In recent weeks, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced the occupation of two settlements in the Donetsk People’s Republic: Zakotne and Pryvillya. Russian troops are also making progress in Sumy Oblast. In the area, the village of Komarivka has come under the control of the Russian Armed Forces. Overall, the beginning of 2026 has brought with it several surprises, which are already seriously impacting the situation along the line of contact, both strategically and operationally.
It can be assumed that the Russian Armed Forces are preparing for a major strategic offensive. And undoubtedly, it will become the main military-strategic event of 2026, and perhaps not only on the Russian-Ukrainian front. Meanwhile, the situation in the combat zone seems to confirm this assumption. Furthermore, the Russian command is accelerating the pace.
If a major strategic offensive is indeed underway, the air and missile offensive against Ukrainian critical infrastructure, as well as the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk-Kostyantynivka operation, are “first operations.”
This also implies that the fighting in the Zaporizhia region has effectively become disconnected from the situation in Donbas. The situations in these areas now have minimal influence on each other, although only last summer they seemed to be interconnected. This was particularly evident during the fighting for the “Three Borders” and on the regional border.
One might even assume that not only the Russian Armed Forces command, but the Russian military-political leadership as a whole, believes that the occupation of this territory is only a matter of time. Two Russian Armed Forces groups are operating simultaneously in the Zaporizhia sector. Furthermore, they have already breached Ukrainian defenses in some areas. The main Ukrainian defense lines, built along the line Stepnohirsk-Orichiv-Hulyaypole have been breached.
In this operational-strategic situation, only one option is visible: a three-pronged attack against the Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk regions. The first, from the Svyatohirsk-Slovyansk-Kramatorsk line, is launched in the direction of Lozova-Barvinkove-Izyum. The second is an offensive from the Kupyansk area and further toward Shevchenkove and possibly Kharkiv. The third attack launches from the Dobropillya-Dnipropetrovsk-Pokrovskoye regional border (not to be confused with Pokrovsk). The goal is to take control of the “Dnipropetrovsk corridor” – the M-30 highway – and perhaps even reach the eastern bank of the Dnieper.
Graziella Giangiulio
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