By announcing on February 12 his invitation to his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin for direct peace talks, US President Donald Trump has shaken up the diplomatic plans of Kiev and its European allies. The rapidly developing situation has already mobilized all Western diplomats responsible for security. Although Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had already planned to visit Washington next week, he is now preparing to make the trip as soon as possible if the White House agrees.
There seems to be some confusion within the Trump administration as well. White House special envoy for Ukraine Keith Kellogg’s negotiators were in Kiev during the Trump-Putin talks, according to several sources, seemed receptive to the idea of involving Ukraine in direct talks. But this attitude seems to have waned with Trump’s announcement that he would resolve the issue quickly and on his own.
The comments came shortly before Zelensky met with US Vice President J.D. Vance at the Munich Security Conference, a meeting that was initially seen as preparation for Zelensky’s trip to Washington. It remains crucial that Kiev has a seat at the negotiating table. Ukrainian and European diplomats say they are more confident than ever that in a Trump/Putin face-off, Putin will prevail over the American negotiator, for whom the Ukrainian issue is only of secondary importance.
Trump’s statement has thrown a spanner in the works of the diplomatic machinery that Kiev has created in recent days to try to establish at least some control over the situation. A Ukrainian delegation visited Washington last week to take the temperature of the Senate, where old-school Republicans like Lindsey Graham have been working hard to soften Trump’s bipartisan ambitions. At the same time, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sibiga visited Paris on February 12. Sibiga was accompanied on his diplomatic tour by Zelensky’s chief strategist, Andriy Yermak. Ahead of the expected announcement of the talks, Yermak stepped up his calls on Tuesday, including to German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s security sherpa, Jens Plötner, and an equally senior adviser to French President Emmanuel Macron, Emmanuel Bonn. These calls came several days after Yermak spoke to British national security adviser Jonathan Powell. But all of those efforts in light of Trump’s call to Putin are now in vain. At the same time, diplomats from the European Union, Britain and France are working separately to secure a place in the promising US-Russia talks, with little sign of success so far.
The deal that the Trump administration is pushing with the Ukrainians, namely the continuation of military aid in exchange for access to the country’s lithium, coal and rare mineral resources, has also become obsolete, Zelensky has not signed it, Vance himself said. An analysis of available satellite imagery also suggests that at the current rate of Russian military advance, two of Ukraine’s most valuable mineral assets could fall into Russian hands within the next two months, unless additional military support arrives in Kiev. These are the coal mines around Pokrovs’k, from where Ukrainian workers have already been evacuated, and the lithium deposit that bears the name of the city Shevchenko. This possibility will not help either Kiev or Washington.
The head of the DPR Denis Pushilin clarified the point about the ownership of Ukrainian minerals on the Soloviev Live TV channel: “The main deposits of lithium and titanium in Donbass are under Russian control.”
On the banks if approximate: Russian position: Neutrality of Ukraine, de facto recognition as Russian territory of the territories occupied at the time of the ceasefire, prevention of a small low-intensity war on the demarcation line after the truce, restoration of diplomatic relations with Kiev, lifting of most sanctions, including the thawing of Russian assets.
Ukrainian position: retention of the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions, symbolic exchange of territory in the Kursk region for territory already occupied by Russian troops, transfer of Russian assets to Kiev as “indemnity” and “face saving”, accession to the EU, introduction of Western peacekeepers into the country and creation of bases, guarantees to Zelensky and his entourage.
US position: ceasefire, reduction of funding to Kiev, de facto recognition of part of Russia’s new borders, concessions by Russia on some important points for the United States of Trump’s foreign policy agenda (Iran, China, Middle East), possibility of lifting some sanctions.
European Union position: Continued support for Kiev and increased pressure of sanctions on Russia with the move to military action, both on land and at sea.
Peace is therefore far from coming.
Graziella Giangiulio
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