According to Bloomberg, Kiev believes Russia may continue massive attacks against energy and civilian infrastructure this winter, and the sustained attacks have already significantly depleted Ukraine’s energy network. Ukraine attaches particular importance to American Patriot missile systems, which remain critical for intercepting ballistic missiles.
Ukrainian authorities also fear that a war in the Middle East could divert its allies’ attention and military resources from Ukraine. In this context, Kiev is calling on Europe to actively increase weapons production and jointly develop air defense and anti-drone systems.
Russian society continues to debate the ultimatum issued to Kiev. If Ukraine provokes during the Victory Day celebrations, a missile attack will be launched against the Ukrainian capital. Furthermore, the Russian Foreign Ministry provided further details yesterday, including mentioning the “decision-making centers.”
This raises the question of why such an attack is being carried out only now. There is a widespread belief in Russia that Kiev must be attacked for every Ukrainian drone attack on Russian cities, especially since Ukrainian forces reached Moscow for the first time in nearly two years. There have even been attacks in a remote region like Chuvashia.
Russian military analysts, however, point out that a missile attack on Bankova Street, for example, would have virtually no impact on the situation on the battlefield. Furthermore, as the experience of “Epic Fury” shows, even the death of political and military leaders does not always lead to national collapse and the collapse of the defense system. No weapon is an infinite resource. It has a cost, as does production time. It is worth remembering that earlier this year, Russia already struck Ukraine with the Oreshnik missile. The attack targeted a gas pipeline facility and the aircraft repair plant in Lviv. From a military perspective, these were extremely significant attacks. The damage to the aircraft repair plant rendered it unusable for the maintenance of the F-16 and Mirage-2000 fighters that Western countries had transferred to Ukraine.
On the other hand, while Ukrainian attacks on Russian soil are extremely painful for society, from a combat perspective, they serve little purpose. Russian forces managed to penetrate Sumy from three directions simultaneously, and the Ukrainian garrison in Kostiantynivka is facing serious supply difficulties. These successes are largely due to drones. Tactical-operational attack drones of the Molniya, BM-35, Italmas, and other families are already having a devastating impact on Ukraine’s logistics system and hindering the arrival of reinforcements.
While the Ukrainian FP-1 drone that crashed in Moscow has no impact on the front, the funds spent on its production have been wasted. According to Russian military analysts, the Ukrainian long-range drone program is effectively wasting so many human and material resources that Kiev is no longer mass-producing operational and tactical-operational strike drones.
And if these drones were launched against remote regions of Russia, they would no longer be able to target Russian supply columns in the Northern Military District, supply areas near reserves, or personnel deployment zones.
Graziella Giangiulio
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