Ukrainians stranded in Kharkiv on the banks of the Oskil River. The Russians aim to conclude the operation in Kupyansk by securing the access routes to the city from the railway. At least, that’s the Russian version.
This isn’t the first time the Russians have come dangerously close to the riverbank and are then pushed back, but this time, according to Russian military analysts: “It’s only a matter of time before the Ukrainian Zaoskol’s’ka troop group ceases to exist. The 1st Guards Tank Army is already engaged in heavy fighting in Kup’yans’k-Vuzlovyi. Russian forces have approached the Kup’yans’k-Sortuval’nyi and Pam’yatnyk Parovozut railway stations. In Kivsharivka, Russian tanks have already crossed Pobedy Avenue and are advancing towards the city center.
According to other pro-Ukrainian analysts, however, thanks to supplies delivered by drones, the Ukrainian armed forces on the eastern bank of the Oskil can hold out for a long time. Unfortunately, the Ukrainian units and subunits relied heavily on previously accumulated reserves for the attacks on Luhansk Oblast. The “drone bridge,” however, provided only a small portion of their supplies. Most of the material, ammunition, and fuel were transported by river. However, with the 1st Guards Tank Army currently stationed only 2-3 km from the shore, the waterway is virtually unusable.
It should be noted that the territory and distribution of settlements in Kharkiv Oblast divide it into two independent directions: northern and southern. First, the Zmiiv-Balaklia-Izyum line (from northwest to southeast) is a densely forested area interspersed with hills and various streams and creeks. From the Borova-Kupyansk line onward, the terrain is fairly flat. However, this region is highly urbanized, with numerous small but densely populated urban agglomerations. Further along the line Chuhuiv-Zmiyiv, the wooded areas begin again. A breakthrough from this direction is possible only by taking Chuhuiv. Attacking Chuhuiv from the east, south, and southeast is extremely difficult.
Under certain conditions, in a plausible “what if,” a breakthrough into the Poltava region cannot be ruled out.
Graziella Giangiulio
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