Rumours are beginning to circulate in intellectual circles close to Russia that Moscow will declare war on Kiev. This is inferred from the actions Putin has been taking since July and which have now come to the signing of the partial mobilisation.
In July 2022, Putin appointed Russians or naturalised Russian citizens as governors of the Kherson and Crimea regions. Not only that, but also in July the law on partial mobilisation ended up on the table of the State Duma in the first reading. Which in fact changes the Russian Code of Criminal Procedure to ‘war economy’.
On 20 September, the Russian stock exchange closed down 8% and trading was suspended. The worst figure since 24 February, the day the ‘Special Operation’ began. Also on 20 September in second and third reading, the Duma approves the bill, which becomes law on the 21st after it has been approved by the Federal Council and President Vladimir Putin.
Statements first by Putin and then by his close associates suggest that the door to dialogue is barred for now. Putting an end to the special operation and thus sanctioning its end will be the referenda to be held from 23 to 27 September in the Donestk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions. These, contrary to what the Italian media said, will not become autonomous regions, Ukraine does not recognise the referendum, but will become Russian territory, they will be annexed. From then on, as explained by the deputy chairman of the Federation Council Konstantin Kosachev: ‘The attack on the territories liberated after the referendum will be considered an attack on Russia’.
On the same wavelength were Leonid Slutsky’s statements: ‘After the annexation of the Donbass to the Russian Federation, there can be no talk of negotiations with Ukraine’.
If the concept is still unclear, let us quote the words of the deputy chairman of the defence committee, Kartapolov, on partial mobilisation: ‘To protect the Donbass, those with combat experience will be mobilised; those who have served in the armed forces of the Russian Federation, only those whose speciality is now necessary for the conduct of hostilities. All summoned citizens will be trained. The essence is that the territories taken from the Ukrainian borders once annexed are not to be lost and therefore must be defended’.
During a recent interview, the Defence Minister of the Russian Federation, Sergei Shoigu said: ‘Within the framework of the special military operation, a large and difficult combat operation is underway. All types and branches of the Russian armed forces, including the nuclear triad, are fulfilling the task set by the president. Russia is at war not so much with the Ukrainian army as with the West as a whole. The entire NATO satellite constellation is working against the Russian Federation in Ukraine. Weapons are supplied to Ukraine in large quantities, but Russia finds ways to fight them. The Western command is based in Kiev and directs the military operation in Ukraine; Just over a thousand foreign mercenaries are fighting on Kiev’s side. More than 70 military satellites and 200 civilians from the West are working to scout the location of Russian military groups. More than 90% of those wounded during the special operation have returned to duty. The losses of the Russian Federation amounted to 5,937 people who died. The losses of the Ukrainian armed forces amounted to over 100,000 killed and wounded’.
To sum up, if you want to put it this way, if after the annexation of the Ukrainian territories a single bullet arrives in that territory it will be declared an attack on Russia, which will feel obliged to respond and this includes a declaration of war. If the declaration of war on Ukraine arrives, according to an agreement a few months ago, Poland must intervene in support of Ukraine. And after that? Will Article 5 of the NATO treaties be invoked?