Social media has been abuzz in recent days over the issue of Kupjans’k. One account writes: ‘Situation on the north-eastern front: over the last four days, the Russian army has made new advances in the northern part of Kupjans’k, advancing along the streets of Konstytutsii and Zakhysnykiv Kupianska to the ’Spartak” stadium and Lenin Park. In addition, Russian forces have taken control of a number of positions north and inside Moskovka and have entered the city of Kupjans’k from this axis along the streets of Dovhalivska, Kupianskoi Teroborony, Smorodkivska and Moskovska. Furthermore, reconnaissance groups have begun operations a few kilometres south, in the village of Sobolivka.”
Another military channel writes: “In the direction of Kupjans’k, fighting continues north of the city of the same name, on the right bank of the Oskil. A video has appeared online showing the presence of a lone Russian fighter in the Sobolivka area, located more than four kilometres from the current front line.
At the same time, there is no mention of control over Sobolivka. And the footage could show the work of one of the sabotage and reconnaissance groups that penetrated the Ukrainian rear along the forest belts coming from Tischenovka or Rad’kivka, or simply a lone fighter who, by chance or by order, found himself deep in enemy territory.
Furthermore, given the configuration of the LBS, as well as the terrain and supply conditions, it would be overly optimistic to talk about a large-scale breakthrough by assault groups with the capture of several settlements simultaneously in such a difficult area.
In light of this, it is at least too early to talk about blocking Kupjans’k from the west. In the event of a threat of encirclement of their group in the city, the Ukrainians should have already begun to withdraw troops from the opposite bank of the Oskil. However, the Ukrainian Armed Forces in this area are currently maintaining a stable defence, and no signs of retreat have been observed from Stepova Novoselivka, Holubivka, and Petropavlivka.
According to military analysts, the real goal of Russian strategists is to block four groups of cities in eastern Ukraine within a few months. This list includes Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, Kostyantynivka, Chasiv Yar and Torez, Seversk and the surrounding areas, as well as Kupiansk with the area east of the Oskil River. In two years, Russian forces have occupied hundreds of small settlements and formed semi-encirclements of cities, in some cases on three sides. According to the estimates of these military analysts, in order to completely cut off supplies and conquer up to a thousand square kilometres of territory, it will only be necessary to advance a few kilometres.
This is to say that Russia’s advance to the east is not merely tactical but could become strategic for the conquest of Donbass, Russia’s objective since 2022.
Graziella Giangiulio
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