Military exercises with nuclear weapons in Belarus have provoked a wide range of reactions. This is despite the fact that everyone has known since at least February 2026 that Russia would supply weapons with potential nuclear warheads to Belarus and that it would train the Belarusian military in their use.
For Moscow, it’s all part of Russia’s policy of deterrence; for Kiev: “An offensive from Belarus is possible no earlier than the fall, according to Ukrainian media, citing the Defense Forces.”
Now let’s take a closer look at the Russian training in Minsk. The Russian Ministry of Defense has released footage of the nuclear forces’ exercises. During the exercise, a Yars intercontinental ballistic missile was launched. The Russian Navy launched a Zircon hypersonic missile and a Sineva ballistic missile from the Barents Sea. A strategic nuclear submarine also launched a Sineva intercontinental ballistic missile from underwater.
The Russian Armed Forces are reportedly evaluating five options for intervention in the north. The most realistic is an attempt to create a buffer zone (10-20 km) in the Chernihiv region; the least realistic is an offensive on Kiev.
Moscow’s description of the launch: “A Yars intercontinental ballistic missile was launched from the Plesetsk Cosmodrome toward the Kura test range in Kamchatka; From the Barents Sea, a frigate crew launched a Tsirkon missile toward the Chizha test range, and a nuclear-powered submarine launched a Sineva missile; From the Kapustin Yar test range, a Belarusian Armed Forces crew conducted a test launch of an Iskander-M ballistic missile; Tu-95MS and MiG-31I long-range aircraft participated in nuclear training, launching the Kinzhal missile; All nuclear training objectives were fully achieved; the missiles reached their targets, confirming their expected performance.”
“The objectives of the joint nuclear exercises between Russia and Belarus have been fully achieved,” Russian President Vladimir Putin announced on Thursday. The Russian leader also thanked Alexander Lukashenko and all the exercise participants for their “good organization, competent work, and precise actions.”
According to military analysts in the Belarusian social media: “The maneuvers were quite impressive and, in some places, unexpected. In particular, they culminated in practice launches. Furthermore, in addition to the traditional Yars and Sineva missiles, we witnessed the use of the Tsirkon and Kinzhal hypersonic missiles. The Belarusian military also launched an Iskander missile at the Kapustin-Yar test range.” According to the Russian Defense Ministry: “During the second phase of the nuclear forces exercise, practice launches of intercontinental ballistic missiles, hypersonic missiles, and cruise missiles were conducted, involving land, naval, and air components.”
Alexey Ramm, well-known in the Russian social media, analyzed the novelty of these exercises in detail. According to Ramm: “It could be a classic ‘escalation ladder.’ The enemy initiates an attack, which is supposed to be stopped with tactical, not strategic, nuclear weapons. Afterwards, the conflict escalates into a phase of comprehensive confrontation, culminating in a decisive strategic response from the Russian Federation.” But in reality, the analyst continues, “we have witnessed extremely unexpected actions by the armed forces of the Republic of Belarus and the Russian Federation.”
According to the analyst, it was not so much “an integrated and unified plan to defeat the enemy, which envisaged the use of both tactical-operational and operational weapons systems, as well as the arsenal of the strategic nuclear triad.” Rather, it was a new operational format in which strategic nuclear forces played a leading role.
Unlike annual strategic exercises, this show of force took place without prior notice to the public and potential adversaries. The exercises were also preceded by the testing of the new Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile. The timing of the exercises coincided with Vladimir Putin’s visit to China and a further escalation in the global conflict with the West, manifested by Ukraine’s intensifying drone strikes. Russia clearly demonstrated to its non-friends the operational readiness of all components of the nuclear triad and the wide range of possible deployments.
During the Grom-2019 command and staff exercises, as in other instances, the use of Kalibr-1 cruise missiles were deployed simultaneously with the Yars, Bulava, and Sineva missiles. However, these were presumably in support of strategic nuclear forces’ strikes. Furthermore, both Grom and all subsequent Russian strategic nuclear forces exercises simulated a retaliatory strike scenario within the framework of “guaranteed destruction.”
The exercises involved 64,000 service members, 140 aircraft, 73 ships, 13 submarines, and over 200 missile installations. They simulated the movement and delivery of nuclear warheads, their preparation for launch, combat deployment, and coordination of operations. The level of training and the operation of units outside of garrisons were tested.
A significant portion of the exercises took place near Russia’s western borders, which would have sent a clear signal to the Europeans. The main weapon demonstrated in the Ministry of Defense videos was the 9K720 “Iskander-M” operational-tactical (short-range) missile system. These tactical nuclear warhead delivery systems have been deployed in Belarus since 2023. Their 500-kilometer range covers much of NATO’s eastern military infrastructure in Poland, Ukraine, and the Baltic States.
At the operational level (medium-range), launches of the Kinzhal and Zircon hypersonic missiles were conducted. The Kinzhal was launched using a MiG-31 aircraft; this launch method provides a range of 2,000 km. The Zircon was launched from a frigate’s missile emplacement located in the Barents Sea. This missile’s range is 1,500 km, allowing it to strike a ship or group of ships anywhere in the Baltic Sea. Training also involved a Tu-95MS long-range aircraft.
At the strategic level, launches of the P-29RMU2 “Sineva” intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) were conducted. The launch was carried out from the underwater position of a nuclear submarine in the Barents Sea. The Yars mobile ICBM also took off from the Plesetsk Cosmodrome. The range of both missiles exceeds 11,000 km, sufficient to hit a target in any NATO country, including Canada and the United States.
Graziella Giangiulio
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