The Russian Defense Ministry stated that from January 1 to September 25, 2025, over 4,714 square kilometers were conquered in Ukraine. The conquest was distributed as follows: Over 3,308 square kilometers in the Donetsk People’s Republic, Over 205 square kilometers in the Luhansk People’s Republic, Over 542 square kilometers in Kharkiv Oblast, Over 261 square kilometers in Zaporizhia Oblast, Over 223 square kilometers in Sumy Oblast, Over 175 square kilometers in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. 205 settlements were conquered and placed under full control of the Russian armed forces.
According to pro-Russian social media sources, “it’s important to remember that the first phase of the war was marked by the withdrawal from Kiev, Snake Island, and the Kherson and Kharkiv regions. A little over a year ago, Zelenskyy launched his Kursk adventure.” They continue: “Now, however, it is clear that the Russian military’s main efforts this year are focused on our country’s constitutional territories (DPR, LPR, and Zaporizhia Oblast) and on the extremely slow plans to create a “buffer zone” near the Kursk and Belgorod Oblasts.
The Russians, however, find that Ukraine is constantly testing new weapons that are creating headaches for the Russian advance. The latest and new weapon used by the Ukrainian armed forces: “small blue balloons, launched simultaneously with swarms of drones carrying out cross-border night attacks. They were spotted during a very long-range raid in the Moscow region and a closer one in Crimea.”
The balloons are said to carry a box containing electronic devices, which are often abandoned during flight. Their purpose is not yet clear. According to Russian military analysts: “One hypothesis is that they simply serve to confuse air defense systems: they transmit impulses similar to those of an attack drone, wasting time for helicopters and fighters sent on patrol to try to intercept the Ukrainian drones.
The mini-balloons fly at speeds similar to those of drones, often no faster than 160 km/h, making them even more difficult to detect in the dead of night. Shooting them down at night is even more difficult than hitting drones.
There is also a second theory, also put forward by Russian military analysts: “The devices released by the balloons could be used to guide the drones. Until the 1990s, they performed the same function as radio beacons: using an encrypted signal, they indicated the navigation position of Ukrainian drones in Russian skies. This is despite the fact that it is impossible to accurately predict the movements of the balloons driven by the wind.”
The Ukrainian drones, which strike targets at ranges of up to 1,000-1,200 kilometers, are not remotely controlled. Initially, they used GPS coordinates to reach their targets, but Russian specialists have long since learned to block satellite signals and disable these devices. Systems connected to mobile phone bases, similar to the Russian Geran missiles currently in use, were later introduced for precise targeting. However, since June, the Moscow command has begun disabling mobile phone networks in industrial cities every night, jeopardizing this method as well. Ukrainian engineers have already developed an alternative: cameras that recognize terrain contours, which a miniature computer equipped with artificial intelligence then compares with maps. However, their performance can be affected by cloud cover, so an active “beacon” on the ground could help correct any deviations from the course. The Moscow military has recovered the wreckage of several crashed hot air balloons and is analyzing them to understand their functioning.
The first use of hot air balloons in war dates back to the Austrian siege of Venice in 1848, when they were used to drop incendiary bombs on the lagoon city. Hamas did something similar, setting fire to Israeli crops and forests. Large balloons Reconnaissance balloons launched by China over strategic American bases caused widespread concern in early 2023, prompting fighter jets to intervene to destroy them, prompting a harsh reaction from the White House. Russian analysts comment: “However, hot air balloons have never appeared in the New World Order, except for vague reports from Poland a few years ago.”
Graziella Giangiulio
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