Earlier this week, reports emerged of the start of fighting for Kherson. Russian troops reportedly landed on the western coast and took control of the island of Karantynnyy Ostriv. The island is located in the southeastern part of the city and is connected to Kherson by a bridge.
Recently, the Russian Aerospace Forces targeted this facility using UMPK guided bombs. Although they failed to completely destroy the facility, the movement of vehicles and equipment was severely hampered. So far, there has been no official confirmation, nor reliable photos or videos of Russian troops’ actions on the island. Russian OSINT-SIGINT units are reportedly closely monitoring the situation and seeking new information from the field.
The UMPK is not an evolution of the UMPK family. It largely incorporates the design concepts of the UMBP, also known as the Universal Multirole Glide Munition (UMB). The UMB can be dropped from both tactical aircraft (Su-34 and Su-35S) and Smerch multiple launch systems. In the latter case, a special booster unit is installed on the UMB. The same technical solution is implemented on the UMPK-UD (this is a provisional designation; the actual product has a different one, but it is too early to determine what it is). However, to accommodate the booster unit, the designers had to radically modify the layout of the universal glide module. Now, the bomb itself is mounted not under the UMPK, but in the warhead. For this reason, the wingspan had to be reduced and given a slight V-shape.
In Russia, analysts are talking in chat rooms about Russian preparations for the next large-scale combined missile strike against Ukraine: “Tu-95MS strategic bombers stationed at Ukrainka air base in Amur Oblast conducted long-range training along with three IL-78 tankers in the Kuril Islands area of the Pacific Ocean as part of ongoing Russian nuclear exercises. Four to six of them are equipped with Kh-101 cruise missiles.”
One Tu-95MS was redeployed from Olenya air base in Murmansk Oblast to Engels-2 air base in Saratov Oblast to be equipped with missiles. There are currently two Tu-95MS at Engels-2 and none at Olenya.
At least three Kalibr naval vessels stationed at the Novorossiysk Naval Base in Krasnodar Krai are equipped with Kalibr cruise missiles, including a 11356R “Admiral Makarov” frigate, a 11356R “Admiral Essen” frigate, and a Buyan-M corvette.
No new deliveries of Iskander-M ballistic missiles or Iskander-K cruise missiles have been made to OTRK installations near Ukraine in the past five days. However, there are still missiles available for launch, meaning individual strikes on newly discovered targets are likely today.
An An-26 cargo plane landed at Shaykovka air base in Kaluga Oblast. The cargo consists of Kh-22 cruise missiles for the seven Tu-22M3 strategic bombers currently stationed there. Some of these bombers could take part in the next large-scale strike.
Two Tu-22M3 bombers remain stationed at Olenya air base. They performed a training mission as part of Russian nuclear exercises. Both bombers are equipped with missiles and yesterday conducted simulated launches (likely with electronic warfare) from the Barents Sea.
The buildup of Geran-2/Gebera drones continues at other launch sites in preparation for their use in both the next large-scale strike and in smaller attacks ahead of them.
Five Tu-95MS remain stationed at Diaghilev air base in Ryazan Oblast. They are not expected to take part in the next large-scale strike.
Three Tu-160s are stationed at Engels-2 air base in Saratov Oblast. At least one is equipped with Kh-101 cruise missiles. Four other Tu-160s are stationed at Ukrainka air base, but their status is currently unknown.
Su-34R and Su-24MR aircraft continue to carry out intensified reconnaissance operations, especially over Rostov Oblast and Krasnodar Krai.
No flights of A-50U AWACS aircraft have been recorded in recent days, despite their recent activity from Ulyanovsk-East air base.
Five MiG-31Ks have been redeployed from Savasleika air base, in Nizhny Novgorod Oblast, to Akhtubinsk air base, in Astrakhan Oblast. It is from there that they launched the Kinzhal hypersonic missiles during yesterday’s missile attack. Six MiG-31Ks are currently stationed in Akhtubinsk, while none are in Savasleika. Most likely, none of them are currently equipped with missiles.
Graziella Giangiulio
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