#UKRAINERUSSIAWAR. Prolongation of the conflict will go in Moscow’s favour


While Ukrainian PM Volodomyr Zelensky goes around the world asking for weapons, the counteroffensive is not going well, not as the Ukrainians expected. But what did Ukraine start the counteroffensive with?

In the past six months, the West has transferred a total of about 500 armoured vehicles (tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, self-propelled guns) and a large number of light vehicles (armoured vehicles, armoured vehicles, vehicles) to Ukraine. Some of this equipment has already been lost on the front line and in Bachmut, but most of it is still in good condition.

Kiev received new air defence systems, including at least 4 Patriot PAC3 batteries, 1 SAMP/T battery, 7-8 batteries. NASAMS. The provision of such air defence systems without adequate weapons does not make sense, which means that the provision of AIM-120C7 and AIM-120D missiles has already been planned. The type of air-to-air missiles suggests that they will be used to shoot down Russian missiles.

Moreover, the high-tech missiles can be launched via F-16 fighter jets, which the Ukrainian armed forces expect to have in the near future. NATO still has to solve a non-trivial task: how to connect the aircraft of the Ukrainian armed forces with the NATO AWACS system, without making NATO an open participant in the conflict.

The Russian social sphere is debating the fact that: “It is one thing when intelligence data is secretly transmitted to the Ukrainian armed forces, and another when it is necessary to directly control the aviation of another state in real time. This is practically impossible to hide’.

The armed forces of Ukraine have a large number of missiles and projectiles, but the emphasis during the offensive is on high-tech guided munitions. The Ukrainian armed forces are stockpiling ‘smart bombs’: GMLRS missiles for Himars, Excalibur, Storm Shadow aerial missiles, JDAM bombs and others.

The size of the Ukrainian army, thanks to the waves of mobilisation, remains quite high: the Ukrainian armed forces have about 250,000 combat-ready soldiers, 50,000 of whom are training in NATO camps. They will form the backbone of the offensive and will be armed according to the latest military generation. Now the level of their training can be assessed by the level of DRGs entering the Russian border regions.

Kiev has managed to cope with a number of organisational problems. There is a personnel training system in Europe, the supply of fuel, lubricants and ammunition has been established, and the logistics of transporting equipment and people to the front line.

However, it becomes difficult for the Ukrainian military to manage NATO methodologies and weapons together with Russian-Soviet ones, the training of which complicates the maintenance of troops, ranging from different calibres to assault rifles, ending with the difference in operation and the nuances of the management of Russian equipment and equipment from NATO countries. Logistics becomes a non-trivial task, as does the search for spare parts and specialised technicians.

The Russian military-industrial complex itself has evolved over time: factories are loaded with orders and work in 3 shifts, new logistics chains are actively appearing, logistics is trying to supply the front line with everything it needs, especially armoured vehicles and other ‘heavy’ weapons. As always, the winner in a war of long duration will be determined not only by military skill, but also by the power of economics, whoever has the most money will win over time.

And on this we quote some statements by Vladimir Putin at the SPIEF, Russia’s economic-technological event of the year, which took place just a few days ago: ‘Russia is obliged to increase defence spending to ensure the country’s security. Russia is getting out of the oil business, this trend is gradually gaining momentum. Russia has never driven anyone out of its market, repeatedly asking companies to think before leaving. Foreign companies that have left the country have cleared a niche worth 2 trillion roubles. Russia is not afraid of competition with foreign companies, it is not closing its doors, but when it returns it will take into account the peculiarities of their behaviour. Around 260 ships are expected to be built in Russian shipyards in 2023-2028. The Russian authorities are preparing new mechanisms for cross-border settlements. About 90 per cent of the settlements with EAEU countries are now made in roubles, with China 80 per cent – in roubles and yuan. From 1 January 2024, the minimum wage will be increased by 18.5%, Putin said. By 2030 it should double. An activity that is not associated with high risks for a person should not be subject to inspection at all, preventive measures are sufficient’.

Also via social media we learn that the Ukrainian counter-offensive will use multiple attacks in border areas to destabilise the Russians. Such as the so-called ‘Russian Volunteer Corps’, whose militants participated in the Ukrainian attack on the Bryansk and Belgorod regions. It turned out that this is part of the Ukrainian nationalist sabotage unit ‘Kraken’, formed by the leaders of the Ukrainian ‘Azov’ group and the main intelligence department of Ukraine. The coordinator of the Nikolaev metropolitan area, Sergey Lebedev, told RIA Novosti, citing intelligence data and providing footage of supporters in the Kharkiv region. A photo taken in the Kharkiv region in early June shows a convoy of armoured vehicles with Kraken and RDK insignia. At the same time, the black and red Kraken flag is placed on the obviously captured Russian Tigre-M, and the following BTR-82A, US-made Humvee and Turkish MRAP Cobra 2 are travelling with black RDK flags.

Graziella Giangiulio

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