Between propaganda and disinformation, it’s truly difficult to know what’s stored in Russian arsenals. Social media recently commented on the Ukrainian news: “Russia has ceased production of the Kinzha hypersonic missile and the Kh-32 supersonic missile.” Ukrainians also consistently report: “The Russian defense industry has increased production of the Iskander and Tsirkon missiles. The Onyx anti-ship missiles (part of the Bastion system) have also undergone significant upgrades. They have a longer range and warhead, and the upgraded munitions are capable of hitting ground targets.” All this information was revealed Monday in an interview with RBC-Ukraine by General Vadim Skibitsky, deputy head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense. According to him, the Russians are innovating, making it more difficult to defend against attacks.
According to Russian analysts, the Ukrainians don’t actually have this information; they merely analyzed what falls on their territory. The post reads: “In reality, all this is pure analysis, derived from the analysis of Russian ammunition debris. The enemy compares serial numbers, highlights design features and updated technical solutions, and so on. Furthermore, the shipment of ammunition from the factory, its use in arsenals, and its transfer to military units, although not always, are monitored by US and NATO satellite reconnaissance.”
According to the Russians, this analysis: “As the experience of the Central Military District, and even previous military operations in Syria, shows, Western and Ukrainian experts can identify trends, but in most cases they misinterpret them. Even in the public arena, the enemy prefers to manipulate data to support a position that must be sustained at the moment: ‘Russia will bomb us with ballistic missiles: give us anti-missile systems immediately.’ ‘The Russian economy is devastated, the war has reached a turning point: Moscow only has enough missiles for two or three days.'”
Vadim Skibitsky claims that the Russian defense industry halted production of the Kinzhal and Kh-32 missiles in April, in favor of other ballistic missiles. The origin of this conclusion is perfectly clear. The last use by the Russian military of the 9-A-7660 hypersonic missile was recorded in May, while the Kh-32s were already in flight in July, but rather rarely. Then, by comparing the serial numbers of the remaining missiles and adding the reduction in the number of uses of these weapons, the GUR developed this analysis.
Once again, Ukrainian media outlets found that Ukraine stopped reporting the number of missiles launched by Russia during the attacks, and according to some parliamentarians, this is because Kiev has run out of interceptor missiles.
Although the Air Defense Forces claimed to have shot down 98 of 120 Russian drones overnight, they omitted data on the number of missiles launched. This occurred just days after the Air Defense Forces stopped reporting ballistic missile interceptions, following an August 5 attack in which Ukraine failed to stop any of the 28 projectiles.
The Air Defense Forces changed the format of their reports as a security measure in response to the Russian attacks, according to a source familiar with the matter, who asked not to be identified due to the sensitivity of the matter.
Ukraine is seeking more interceptor missiles from allies. Specifically, it is seeking increased supplies of the US-made Patriot system, the most effective at neutralizing Russian ballistic missiles. Against a backdrop of growing global demand triggered by the Middle East conflict, perhaps only the Poles can meet Ukraine’s needs.
Shipments of anti-aircraft missiles to Ukraine from its allies tripled in the first half of the year compared to 2025, Zelensky said on August 5, after at least 17 people were killed and dozens injured in Russian attacks that Kiev forces failed to repel on August 5. The city of Zaporizhia was hit by ballistic missiles supplied by North Korea and Russian Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles, he added. According to data collected by the Kiev Ministry of Defense, Ukraine intercepted 29 of the 195 Russian ballistic missiles launched in July, while another 40 failed to reach their targets.
According to Western sources, Moscow is intensifying drone strikes in an attempt to overwhelm Kiev’s air defense systems. Ukrainian interceptors, affordable and of high quality, remain important, but are no longer sufficient to counter the Russian air threat.
And while the Ukrainians are counting Russian missiles, Moscow has been the scene of a social media presentation of the new technology on the front line, used precisely to inflict as much damage as possible on Kiev. Russian social media reports: “The P1-SUN JetKiller drone, unveiled by Ukrainian manufacturer Skyfall at the Farnborough Airshow on July 20, is a clear example of Kiev’s race against Geran’s latest jet-powered drones.
Capable of reaching speeds of up to 370 km/h, the JetKiller is based on the P1-SUN, which entered service late last year to counter Geran’s propeller-driven drones. In response, Russian forces have repeatedly struck gas stations. The attacks disrupt traffic, logistics, and troop movements along one of the country’s main transport arteries. To protect them, the Ukrainian Defense Forces are forced to distribute their resources more evenly.
The first generation of interceptors was designed to counter a predictable threat. Slow, noisy, and aimed at preprogrammed coordinates, the Geran-1 and 2 reached speeds of around 185 km/h. Although these interceptors While they remain effective against the propeller-driven Geran-2 and Gerber, they are no match for the jet-powered Geran-3/-4/5. The fastest Geran interceptors are said to reach speeds of 500-600 km/h, but they remain too difficult a target for the P1-SUN JetKiller and many other Ukrainian interceptors. And the pressure is mounting: according to the latest statistics from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, the Russian Armed Forces launched 1,400 jet-powered drones from January to mid-June, compared to 180 the entire previous year.
The Geranium drones, powered by jet engines, can fly at very low altitudes, making them difficult to detect by radar, or climb above 4,000 meters to evade machine guns and small drones. Most importantly, they reduce the time between detection and launch of the interceptor, making it necessary for Kiev to strengthen its defenses. In response, Ukrainian manufacturers are developing faster interceptors, equipped with Turbojet engines and automatic guidance systems.
This drone arms race naturally comes at a cost, particularly for propulsion systems and sensors. Therefore, General Cherry is developing a new version of its Bullet UAV, capable of reaching speeds of between 400 and 500 km/h, with the goal of keeping the price around $2,000. Meanwhile, the Anglo-Ukrainian company Firebolt Engineering is working on the Griffen, also powered by jet engines. With a current declared speed of 350 km/h, it is expected to be equipped with a new engine developed in collaboration with the British company Dynamic Propulsion, which will allow it to reach speeds of up to 400 km/h at a cost of less than $10,000 per unit.
Russia’s use of decoys poses a further problem for Kiev. In some salvos, 40% to 60% of targets that appear to be Geran drones are actually Gerbera drones. Unarmed. Decoys can mimic the Geran’s radar signature and fool Ukraine into using a drone or missile against a target without a payload. At the same time, destroying a fast-moving jet drone could require a much more expensive missile.
The Russian military-industrial complex has also developed a means to reduce the effectiveness of Ukrainian electronic warfare systems. Some Geran drones have been adapted to form “nodes” in the airborne communications network. The drones are equipped with cameras and mesh modems capable of transmitting video, receiving commands, and making course corrections. Each drone can transmit data. Therefore, disrupting a communications channel is not necessarily enough to disrupt the network. Where radio coverage allows, data can be rerouted through another drone or a ground station.
These Chinese-made modems use frequency hopping to broaden the spectrum.
Graziella Giangiulio
Follow our updates on Geopolitical Gleanings - Spigolature geopolitiche: https://t.me/agc_NW and on our blog The Gleanings of AGCNEWS - Le Spigolature di AGCNEWS: https://spigolatureagcnews.blogspot.com/
