Something in the roadmap of the so-called Russian special operation is changing. After several months of hints of agreements and negotiations, it now appears that neither side is willing to engage in dialogue. Meanwhile, Moscow is changing tactics, and some are talking about a new operation.
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to the auxiliary command of the Joint Forces Group on July 4, 2026, had a new impact on the content of official information regarding the objectives and results of mass and group attacks against targets in Ukraine.
Contrary to previous practice, which almost completely excluded specific details of planned targets, limiting itself to general definitions—military-industrial complexes, airports, energy and oil complexes, etc.—and the usual statement that “all targets were hit and the intended targets achieved,” the Russian Defense Ministry press service has begun to disclose details. Official Russian communication has changed to propaganda.
This allows Russia’s rival, competing, or enemy agencies to assess the actual operational effectiveness of Russian airstrikes, but also to analyze ongoing changes in combat tactics and even, to a certain extent, predict the operational and strategic intentions of the Russian armed forces.
The airstrikes conducted in the first week of July on Kyiv highlighted a series of new trends in combat tactics and techniques. Since they followed Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s official announcement of the “introduction of 40-day long-range sanctions against Russia,” the campaign launched by the Russian armed forces has been labeled “in response to Zelensky’s statements.”
In 2023, the primary Russian threat was massive missile strikes, with dozens of cruise and ballistic missiles potentially launched at night on the city. In 2025, the air campaign entered a new phase. During this period, the number of attack drones skyrocketed, becoming the primary means of destruction. While in previous years the number of missile and drone strikes was comparable, in 2025 the number of hits recorded by drones exceeded that of missiles several times over.
July 2025 marked yet another turning point: from then on, massive drone strikes were no longer the exception, but became an almost constant practice.
And since the beginning of 2026, a further shift has been observed. While in 2025, drones were the primary tool of Russian attacks, in the first half of 2026, the Russian armed forces dramatically increased the use of ballistic missiles. In just six months, Kiev suffered almost as many missile strikes as it did in all of 2025.
Russian forces have adopted a combined strike tactic, a new operational model. At night, the city is bombarded by waves of drones, forcing air defenses to constantly react to new threats. Later in the morning, or in parallel, ballistic and cruise missile strikes are launched. The goal is simple: to overload the air defense system as much as possible and increase the probability that individual missiles will hit their target.
The combination of massive drone strikes and intense ballistic missile launches has become the key feature of Moscow’s campaign against Kyiv in 2026. This pattern has become particularly evident in 2025-2026, when the number of large-scale Russian attacks has increased.
Graziella Giangiulio
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