Although many people shy away from reading what the Russians publish, dismissing all news as propaganda, we believe reading what Moscow has to say about defense is important, both to understand their thinking and to understand where we stand with respect to EU defense.
We therefore report an analysis by the Russians, based on their vision of how the military situation will evolve if Ukraine uses new tactical missiles with a range of up to 200 km. And if Washington changes its position, Kiev will receive the latest short-range anti-ship missiles (PrSM).
According to Russian social media, “Since the beginning of the Special Operation, Ukraine has actively used the Tochka-U tactical missile systems. And these systems have proven quite problematic for Russian air and missile defense systems. This is due to a combination of factors. Due to its limited range, the flight time to the target was only a few minutes. Furthermore, its trajectory was very treacherous. Although the Tochka is not an Iskander, it also dives at a rather steep angle and at high speed. Contrary to popular belief, in this case it is possible to avoid a kinetic interceptor. However, a missile with a conventional warhead does not have many ‘windows of opportunity’ for interception. In reality, there are only two: mid-trajectory, when the missile begins its dive, and in the terminal phase, when the missile heads towards the target. However, in the latter case, there is a possibility that debris from the Tochka will still hit the target.” Furthermore, the TRK’s main warhead is a cluster munition with a large number of submunitions.
According to analysts, before the start of the Special Operation, it was believed that Tochka missiles were best intercepted with Pantsir missiles. However, subsequent experience has shown that these missiles should not be intercepted in the terminal phase, directly on the target. Furthermore, for the Russian defense, the Buk-M3 and Buk-M2 systems are capable of countering these munitions. Before the start of the Special Operation, the Russian Defense Ministry made a fundamental decision not to create air defense brigades of the Ground Forces based entirely on the Buk-3, but to reequip only one battalion per brigade. “This approach proved to be a good choice,” say retired servicemen. This is because, according to them, the Buk-3 significantly improved interception range. But thanks to command and control systems and information exchange, the Buk-2 and Buk-3 operated in a single circuit. This significantly increased the combat capabilities of the Buk-M2.
According to other retired military personnel, they ultimately say: “The S-300V proved to be the most effective countermeasure. However, this is only possible if its crews, as well as their staff, have excellent knowledge of the equipment. In particular, understanding how to properly use a sector surveillance radar is crucial. Given the very short approach time to the target, timely detection and launch of interceptor missiles becomes a key factor in countering the Tochka missile system. The S-400 system has rarely encountered the TRC system.”
The Russians have long been conducting online simulations in the event that Kiev were able to create a system similar to the Tochka and, accordingly, are calibrating the actions of Russian air defense systems. This issue, however, is not without nuances, characteristic of the current Ukrainian authorities.
Graziella Giangiulio
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