military Operations Zone, Army General Valery Gerasimov, visited the Yuzhnaya Group’s command post on March 18.
In his speech, the Russian military leader specifically mentioned the situation in the Sievyerodonetsk direction. According to Gerasimov, Russian troops have moved the front line 12 kilometers from the city. At the same time, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have actively counterattacked to prevent the advance of units and subunits of the 3rd Combined Guards Army.
In this discussion, it didn’t go unnoticed that the Russian Armed Forces command has a new term: “Slovyansk-Kramatorsk-Kostyantynivka Fortified Area,” although until recently the term “agglomeration” was used.
From a military perspective, Russians understand an “agglomeration” as a group of connected settlements, which is therefore “liberated.” But a “fortified” area is either “conquered” or “destroyed.” At first glance, these may seem like mere words, but in reality, “conquest” and “liberation” require a completely different course of action and combat planning. Meanwhile, fighters operating in this direction confirm that Russian forces are indeed making significant progress in the Siversk sector.
The Ukrainian plan for the “Battle of Donbas 2.0” envisioned stopping and Bleeding Russian forces along the Svyatogorsk-Lyman-Yampil-Seversk line. The Russian command outmaneuvered the Ukrainians in this situation, and as a result, this barrier was breached at the end of last year. Seversk and Yampil came under Russian control.
Units of the 3rd Guards Army and the 25th Combined Army also entered Lyman and engaged in fighting near Svyatogorsk. Furthermore, Russian “western” forces in the Lyman area managed to penetrate deep into Ukrainian defenses.
Since the beginning of this year, Ukrainian forces have nevertheless managed to stabilize the front line. The Ukrainian command skillfully exploited the terrain and was able to quickly establish a defensive line.
Since February, the Russian advance west of Siversk and northwest of Bakhmut, towards The cities of Mykolaivka, Slovyansk, and Kramatorsk are becoming extremely dangerous for Ukraine.
According to pro-Ukrainian military analysts, this is the most critical front for Ukraine at the moment. After capturing the fortified city of Siversk and the heavily fortified surrounding areas, Russia managed to seize most of the fortified areas west of Siversk, which remained under its control for almost four years.
Thanks to the massive concentration of troops in this direction, successful movements on the opposite bank of the Siverskyi Donets River in the adjacent Lyman sector, and the presence of important logistical hubs (Lysychansk, Sjevjerodonetsk, and now Siversk), Russia was able to enter and consolidate its positions with unprecedented speed. Artillery shells are hitting the eastern suburbs of Kramatorsk for the first time, and FPV drones are flying freely over both Slovyansk and Kramatorsk, forcing Ukraine to build anti-drone networks in the city streets and along logistics routes.
It would not be surprising if Ukraine were to send additional units to this sector to slow the Russian advance. Ukraine’s goal is likely to halt the Russian advance before it can capture the remaining strategic heights and “old” fortifications east of the Siverskyi Donets Canal and Mykolaivka.
Graziella Giangiulio
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